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361. Reform Prospects during Mubarak's Fifth Term

Author:
Khairi Abaza
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On September 27, Hosni Mubarak will be sworn in for a fifth consecutive term as president of Egypt. Mubarak was reelected according to new electoral procedures introduced earlier this year that allowed for a competitive election between multiple candidates. The opposition, united in its calls for more democracy, criticized the reforms, claiming that they only aimed at strengthening the regime's grip on power. For his part, Mubarak pledged to introduce further political reforms during his fifth mandate. What would a reform program look like and what would its prospects be?
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Egypt

362. Does Financial Openness Promote Economic Integration? Some Evidence from Europe and the CIS

Author:
Fabrizio Carmignani and Abdur Chowdhury
Publication Date:
12-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
We study whether financial openness facilitates the economic integration of formerly centrally planned economies with the EU- 15. Two dimensions of economic integration are considered: cross-country convergence of per-capita incomes and bilateral trade in goods and services. We find that more financially open economies effectively catch-up faster and trade more with the EU-15. These integration-enhancing effects occur over and above any effect stemming from domestic financial deepening and other factors determining growth and trade.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe

363. The Effects of (within and with EU) Regional Integration: Impact on Real Effective Exchange Rate Volatility, Institutional Quality and Growth for MENA Countries

Author:
Iftekhar Hasan and Leonardo Becchetti
Publication Date:
12-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
We analyse two potential effects arising from regional (and with EU) integration—increased quality of institutions (including the quality of financial institutions) and, economic policies and reduced multilateral exchange rate volatility— in a conditional convergence growth framework for MENA countries. To this purpose we outline an ad hoc methodology which implements the traditional bilateral exchange rate measures to test effects of multilateral exchange rate volatility on growth of per capita GDP. Our estimates show that both factors (quality of institutions and reduction of multilateral volatility) significantly and positively affect growth and conditional convergence. We observe that MENA countries are not far from EU and OECD countries in terms of exchange rate volatility, but much below in terms of institutional quality. We finally simulate the potential effects of an improvement in institutional quality in MENA countries on their process of growth and conditional convergence. We conclude arguing that regional integration may be highly beneficial for such countries, mainly because of its effects on institutional quality.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe

364. Controlling Foreigners, Passengers, Citizens : Surveillance and Counterterrorism

Author:
Valsamis Mitsilegas
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Cultures & Conflits
Institution:
Cultures & Conflits
Abstract:
Recent years witnessed calls for the intensification of surveillance and the monitoring of people globally. This article will examine this intensification of surveillance in the European Union, by analysing legislation requiring carriers to transmit to immigration authorities passenger data, an agreement between the Community and the US on the transfer of passenger name records (PNR) to US authorities, and EU plans to introduce biometrics in passports and visas and enhance the interoperability of EU databases (such as SIS and VIS). These developments, justified by a 'war on terror' discourse, widen the net of surveillance and raise a number of questions regarding legitimacy, democracy and the protection of fundamental rights in the EU. They also appear to be at odds with the concept of the EU as a borderless area. The article will address these issues by analysing the negotiations, content and implications of these initiatives. Ces dernières années les demandes d'intensification de la surveillance et des contrôles du mouvement des personnes au niveau mondial se sont développées. Cet article examine cette intensification de la surveillance au sein de l'UE en analysant la législation obligeant les transporteurs à fournir les données personnelles des passagers aux services d'immigration, un accord entre l'UE et les Etats-Unis sur le transfert des « passenger name records » (PNR) aux autorités américaines, et les plans européens d'introduction de données biométriques aux passeports et visas et d'amélioration de l'interopérabilité des bases de données européennes (SIS et VIS notamment). Ces développements, justifiés par un discours de « guerre au terrorisme », élargissent le réseau de la surveillance et soulèvent un certain nombre de questions sur la légitimité, la démocratie, et la protection des droits fondamentaux dans l'UE. Ils apparaissent également en décalage avec le concept de l'UE comme espace sans frontières. Ce texte abordera ces questions en analysant les négociations, le contenu et les implications de telles initiatives.
Topic:
Development
Political Geography:
Europe

365. Foreword: Franco-Brazilian Dialogue on Violence and Democracy

Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Cultures & Conflits
Institution:
Cultures & Conflits
Abstract:
In France as in Brazil, violence and its modes of usage are thesubject of vivid and intense debates. The acts of violence inquestion have, however, little in common. The authors of this newissue of Cultures Conflits propose to examine the terms of thesedebates that feature and combine in complex shapes myths of nationaldemocracies, media representations, and the (in)abilities of thestate to effectively regulate the social sphere. These Franco-Brazilian dialogues on violence and democracy are part of a largercultural exchange linking since long Latin America and Europe - as Glauber Rocha and Roberto Rossellini remind us. An asymetricexchange, if any, marked by the feeling of being perpetually trappedin an unfinished development. This has, however, never prevented themto show significant inventive capacities, .Confllictual dialogue, useful when the (re)discovery of self isdeveloped through the mirror of the other.
Topic:
Development
Political Geography:
Europe and Brazil

