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302. Russia-Israel Relations: Expectations and Reality
- Author:
- Micky Aharonson
- Publication Date:
- 11-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Syria remains the main point of contention between the two countries.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Bilateral Relations, Conflict, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Middle East, Israel, and Syria
303. The Economic Forces of Victory Versus Those of Defeat: An analysis of the Greek Economic and Military Mobilization of the 1909-1923 Period
- Author:
- Ioannis Salavrakos
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
- Institution:
- Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- The intellectual aspiration of the paper is to highlight the economic forces, which played an immense role in the wars in which Greece participated during the 1909-1923 period. These were four major conflicts: The two Balkan wars of 1912-1913 against the Ottoman Empire and Bulgaria; the First World War (1914-1918) and the Greek-Turkish war of 1919-1922. The tragic period started with Greek victories and ended with the greatest defeat of the modern Greek state. Although these conflicts were different, there is a clear nexus between them. In the Greek as well as the international bibliography, the majority of studies highlight the strategic, tactical, operational, diplomatic, psychological dimensions of the conflicts of the period, as well as, the personal motives of political and military leaders. Under this intellectual framework, the economic forces of the conflict are marginalized by most academics. The final conflict of the period is primarily known as the ‘Campaign of Asia-Minor’ in the Greek bibliography, whereas in the Turkish bibliography it is considered as ‘the Great Patriotic War.’ Thus in this article we aim to demonstrate that the conflicts of the period are connected and also that the Greek defeat of 1922 was the outcome of a chain of miscalculations which the Greek side has made, but above all it was the nexus of limited economic resources, diplomatic errors and wrong tactical decision making in the front. The structure of the article is as follows: The first section highlights the concept of ‘Megali Idea,’ which defined Greek foreign and defence policy during the 1844-1923 period. This section highlights the crucial developments of the 1909-1919 decade just before the war of the 1919-1922 period and demonstrates that the war developments were directly associated with those of the previous decade period. Thesecondsection analyses the strategic and tactical errors by the Greek side during the conflict and associates them with the economic forces. The third section highlights the Turkish tactical, economic and diplomatic advantages and demonstrates how these were associated to economic power. The fourth section provides an analysis based on the options, which the Greek side had but failed to materialize. Conclusions follow. (We point out that all the dates are with the new Gregorian calendar versus the old Julian calendar).
- Topic:
- Economics, Military Strategy, Military Affairs, Conflict, and Mobilization
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Greece, Balkans, and Ottoman Empire
304. Not Our War: Iraq, Iran and Syria’s Approaches towards the PKK
- Author:
- I. Aytac Kadioglu
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
- Institution:
- Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
- Abstract:
- Terrorist violence led by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) is one of the major issues of Turkey since the 1980s. This violence is based upon Kurdish ethnic identity aimed towards establishing an independent Kurdish state in Turkey’s southeast, northern Iraq, northern Syria and north-western Iran. Despite this aim, the terrorist campaign of the PKK predominantly targets security forces and civilians in Turkey. However, the existence of a terrorist group such a long time raises a question of the impact of external support on the formation and maintenance of the PKK. While Turkey has criticised constantly its southern neighbours on the PKK’s activities and tactics, the regional approaches have been largely neglected in the existing scholarly literature. This article aims to close this gap by focusing on the role played by Iraq, Iran and Syria in the PKK terrorism and Turkey’s counter-terrorism policies. The article argues that the major reasons for the unsuccessful result of Turkey’s effort to destroy the PKK were the approaches of ignorance of the PKK activities and the use of the group as a trump card by the three neighbours and insufficient policies to keep under control the regional dimension of the conflict. The article critically analyses historical relationships between these three states and Turkey to explore how the regional dimension has affected the resolution of this conflict.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, War, Ethnicity, Conflict, and State Sponsored Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Europe, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Asia, Syria, and Kurdistan
305. Hybrid Warfare and Deniability as Understood by the Military
- Author:
- Håkan Gunneriusson
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Polish Political Science Yearbook
- Institution:
- Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
- Abstract:
- Russia and China are terraforming the maritime environment as part of their warfare. In both cases the actions are illegal and the performance is offensive to its actual nature. In the case of China, the practice is construction of artificial islands in the South Chinese Sea and in the case of Russia it is about the infamous bridge built over the Kerch strait, Ukraine. Neither Russia nor China expects an armed conflict with the West in the near future. That is a reasonable assumption, which is weaponized at the political-strategically level. The attack of this weaponized situation is that the trust in the West. Primarily the EU (European Union) and NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization), is eroded for every day which these countries challenges the international system which the western democracies say that they present and defend. China and Russia offer their authoritarian systems as a replacement and there are a lot of pseudo-democratic or even out-right authoritarian regimes on the sideline watching this challenge unfold. The article highlights the difference for the NATO-countries in logic of practice when it comes to the political social field on one hand and the military political field on the other hand. The article uses material from a previously unpublished survey made on NATO-officers then attending courses at NATO Defense College (NDC).
