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201. From indices to insight: A proposal to enhance the risk assessment of the Dutch Early Warning/Early Action process

Author:
Bob Deen, Adaja Stoetman, and Kars de Bruijne
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Over the course of the last three decades, countless scholars, diplomats and experts have sought to develop reliable ways to predict and prevent violent conflict and instability. These efforts have yielded a vast array of analytical instruments, ranging from indices that measure various proximate and structural causes of instability to forecasting models that estimate the probability of an outbreak of violent conflict. Predicting and preventing violent conflict and instability Presently, there is a great deal of data available ranging from better measures of political violence and better predictors of violence. Moreover, as data sciences advance, social scientists have been able to develop new models and refine their predictions. However, as such tools proliferate, so do the challenges for policymakers. First, more data does not always mean ‘better’ data. Key indicators such as on political inclusivity, local grievances and competition are often still not readily available. Second, more data and better methodologies have not always meant a better insight into conflict risks. While we have generally become better in predicting the continuation and intensity of ongoing conflict, it remains a major challenge to predict which countries will become unstable and when. Third, perhaps the biggest problem is that even when having a clear insight into conflict risks, converting these insights into actionable policies remains difficult. In these instances, it is often not a lack of information or insufficient early warning signals per se that pose the key obstacles, but rather the ability to convert these data points into policy-relevant analysis and to identify relevant entry points for preventive efforts.
Topic:
Political Violence, Conflict, Risk, and Instability
Political Geography:
Europe and Netherlands

202. Three Scenarios for Europe’s Conflict Landscape in 2030

Author:
Florence Schimmel
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
In September 2020, the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) and the EU Institute for Security Studies (EUISS) conducted an expert workshop on the future of conflict for Europe. Participants from across the continent were invited to develop forward-looking scenarios for crises impacting European security up until 2030.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

203. Book Talk. "There Is Nothing for You Here" by Fiona Hill

Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
The Harriman Institute
Abstract:
lease join the Harriman Institute and the Institute for the Study of Human Rights for a book talk by Fiona Hill, author of There Is Nothing for You Here: Finding Opportunity in the Twenty-First Century (Mariner Books, 2021). The talk will be chaired by David L. Phillips (ISHR) with Alexander Cooley (Harriman Institute) as discussant and interviewer. In There Is Nothing for You Here, a celebrated foreign policy expert and key impeachment witness reveals how declining opportunity has set America on the grim path of modern Russia—and draws on her personal journey out of poverty, as well as her unique perspectives as an historian and policy maker, to show how we can return hope to our forgotten places. Fiona Hill grew up in a world of terminal decay. The last of the local mines had closed, businesses were shuttering, and despair was etched in the faces around her. Her father urged her to get out of their blighted corner of northern England: “There is nothing for you here, pet,” he said. The coal-miner’s daughter managed to go further than he ever could have dreamed. She studied in Moscow and at Harvard, became an American citizen, and served three U.S. Presidents. But in the heartlands of both Russia and the United States, she saw troubling reflections of her hometown and similar populist impulses. By the time she offered her brave testimony in the first impeachment inquiry of President Trump, Hill knew that the desperation of forgotten people was driving American politics over the brink—and that we were running out of time to save ourselves from Russia’s fate. In this powerful, deeply personal account, she shares what she has learned, and shows why expanding opportunity is the only long-term hope for our democracy. Fiona Hill is the Robert Bosch Senior Fellow at the Center on the United States and Europe in the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institution. From 2017 to 2019, she served as deputy assistant to the president and senior director for European and Russian affairs on the National Security Council. From 2006 to 2009, she served as national intelligence officer for Russia and Eurasia at the National Intelligence Council. She has researched and published extensively on issues related to Russia, the Caucasus, Central Asia, regional conflicts, energy, and strategic issues. Coauthor of Mr. Putin: Operative in the Kremlin and The Siberian Curse: How Communist Planners Left Russia Out in the Cold, she holds a master's degree in Soviet studies and a doctorate in history from Harvard University and a master's in Russian and modern history from St. Andrews University in Scotland. She also has pursued studies at Moscow's Maurice Thorez Institute of Foreign Languages. Hill is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and lives in the Washington, DC, area.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Hegemony, Conflict, Violence, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, North America, and United States of America

