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381. A Resolvable Frozen Conflict? Designing a Settlement for Transnistria

Author:
Stefan Wolff
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI)
Abstract:
The conflict over Transnistria is a territorial dispute in which one of the conflict parties (Transnistria) seeks independence while the other (Moldova) aims to restore its full sovereignty and territorial integrity. For close to two decades, the situation has been stagnant: a ceasefire agreement signed in 1992 in Moscow between the Russian and Moldovan presidents at the time—Yeltsin and Snegur—established a trilateral peacekeeping mission (Russia, Moldova, Transnistria) and a buffer zone along the Dniestr/Nistru River. Protected by these arrangements and an additional Russian military presence, Transnistria has developed into a de-facto state of its own, albeit without international recognition and heavily dependent on Russia.
Topic:
Territorial Disputes, Minorities, Ethnicity, Conflict, Settlements, Independence, and Identity
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Moldova, and Transnistria

382. Polyphonic Country: A Peace Zone in Georgia and South Caucasus

Author:
Irakli Zurab Kakabadze
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Judith Reppy Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies
Abstract:
Since the breakup of the Soviet Union the South Caucasus region has been plagued with ethnic conflicts—some of them remnants from Soviet times. Armenia and Azerbaijan are in- volved in a lengthy confrontation over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh, and Georgia struggles with Russia over the two separatist regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. These conflicts have caused multiple military confrontations between different parties and are still unresolved even today. In June 1997 Johan Galtung, founder of Peace Research Institute of Oslo (PRIO), vis- ited three South Caucasian countries in his tour to promote the “Transcend Method” of conflict transformation and to conduct collaborative workshops with the students of Tbilisi State Univer- sity, Georgia; Yerevan State University, Armenia; and Khazar University, Azerbaijan. He held a large meeting with civil society representatives at the Caucasian Institute for Peace and Demo- cratic Development (CIPDD) in Tbilisi. It was at that roundtable discussion, chaired by CIPDD director Dr. Ghia Nodia, that Galtung proposed creating a Peace Zone and a new international airport at the border area between Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia—namely at the Red Bridge area, one of the centers for regional trade for the last fifty years of the 20th century. Dr. Galtung has suggested that creating a Peace Zone in the South Caucasus was the only viable alternative to the continuous state of war and ethnic conflict. Three years later, Ambassador John W. McDonald, Chairman and CEO of the Institute for Multi Track Diplomacy, attended a conference in Tbilisi, Georgia organized by the Georgia- America Business Development Council. At the conference, Ambassador McDonald also sug- gested creating a Peace Zone in Georgia, around the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, as a way of protecting Western energy interests through peace-building and economic development. Throughout the following nine years Ambassador McDonald continued to work with different Georgian governments on the formation of Peace Zones in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. In 2003 the Vice-Speaker of the Georgian Parliament, Vakhtang Rcheulishvili, came to Washington, DC to support the idea of Peace Zones in conflict regions. He met various U.S. officials like Senator Tom Harkin, Congressman Dennis Kucinich, and Matthew Bryza of the National Security Coun- cil at the White House. In 2004 the new Prime Minister of Georgia, Zurab Zhvania, endorsed Ambassador McDonald’s plan for Peace Zones in conflict regions. State Minister Bendukidze and former Minister of Conflict Resolution Khaindrava were also very much supportive of this plan. After the Rose Revolution, when nonviolent protests brought down the corrupt government of Eduard Shevardnadze in November 2003, the idea of Peace Zones became a grassroots con- cept popular with certain segments of civil society and university students in Georgia. Proposals for establishing Peace Zones faced a setback when the militaristic policies of Georgian, Russian, and separatist governments led to renewed violence, and in August 2008, a full war between different parties in South Ossetia. They still remain however, one of the most promising means of breaking the cycle of violence in the South Caucasus. The purpose of this paper is to present the case for a Peace Zone in Georgia.
Topic:
Civil Society, Diplomacy, Ethnic Conflict, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Caucasus, Eastern Europe, Soviet Union, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia

383. On the Palestinian issue, how much credit should Europe get amongst Arab opinion for its economic and political support?