366. Belarus : Is a Peaceful Turn Towards Democracy Possible?

Publication Date:
12-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Described as the last remaining dictatorship in Europe, Belarus is scheduled to have a presidential election in 2006 that could prove crucial to the future of the country. After nonviolent democratic revolutions in Georgia and Ukraine, questions arise about similar changes in Belarus: Is a peaceful transition to democracy in Belarus possible? And if so, what would be needed to make that happen?
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and Georgia

367. A Special Part of Europe: Nation, State and Religion among Orthodox Slavs

Author:
Biljana Vankovska and Håkan Wiberg
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
The paper studies how nation, state and religion – in particular: churches – are related among Orthodox South Slavs: Bulgarians, Serbs, Macedonians and Montenegrins. The close relations between (self-conceived) nations and churches go back to the Ottoman Empire, and seem to have been strengthened by the conflicts in Former Yugoslavia since 1990. The close relation between state and nation go back to how the Ottoman empire was dissolved and have also been strengthened by the same conflicts, even though all states proclaim themselves as non- discriminatory in this respect. The close relation between church and state also has long historical roots, but is more ambiguous today, with elements of competition as well as cooperation – and the latter is seen by many as having gone too far under communism. It is notable that where there are attempts to stabilise a separate identity – in Macedonia and Montenegro – establishing separate churches is a part of this on par with defining separate languages, rewriting history, etc. and the churches are seen as important national symbols even among quite secularised groups; and the same is true for the resistance against separation from the Serbian Orthodox Church.
Topic:
Development, Government, and Religion
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, Bulgaria, Macedonia, and Montenegro

368. Measuring the Economic Impact of an EU–GCC Free Trade Agreement

Author:
David Kernohan and Dean A. DeRosa
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Economic growth rates in the Gulf region have languished in recent years and need to be raised to accommodate the rapidly growing populations and social aspirations of the region. Using a simple model of world trade, this report investigates the economic impacts of the new customs union of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and the proposed free trade agreement (FTA) between the GCC and European Union. The quantitative results suggest that the new customs union and proposed EU-GCC free trade agreement both appreciably expand trade and improve economic welfare in the GCC countries, with little significant economic impact on the EU. As expected, the FTA results in larger GCC economic gains than the customs union because it affords GCC consumers greater opportunity to enjoy imports at internationally competitive prices. Although welfare gains under the proposed FTA closely approximate those under open regionalism (concerted trade liberalisation on a most favoured nation basis), reducing the 5% GCC common external tariff to about 3% as part of the FTA negotiations would not only ensure near-maximum trade performance and welfare gains but also add further to the attractiveness of the GCC countries as a location for foreign direct investment.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Treaties and Agreements, and Population
Political Geography:
Europe

369. Why Is There a Productivity Problem in the EU?

Author:
Francesco Daveri
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Magazines and newspapers often refer to or even take for granted the economic decline of the EU, particularly when contrasting the EU data with US data. The first part of this paper poses the question of whether IT – as often alleged – is really the only cause for the EU's productivity slowdown. The conclusion is that it is not. The non-IT part of the economy has not only contributed to the slowdown but appears to have crucially contributed to the EU-US growth gap as well. There is thus little reason for the EU to target IT-diffusion as an intermediate goal, as implied by the Lisbon strategy. The second part of the paper, after showing that the growth slowdown comes from the reduction of non-IT capital deepening and the lack of acceleration in total factor productivity growth, argues that the slowdown of capital deepening will continue. The scarce resources available for enhancing growth should concentrate on providing incentives to R and innovation at large, rather than financing traditional infrastructures. This is at odds with the goals pursued by the EU within the framework of the European Growth Initiative.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe

370. Are the Balance of Payments Deficits in the Baltic Countries Sustainable?

Author:
Jorgen Drud Hansen and Morten Hansen
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
For almost a decade all three Baltic countries have witnessed substantial deficits on the current accounts of the balance of payments. This paper discusses whether this situation should be a matter of concern. Recent literature on the sustainability of balance of payments deficits is reviewed and put into a Baltic context. The main conclusion is that the recurrent large deficits in the Baltic countries pose a risk for the fixed exchange-rate policies until the countries adopt the euro. In the longer term, large deficits will influence the time path of convergence of living standards between the Baltic countries and the EU as a whole.
Topic:
Development and Economics
Political Geography:
Europe and Eastern Europe