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1. US Elections - The optimistic worst-case scenario

Author:
Christian Kvorning Lassen
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
Christian Kvorning Lassen, Deputy Director of the EUROPEUM Institute for European Policy, comments on the US presidential election. The US elections will come down to the wire, and will be determined by mail-in votes. While this was fully expected during the COVID-19 pandemic, it was also the worst-case scenario given Trump’s persistent attempts to delegitimize mail-in votes, despite lack of clear evidence of their fraudulence. Much like 2016, the key battleground states are Pennsylvania (20 EC votes), Michigan (16) and Wisconsin (10), with mail-in votes deciding their outcome. As of this writing, Pennsylvania has counted 700.000 out of 2.5 million mail-in votes, of which Biden has won 71.7% of them to Trump’s 21.3%. Michigan has counted 425.000 out of 2.48 million, with Biden winning 65% to Trump’s 33%. Finally, Wisconsin still needs to count 1.3 million mail-in votes. Should the trend of Biden winning 2/3 of all mail-in votes, Biden will be a clear election winner, giving the Biden camp cause for optimism.
Topic:
Elections, Donald Trump, Pandemic, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

2. Citizenship, the Vector of Present? Considerations de lege lata Based on the Polish Domestic Law

Author:
Małgorzata Babula
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:
Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:
The modern world is opening up to a series of innovations, differences and broad- ly understood diversity. The pace of changes becomes a peculiar substructure of creating patchwork nations. The variety of races, colors, religions and cultures. All of the above con- tain a point which, like an electron, resembles an omnipresent “variant”. This constant value is a human being. We are accompanied by a sense of belonging to a specific place, culture and values. On this basis, we expect something (e.g. having rights and freedoms). Citizenship seems to be a binder that puts us in a clearly narrowed community with certain values and often allows us to distinguish our own “self ”. Created by history, absorbing presence, citizen- ship is an important element of our affiliation to the country, to culture and to the values hid- den behind them. In the world of diversity, it seems to be a desirable and important element. The purpose of this article is to discuss the contemporary role assigned to citizenship, as well as to show the citizenship as a factor shaping the position of the individual and justifying the distinction made in specific areas of human functioning in the state.
Topic:
Law, Constitution, Citizenship, Civil Rights, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland

3. Italy's Unruly Rulers

Author:
Riccardo Alcaro and Nathalie Tocci
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
A coalition government that is largely, if not entirely, alien to mainstream party politics has run Italy since June 2018. The coalition is made up of the League, a right-wing anti-immigration party, and the anti-establishment Five Star Movement (Movimento 5 Stelle, M5S), which refuses to categorize itself as either left or right wing. While the two parties did not campaign on a joint agenda, and actually competed in the March 2018 election, a number of important commonalities are present, particularly if one looks at party politics not through the horizontal “left-right” prism but through a vertical “open-closed” one.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Elections, Political Parties, European Parliament, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:
Europe, Italy, and European Union

4. France’s Terrorism Fight

Author:
Łukasz Jurczyszyn
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The fight against terrorism is one of President Emmanuel Macron’s political priorities. Activities in this field are carried out in two main directions, one, in the country, through new institutions and regulations and, two, abroad, through military operations and by increasing development assistance in Africa and the Middle East. More and more evidence indicates that they have been having the expected operational and political effects. The number of detected and subverted terrorist plots is increasing and Macron’s initiatives in this area can count on considerable public support.
Topic:
National Security, Terrorism, Islamic State, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, France, and Africa

5. Estimating the Position of the European Union: A Tool for Macro-Quantitative Studies

Author:
Nils Dupont and Detlef Jahn
Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Kolleg-Forschergruppe (KFG)
Abstract:
This paper develops an index for estimating the position of the European Union in various policy fields and ideological dimensions. The index is designed for macro-comparative studies, which currently mainly use a dummy variable as a proxy for the impact of the EU on domestic politics, policies and outcomes. The index assesses the position of each European institution (European Council, Council of Ministers, Commission, and European Parliament) and takes the frequently changing decision-making rules between these institutions into account. Based on an actor-centered approach the index links policy preferences of actors with formal and informal decision-making rules. The index thereby appraises the impact of the EU on its member states in greater detail and is therefore suitable for analyses of most urgent research questions concerning the relationship between the EU and its member states. Furthermore, the index allows a calculation of the positional and ideological misfits between the EU and each individual member state on an annual basis. Questions about an ideological bias of the EU or problems of compliance can thus be analyzed with greater precision than before. To illustrate our index we use data on the left-right dimension, which has proven to be highly relevant in macro-quantitative studies. The data is available for quarterly and annual longitudinal analyses from 1966 to 2012.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:
Europe

6. Russian Politics in Times of Change: Internal and External Factors of Transformation

Author:
Denis S. Alexeev
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Connections
Institution:
Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:
The first few months of 2014 brought an unprecedented collapse of the Russian Federa-tion’s image on the world stage, the worst since the end of the Cold War. The events in Ukraine and the reaction to them by a significant number of countries in the interna-tional community, quickly demoted Russia to that group of countries whose foreign policy provokes harsh condemnation. For the first time in decades, international sanc-tions have been put in place against Russia, adopted by a large number of the world’s largest countries, de facto downgrading Russia to the rank of a rogue state; these sanc-tions are intended to exert pressure on the elite, who are responsible for implementing certain foreign policy decisions. For many experts, the events are associated with a new and sudden sea-change in Russia’s foreign policy. However, it appears to us that the cur-rent stage of cooling relations with the West is a logical consequence of the way in which the Russian state was constructed in recent years; in fact, a different scenario could hardly have been anticipated. This article presents the author’s view of the mecha-nisms and logic that shaped Russia’s foreign policy course, which has evolved through several iterations in the last three years. The below analysis could facilitate a fuller un-derstanding of Russian motives in international relations, and help find opportunities and mechanisms for dialogue between Russia and the West.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, State Building, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Eastern Europe