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, War, Military Strategy, European Union, Conflict, Civil-Military Relations, and Hybrid Warfare
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America
306. February 2018 Issue
- Author:
- Charles Lister, Raffaello Pantucci, Michael Horton, Kendall Bianchi, and Miles Hidalgo
- Publication Date:
- 02-2018
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- CTC Sentinel
- Institution:
- The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
- Abstract:
- The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point is proud to mark its 15th year anniversary this month. In this issue’s feature article, Charles Lister tells the inside story of how al-Qa`ida lost control of its Syrian affiliate, drawing on the public statements of several key protagonists as well as interviews with Islamist sources in Syria. In the summer of 2016, al-Qa`ida’s Syrian affiliate, Jabhat al-Nusra, announced it was uncoupling from al-Qa`ida and rebranding itself. Al-Qa`ida’s deputy leader at the time, Abu al-Khayr al-Masri, released a message endorsing the move, which even included a previously unheard audio clip of Ayman al-Zawahiri stressing that organizational links should be sacrificed if necessary for unity, creating the impression that al-Qa`ida’s paramount leader had also sanctioned the decision. What appeared to be a carefully choreographed set of announcements made many analysts conclude the split was nothing more than a PR exercise, designed to advance the local aims of al-Qa`ida in Syria by improving al-Nusra’s standing among Syrian rebel groups and insulating it from international pressure. But this interpretation was challenged by a bombshell message released by al-Zawahiri on November 28, 2017. Al-Qa`ida’s leader publicly revealed that not only had he not endorsed the split, but he regarded it as a “a violation of the covenant.” “Al-Zawahiri’s interjection was a watershed moment,” Lister writes, “making clear to the wider global jihadi movement that a real split had taken place between al-Qa`ida and its Syrian affiliate.” One function of the split has been the beginnings of a tense modus vivendi between hardcore al-Qa`ida loyalists in Syria and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (the latest rebrand of al-Nusra). The result, Lister argues, is “a complex counterterrorism threat, in which a locally focused jihadi outfit with a sizable 12,000 fighters continues to control territory, govern people, and maintain sources of local finance, while accepting—even grudgingly—a deeply dangerous, small, tight-knit clique of al-Qa`ida terrorists committed to attacking the West. That image looks eerily similar to the Taliban-al-Qa`ida relationship in Afghanistan in 2000-2001, the consequences of which are well known to all.” Our interview this month is with Deputy Assistant Commissioner Neil Basu, the Senior National Coordinator for Counterterrorism Policing in the United Kingdom. Michael Horton examines the challenges faced by the UAE in its counterinsurgency campaign against al-Qa`ida in Yemen. Kendall Bianchi looks at how Hezbollah has used the mothers of fighters killed in Syria to promote martyrdom. Miles Hidalgo, one of the CTC’s Downing Scholars, provides a first-hand account of the cooperation between Europol and U.S. Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) at Europol’s headquarters in The Hague.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Children, Counter-terrorism, Women, Al Qaeda, Conflict, and Hezbollah
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Europe, Middle East, Lebanon, Syria, and United States of America
307. Safe but Not Settled: The Impact of Family Separation on Refugees in the UK
- Author:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Publication Date:
- 01-2018
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- Refugees in the UK often find themselves separated from their families by their brutal experiences of conflict and persecution, just at the time when they need each other the most. This separation can drag on for years or sometimes indefinitely because of the UK’s restrictive rules on refugee family reunion. This joint report by the Refugee Council and Oxfam is one of the first to look at how family reunion and ongoing forced separation from loved ones affect the ability of refugees to successfully integrate into UK society.