204. Post-War Situation in the South Caucasus Region

Author:
Farid Shafiyev
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Caucasus Strategic Perspectives
Institution:
Center of Analysis of International Relations (AIR Center)
Abstract:
The current issue of the Caucasus Strategic Perspectives (CSP) journal entitled “Post-War Situation in the South Caucasus Region” is dedicated to the possible cooperation opportunities in the aftermath of latest 44-day war between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the fall of 2020 with focus on different views from various experts driven from different countries.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, History, European Union, Geopolitics, Conflict, Peace, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:
Europe, Iran, Turkey, Azerbaijan, South Caucasus, and United States of America

205. Proportionality and Karlsruhe’s Ultra Vires Verdict: Ways Out of Constitutional Pluralism?

Author:
Martin Höpner
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
Abstract:
In May 2020, for the first time in its history, the Federal Constitutional Court (FCC) of Germany declared Union acts as being ultra vires. According to the FCC, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) had acted beyond their mandates because they did not apply strong proportionality standards to the ECB’s Public Sector Purchase Programme (PSPP). The resulting stalemate within constitutional pluralism has revived the discussion about the possible introduction of an Appeal Court with the “final say” over constitutional conflict. As the analysis of the PSPP conflict shows, such a judicial authority would reach its limits the more we move from the surface to the core of the struggles between European and national constitutional law. The different readings of proportionality are difficult to bridge, and the mutually exclusive claims about the nature of the supremacy of European law are not accessible to compromise at all. We should therefore not expect too much from an Appeal Court, if it were introduced.
Topic:
Law, European Union, Constitution, Conflict, European Monetary Union, Court of Justice of the EU (CJEU), and Proportionality
Political Geography:
Europe

206. July 2020 Issue

Author:
Heni Nsaibia, Caleb Weiss, Seth Loertscher, Nick Kramer, Robin Simcox, Hannah Stuart, Amarnath Amarasingam, and Marc-Andre Argentino
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
Earlier this month, the United Nations monitoring team that tracks the global jihadi threat warned the Security Council that “ISIL franchises in West Africa and the Sahel continued to enjoy operational success in early 2020, as have those of Al-Qaida, heightening international concern about stability in the region.” Concern over the threat has grown despite the fact that a year ago clashes erupted between the Islamic State and al-Qa`ida franchises in the region, turning what had been an often amicable and sometimes cooperative relationship into fighting between them in Mali and Burkina Faso. In our feature article, Héni Nsaibia and Caleb Weiss assess that a number of factors ended the “Sahelian anomaly” of amicable relations between the regional Islamic State and al-Qa`ida groupings, “including the hardening of ideological divisions, pressure from Islamic State Central for its regional satellite to take on a more confrontational approach toward its rival, and tensions created by the growing ambition of the Islamic State affiliate in the Sahel.” They note that “while some argue that fighting between jihadi groups is positive for the counterterrorism landscape, it is also possible that the two groups are in effect engaging in a process called ‘outbidding,’ wherein a group aims to show ‘greater resolve to fight the enemy than rival groups.’” Our interview is with Chris Costa, who during the first year of the Trump administration served as the Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Counterterrorism. Building on a study of terrorist recidivism in Belgium by Thomas Renard published in the April issue of CTC Sentinel, Robin Simcox and Hannah Stuart examine the problem set created by jihadi prisoners in Europe from two different angles. Firstly, they examine the nature of the threat by analyzing a dozen alleged jihadi terror plots and attacks that occurred inside and outside prisons in Western Europe since 2014 in which at least one of the attackers/plotters had been convicted in Europe of a previous terrorism offense. Secondly, they look at the scale of the threat by calculating the rates of various forms of recidivism from a comprehensive database relating to U.K. jihadi terror activity. Amarnath Amarasingam and Marc-André Argentino assess the emerging security threat posed by the QAnon conspiracy. They write: “A survey of cases of individuals who have allegedly or apparently been radicalized to criminal acts with a nexus to violence by QAnon, including one case that saw a guilty plea on a terrorism charge, makes clear that QAnon represents a public security threat with the potential in the future to become a more impactful domestic terror threat. This is true especially given that conspiracy theories have a track record of propelling terrorist violence elsewhere in the West as well as QAnon’s more recent influence on mainstream political discourse.”
Topic:
Terrorism, Prisons/Penal Systems, Counter-terrorism, Al Qaeda, Islamic State, Conflict, and QAnon
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Sahel, and United States of America