Author:
Ralitsa Trifonova
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic Studies (CSS)
Abstract:
The formulation in the Council of Ministers’ of the European Union statement, issued on 8 December 2009, that within “an agreed time-frame” an independent Palestinian state should emerge on the Middle East’s political map raised hopes for a breakthrough in the remaining unsolved more than 60 years Palestinian issue. Together with the statement of the United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon in Moscow in the late 2009, this formulation is viewed by members of the Palestinian National Authority itself as a sign, in being specific in contrast with previous statements excluding a set timeframe for the establishment of a viable independent Palestinian state. After the unveiled Israeli violations of the international law during the last war over Gaza, a lot of voices not only in Palestine, but from all over world are revealing the impatience, reaching its nadir as Israeli behaviour does not represent threat only to the Palestinian people, but to the whole international system, especially when it shelled the headquarters of one the United Nations agencies on 15 January 2009. Some analysts believe that after the continued over 60 year’s failure of the USA to reach any significant progress to the benefit of the Palestinian people, it is high time Europe entered the Middle East arena as the third party, which would lead the two parties of the IsraeliPalestinian issue to a balanced solution, which does not reply on forced compromise. As the distrust of the Palestinian people with the USA is growing, Europe would only play a positive role if it were a trust-worthy ally itself. In order to give this alternative a positive perspective, we need to go back to the beginning of the European involvement in the Palestinian issue, to follow its own history of internal development, to explore the character of its economic aid and the existence of political support to the Palestinian people in their most turbulent and crucial moments in last four decades.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Human Rights, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, and Negotiation
Political Geography:
Europe, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America

384. Reciprocity or the Higher Ground? The Treatment of Ethnic Russians in Georgia After the "Spy Scandal" of 2006

Author:
David Szakonyi
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI)
Abstract:
Upon comparison of the treatment of one another‟s ethnic community following the spy scandal,‟ clear differences emerge between Russia‟s and Georgia‟s approaches to the issue. In contrast to the full-fledged targeting and expulsion of both legal and illegal residents on the part of Russia, Georgian officials, media outlets, and citizens responded admirably to the tenuous situation, with few reported incidents of discrimination. However, anti-Russian sentiments, at least at the elite political level, are still very much present among Georgian society, and the consequences of the agitated, negative rhetoric towards Russia by several Georgian leaders could lead to an environment of increased animosity towards Russian speakers. Without specific steps taken by the Georgian government, media outlets, and society as a whole to reduce anti-Russian sentiment, there is a danger of further incensed political relations negatively affecting interpersonal relations between the ethnic Russian minority and the Georgian majority.
Topic:
Intelligence, Minorities, Ethnicity, Discrimination, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Georgia

385. Violence in Kosovo and the Way Ahead

Author:
Harald Schenker
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI)
Abstract:
The events of 17-19 March 2004 have shocked both the international community and local institutions: protests against the alleged killing of three ethnic Albanian children escalated into violent clashes between ethnic Albanians and Serbs, and clashes with the international peacekeeping forces in Kosovo, UN Police and the NATO-led Kosovo Force (KFOR). The past four years seemed to be characterised by relatively positive developments in Kosovo. However, the recent troubles that left over 28 civilians and 1 KFOR soldier dead and hundreds wounded, 3,600 Serbs displaced, 30 Serbian churches and 200 Serbian houses destroyed, show that current policies on the international and local sides will have to be examined and revised and that, generally, much remains to be done in Kosovo for sustainable peace and genuine development. The fact that Kosovo Albanian leaders were as surprised by the events as the international community seems to indicate that the origins of the event are to be found below the political level and beyond the control of the political parties. In spite of their public appeals to stop the violence, the leadership failed to fully acknowledge responsibility and to deal with events appropriately, without relating the violence to issues of independence and transfer of competences. The events also indicate that the optimistic analysis of Kosovo’s current situation needs revisiting. Consequently, security policy and relations between the United Nations Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK) and Kosovo’s Provisional Institutions of SelfGovernment (PISG) have to be reconsidered. It is too early to tell what exactly will be the consequences of events on UNMIK and PISG policies and activities, especially regarding the standards implementation plan and, more generally, the future of the province. A careful review of the political and security situation and of the roles of the parties involved should be encouraged.
Topic:
Minorities, Ethnicity, Conflict, Violence, and Diversity
Political Geography:
Europe and Kosovo

386. Developing a New Euro-Atlantic Strategy for the Black Sea Region

Author:
Ronald D. Asmus
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
A series of historically unprecedented events have brought the attention of the West to the wider Black Sea region—that area including the littoral states of the Black Sea, Moldova, and the Southern Caucasus countries of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. An area that has heretofore been neglected by the Euro-Atlantic community is now starting to move from the periphery to the center of Western attention. Why has the West heretofore lacked such a strategy for the Black Sea region in the past and what has changed to make one so critical now? Four main factors explain the past lack of interest.
Topic:
NATO, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Moldova, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Black Sea