- Topic:
- Migration, Refugee Crisis, Displacement, Conflict, Borders, Family, and Humanitarian Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Europe, and Global Focus
308. National Security in the Age of Hybrid War
- Author:
- Ilhami B. Değirmencioğlu
- Publication Date:
- 10-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
- Abstract:
- During the course of the past 10 years, the security environment has become more complex due to the blurring of the lines of warfare. Therefore, the ‘gray zone’ between peace and war expanded and became a battlefield of non-conventional warfare such as counterinsurgency, terrorism, cyber-attacks, etc. (Mansoor, 2012: 1). The failed and fragile states in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia, as well as non-recognized de facto states in the Caucasus played catalytic role in the expansion of the non-conventional warfare. Moreover, Great Powers inclined to use increasingly the non-conventional warfare in the proxy and delegated wars waged by them. In the recent years, the non-state actors used innovative and complicated tactics against legal authorities in many countries. The prevalence of the new complex threats transformed the classic war concept into a concept called ‘new wars.’ Due to the combined use of the conventional and non-conventional warfare, many scholars and politicians started to call the new model of war as ‘hybrid war.’
- Topic:
- National Security, Conflict, Peace, and Hybrid Warfare
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Global Focus, and United States of America
309. Russian Norm Entrepreneurship in Crimea: Serious Contestation or Cheap Talk?
- Author:
- Betcy Jose and Christoph H. Stefes
- Publication Date:
- 02-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Global and Area Studies
- Abstract:
- Western actors have long dominated the political processes and discourses that shape global norms impacting interstate behaviour. Yet, more recently, powerful autocratic regimes such as China and Russia have seemingly challenged democracies, emerging as potential contesters of international norms. What might be the outcome of this contestation? This paper broadly explores this query by investigating Russia’s humanitarian justifications for its Ukrainian incursion. It examines whether Russia’s claim of humanitarian intervention is more than a petty attempt to disguise pure power politics. Is Russia contesting Western understandings of humanitarian interventions in order to reshape our ideas of permissible violations of sovereignty norms to protect vulnerable populations? Using Atlas.ti, we also explore global responses to Russia’s humanitarian claims. Our initial findings indicate that the Ukrainian intervention enabled Russia to contest Responsibility to Protect (R2P) and to champion an alternative version of humanitarian intervention with some limited success.
- Topic:
- Imperialism, Military Strategy, Authoritarianism, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Crimea
310. Bulgaria and Black Sea Security
- Author:
- Siemon T. Wezeman and Alexandra Kuimova
- Publication Date:
- 12-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
- Abstract:
- The Black Sea region is experiencing a changing military balance. The six littoral states (Bulgaria, Georgia, Romania, Russia, Turkey and Ukraine) intensified their efforts to build up their military potential after Russia’s takeover of Crimea and the start of the internationalized civil war in eastern Ukraine in 2014. As a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Bulgaria aims to support NATO’s security objectives of increasing military spending, enhancing defence capacities and developing interoperability. Bulgaria contributes to NATO’s military activities in the Black Sea region and regularly hosts and participates in exercises with NATO partners. However, Bulgaria also tries to remain on good terms with Russia by way of bilateral economic and political cooperation.
- Topic:
- Security, Military Affairs, Nuclear Power, Arms Trade, Disarmament, Conflict, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Eurasia, Bulgaria, and Black Sea