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401. Can Italy and Spain survive rates of 6-7%?

Author:
Daniel Gros
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
The sentiment that the euro is now in real danger is based in large part on the widespread conviction that interest rates of 6-7% are simply unsustainable for both Italy and Spain., After taking a closer look at the fundamentals, however, Daniel Gros concludes in this new Policy Brief that both countries should be able to live with this level of interest rates for quite some time, but only if they mobilize domestic savings, which remain strong in both countries. For Spain, some debt/equity swaps are also needed.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe, Spain, and Italy

402. Unholy compromise in the eurozone and how to right it

Author:
Stefano Micossi
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Two years after the first Greek rescue in May 2010, crisis management in the eurozone has still failed to restore confidence. A vivid picture of the situation can be found in Figure 1: the constellation of spreads on ten-year sovereign debts over the Bund in the eurozone is wider than it was before monetary union, as though financial markets had already discounted its breakdown. Temporary respites, notably in the early part of 2012, have not interrupted the trend of increasing divergence that risks undermining the credibility of adjustment efforts under way.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe

403. Pre-empting Technical Barriers in the Single Market

Author:
Jacques Pelkmans and Anabela Correia de Brito
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Effective enforcement and compliance with EU law is not just a legal necessity, it is also of economic interest since the potential of the Single Market will be fully exploited. Enforcement barriers generate unjustified costs and hindrances or uncertainty for cross-border business and might deprive consumers from receiving the full benefit of greater choice and/or cheaper offers.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Law
Political Geography:
Europe

404. Central Banks in Times of Crisis: The FED vs. the ECB

Author:
Daniel Gros, Cinzia Alcidi, and Alessandro Giovannini
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Different economic and financial structures require different crisis responses. Different crises also require different tools and resources. The first 'stage' of the financial crisis (2007-09) was similar on both sides of the Atlantic, and the response was also quite similar. The second stage of the crisis is unique to the euro area. Increasing financial disintegration within the region has forced the ECB to become the central counterparty for the entire cross-border banking market and to intervene in the sovereign bond market of some stressed countries. The actions undertaken by the European Central Bank (ECB), however, have not always represented the best response, in terms of effectiveness, consistency and transparency. This is especially true for the Securities Markets Programme (SMP): by de facto imposing its absolute seniority during the Greek PSI (private sector involvement), the ECB has probably killed its future effectiveness.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe

405. Managing the Global Response to Maritime Piracy

Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The Atlantic Council promotes constructive US leadership and engagement in international affairs based on the central role of the Atlantic community in meeting the international challenges of the 21st century. The Council embodies a nonpartisan network of leaders who aim to bring ideas to power and to give power to ideas by stimulating dialogue and discussion about critical international issues with a view to enriching public debate and promoting consensus on appropriate responses in the Administration, the Congress, the corporate and nonprofit sectors and the media in the United States and among leaders in Europe, Asia, Africa, and the Americas. Through its diverse networks, the Council builds broad constituencies to support constructive US leadership and policies. Its program offices publish informational analyses, convene conferences among current and/or future leaders, and contribute to the public debate in order to integrate the views of knowledgeable individuals from a wide variety of backgrounds, interests and experiences.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Economics, Military Strategy, and Maritime Commerce
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, Europe, Asia, and Atlantic Ocean

406. Envisioning 2030: US Strategy for a Post-Western World

Author:
Robert A. Manning
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The National Intelligence Council in its new report, Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds, argues that the historic moment the Obama Administration now confronts “recalls past transition points–such as 1815, 1919, 1945, and 1989–when the path forward was not clear-cut and the world faced the possibility of different global futures.”
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, Globalization, Politics, and Hegemony
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Atlantic Ocean

407. Is the Twin Deficits Hypothesis Valid in the case of Turkey?

Author:
Fuat Sekmen and Unsal Ozan Kahraman
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Bilgi
Institution:
Değişim Yayınları
Abstract:
This study deals with the relationship between the current account deficit and the budget deficit in Turkey. Artificial Neural Networks are employed to investigate this relationship. According to the results of the application the twin deficits hypothesis which indicates a positive correlation between the two deficits isn’t valid in Turkey. As this paper tries to analyze the factors accounting for the absence of this kind of correlation, it develops a flexible understanding which doesn’t refuse a hypothesis or a theory (the twin deficits hypothesis) completely, on the contrary, emphasizes the importance of investigating the conditions in which a hypothesis, theory or a model is valid.
Topic:
Economics, Budget, Finance, and Deficit
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Asia

408. Turkey-Ukraine Relations: High Potential, Low Voltage

Author:
Habibe Özdal and Viktoriia Demydova
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Strategic Research Organization (USAK)
Abstract:
With its strategic location of the existing power lines and economic potential, Ukraine, as one of the most important countries of Eastern Europe, is one of the pilot countries with which Turkey aims to develop its relations in an 'exemplary manner'. Besides, since Ankara and Kiev, share common values and priorities within the framework of preserving stability in the region, the Black Sea neighborhood adds another dimension to bilateral relations.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Ukraine, and India

409. The Reform of European Economic Governance : Towards a Sustainable Monetary Union?

Author:
Stijn Verhelst
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
The euro is a rather unusual currency as it is shared by a union of largely independent states. This results in a single supranational monetary union, while most 'economic' matters are decided on a national level. A key challenge in such a system is to ensure that the different levels of decision-making do not undermine the advantages of the common currency. For this reason, the European monetary union has been buttressed by economic integration, resulting in the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU).
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis, and Governance
Political Geography:
Europe

410. The Single Market in need of a strategic relaunch

Author:
Tinne Heremans
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
On the 27th of October 2010 the Commission finally published its long-awaited Communication “Towards a Single Market Act” with the ambitious objective of relaunching the Single Market. It is beyond doubt that the market integration project is indeed in need of a serious boost. On the one hand, the “acquis” should be buttressed more firmly against protectionist reactions, citizen distrust and integration lethargy more generally. On the other hand, the untapped growth potential – in domains suffering from persistent bottlenecks as well as in new sectors – needs to be better exploited. It will however be argued in this contribution that, in its present form, the Commission's “Draft Single Market Act” (Draft SMA) does not contain all the strategic building blocks needed to address the key challenge of reengaging the different actors in the market integration project and genuinely revamp the Single Market. Therefore, on the basis of an examination of the gaps and defaults in the Draft SMA's approach, and against the background of the preparatory documents presented by Mario Monti and the European Parliament, some suggestions for possible strategic improvements to be included in the final SMA will be made.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Regional Cooperation, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
Europe