387. The Spectre of Territorial Division and the Ohrid Agreement

Author:
Eben Friedman
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI)
Abstract:
Should stalling win out over implementation of the Framework Agreement, support within the ethnic Albanian population for radical groups outside of politics could increase, and recent converts to the political process might be propelled back into the realm of violent action.12 If non-implementation risks provoking violence on the part of segments of the ethnic Albanian population, however, so is inexpert implementation of the Framework Agreement likely to encourage violence on the part of radical ethnic Macedonian groups anxious to capitalize on popular discontent associated not only with the terms of the Framework Agreement, but also with the country’s dire economic situation. Moreover, both of these scenarios are likely to increase support for proposals to partition Macedonia, the liabilities of which have been discussed above. Thus, given the alternatives, it is crucial that the provisions of the Framework Agreement be implemented competently and in a timely manner.
Topic:
Minorities, Ethnicity, Conflict, Borders, and Diversity
Political Geography:
Europe and Macedonia

388. Communists of Moldova and the Future of the Country's Ethnopolitical Conflicts

Author:
Pritt Jaerve
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI)
Abstract:
The plans of the communists of Moldova to take their country to the Russia-Belarus Union and to give Russian the status of an official language, if carried out, may contribute to the resolution of existing ethnopolitical conflicts in Moldova. However, the same plans might lead Moldova towards a federation, trigger ethnic mobilisation of the titular nation and create new dimensions of ethnopolitical tension in Moldovan society.
Topic:
Communism, Minorities, Ethnicity, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Europe and Moldova

389. Croat Self-Government in Bosnia - A Challenge for Dayton?

Author:
Florian Bieber
Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI)
Abstract:
In addition to these factors contributing to the establishment of the Croat selfgovernment, economic/criminal factors most certainly played a role.22 As the response of the HDZ to the takeover of the Hercegovačka Banka seems to suggest, the economic interests of the party and its leadership were threatened by the change of government in Bosnia and the more assertive policies of the international community in Bosnia. The Croat self-government is beyond doubt a considerable challenge to the Dayton Peace Accords. The demand of the Croat leadership for a third entity can only be dismissed with difficulty in light of the existence of a Serb entity. Despite this development being a challenge to the existing arrangement, the argument can be made that some effects have been positive. The call by the HDZ for Croat soldiers to desert the Federation army and the public display of the parallel Croat power structures have given the High Representative an opportunity to render the Federation more effective by excluding those officials, who have not only now, but throughout the past five and a half year, obstructed the implementation of the Dayton Peace Accords.
Topic:
Governance, Minorities, Leadership, Ethnicity, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Europe, Croatia, and Bosnia and Hercegovina

390. Armenian Minority in Georgia: Defusing Interethnic Tension

Author:
Natalie Sabanadze
Publication Date:
07-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI)
Abstract:
July 2000 was the deadline for the withdrawal of two Russian military bases in Vaziani (near Tbilisi) and in Gudauta (Abkhazia). The agreement on Russian military withdrawal was reached at the 1999 OSCE summit in Istanbul, according to which the first two bases would be withdrawn by July 1 of the current year, to be followed by the two remaining bases in Javakheti (Southern Georgia) and Batumi (Western Georgia) in the near future. Russia did not meet the deadline on the Gudauta base, which has become the main source of renewed Georgian-Russian political confrontation over the past few days. However, as the talks on withdrawal intensified, the issue of the Javakheti base also came to the fore. Javakheti is the southernmost region of Georgia where the local population is predominantly Armenian. Similar to Abkhazia, the situation in Javakheti is very sensitive and could be exacerbated by the Russian military withdrawal which is strongly opposed by the local Armenian population. This at first sight benign case of base closure is thus likely to involve broader issues of regional political alliances, competing national interests, minority policies and a potential risk of yet another ethnopolitical confrontation in the region. Among the most common descriptions of Javakheti found in both journalistic and scholarly literature is that of a "potential zone of conflict", "area waiting to explode" and in the more radical accounts 'the second Nagorno-Karabakh'. Despite many contrary predictions, Javakheti managed to maintain peaceful interethnic relations and to survive in peace and relative stability. However, in order to maintain the fragile peace and cooperation much has to be done in terms of minority protection and power-sharing structures within Georgia. What follows is a brief discussion of the Armenian minority in Georgia in the context of ongoing regional geopolitical changes, interests and vulnerabilities of the states involved. In addition, Javakheti here is regarded as a zone of ethnopolitical tension which requires serious efforts, and well-developed preventive measures to avoid its deterioration into a zone of conflict.
Topic:
Minorities, Ethnicity, Conflict, and Protected People
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Georgia