207. Exploring India's Strategic Futures

Author:
Arzan Tarapore
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
he method of major/minor trends developed in this report suggests that the roots of apparently surprising future behavior can be found in a close reading of a target state’s history. Using this method, the report outlines three unlikely but plausible alternative futures of India as a strategic actor. The first scenario envisions India as a Hindu-nationalist revisionist power hostile to Pakistan but accommodating of China; in the second, it is a militarily risk-acceptant state that provokes dangerous crises with China; and in the third scenario, India is a staunch competitor to China that achieves some success through partnerships with other U.S. rivals like Russia and Iran. These scenarios are designed not to predict the future but to sensitize U.S. policymakers to possible strategic disruptions. They also serve to highlight risks and tensions in current policy.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Conflict, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, Europe, India, Asia, and North America

208. The Human Security Deficit as a Cause for Migratory and Refugee Flows: The design of an Accurate Response / El déficit de seguridad humana como causa de los flujos migratorios: el diseño de una respuesta precisa

Author:
Gracia Abad Quintanal
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:
International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:
The end of the Cold War has given way to an impressive tranformation of the security concept, which has experienced an incredible expansion over the last few decades. This expansion has also gone hand by hand with the emergence of new concepts which might allow better analysis in this realm. The human security concept stands out among such new concepts as a result of its analytical value, in spite of all the criticism it has received. One of the questions which has become securitized in the context of the mentioned expansion of the security concept is migration. However, even if migrations have been approached too frequently from a traditional security concept based on the state and its sovereignty, the human seecurity concepts seems a much better tool for the analysis of this reality and its causes. In this sense, we cannot forget that people become migrants or refugees because they see questioned their personal security. Likewise, we have to pay attention to the extent to which, the host states and, particularly, their societies, may see their political, economic and societal security in danger. Therefore, the analysis should pay attention to the security challenges of both, host societies and migrants and refugees. Besides, only an analysis on the basis of the human security concept will allow us to come up with an accurate response to the question of migratory and refugee flows, this is a response which pays attention to some key aspects such as conflict prevention and management an growth and development promotion in the countries of origin of migrants and refugees, always in cooperation with those countries themselves. Such un analysis will show the indivisible nature of security and the fact that the security of host societies and that of migrants and refugees, far from being incompatible, go hand by hand.
Topic:
Development, Migration, Refugees, Conflict, and Human Security
Political Geography:
Europe and Global Focus

209. Society max: How Europe can help Syrians survive Assad and coronavirus

Author:
Julien Barnes-Dacey
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
After nine years of conflict, the US is mounting a ‘maximum pressure’ campaign against Syria, seeking the regime’s demise. But, with Assad having effectively won the war, he is unlikely to succumb to US economic pressure. Assad bears responsibility for the country’s freefall but this strategy will further accelerate societal collapse, especially as coronavirus looms, and will not deliver a transition. European governments should pivot to a longer-term strategy focused on protecting those societal forces that are still standing and that can help salvage a better future aligned with European interests. This should include increased – and cautious – support to them within government-controlled Syria. The unpredictability of the Trump administration means persuading the US down this track is not impossible – Europeans should seek to influence Washington to widen space for societal support.
Topic:
Sanctions, Conflict, Syrian War, Coronavirus, COVID-19, and Bashar al-Assad
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, and Syria

210. EU MONITOR: French lessons in Africa: An assessment of three key military capabilities for European defence

Author:
Adrian Blazquez
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
In his latest EU monitor, Adrian Blazquez examines the the European cooperation in the Sahel strip. The Sahel region is often known as the European southern border. This area is a hotbed of violence and instability where weak states are overwhelmed by a myriad of ethnic conflicts and the proliferation of extremist groups. Local governments are largely unable to control their borders.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Military Affairs, European Union, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Europe, North Africa, and Sahel