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Begin New Search Topic COVID-19 Political Geography Europe

1. The Coronavirus Crisis: Origins and the Way Forward

Author:
Hanan Shai
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
Abstract:
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Amid the debate on the coronavirus crisis, there is broad agreement on three issues: The nation-state has failed to check the spread of the virus, quickly and with few people being infected, by using its autonomous capabilities, which turned out to be meager. Trans-state bodies that derived their economic capabilities from the state have failed in their role of assisting it. The idea of globalism is fundamentally true, and the problems that have emerged in the crisis must be remedied by strengthening the states and, at the same time, as concluded by French President Emmanuel Macron, the trans-state bodies. This study contends that globalism in its current form has failed and collapsed, just as communism and other social frameworks failed and collapsed before it. The reason for their collapse was that all of them were based on delusory utopian ideas. These utopian ideas are grounded in a dominant European liberal discipline whose founders abandoned the scientific revolution at the beginning of its path, abjured rational thought, and continued, like the church, to adhere to faith-based thought, feelings of the heart, and delusions of the imagination. Another liberal discipline, less well-known, is the rational one. Committed to truth and to the absolute laws of nature, it was adopted by the Anglo-Saxon democracies, which, thanks to its values, experienced long periods of growth and prosperity. On three occasions this discipline could be mobilized to help rescue Europe from calamities that its utopian conceptions had caused.
Topic:
Health, Global Focus, State, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe and Global Focus

2. Covid-19: Recovering Estimates of the Infected Fatality Rate During an Ongoing Pandemic Through Partial Data

Author:
Matteo Villa, James F. Myers, and Federico Turkheimer
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
In an ongoing epidemic, the case fatality rate is not a reliable estimate of a disease’s severity. This is particularly so when a large share of asymptomatic or pauci-symptomatic patients escape testing, or when overwhelmed healthcare systems are forced to limit testing further to severe cases only. By leveraging data on COVID-19, we propose a novel way to estimate a disease’s infected fatality rate, the true lethality of the disease, in the presence of sparse and partial information. We show that this is feasible when the disease has turned into a pandemic and data comes from a large number of countries, or regions within countries, as long as testing strategies vary sufficiently. For Italy, our method estimates an IFR of 1.1% (95% CI: 0.2% – 2.1%), which is strongly in line with other methods. At the global level, our method estimates an IFR of 1.6% (95% CI: 1.1% – 2.1%). This method also allows us to show that the IFR varies according to each country’s age structure and healthcare capacity.
Topic:
Health, Pandemic, Data, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe, Italy, and Global Focus

3. Covid-19 and Italy’s Case Fatality Rate: What’s the Catch?

Author:
Matteo Villa
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
COVID-19’s lethality in Italy is a highly discussed figure. When compared with other major countries, Italy’s 9.9% case fatality rate (CFR) as of 24 March 2020 is the highest by far. But relying on this figure is misleading. By itself, the CFR tells us almost nothing about COVID-19’s plausible lethality (infected fatality rate, or IFR). On the opposite, recent studies place China’s IFR at 0.7%. By relying on this figure, ISPI’s best estimate for COVID-19’s plausible lethality in Italy is 1.1%. The gap between the IFR and the CFR figures can be largely attributed to the number of infected persons that have not been tested and, therefore, escape counting. ISPI estimates that the number of active cases in Italy is at around 530,000 as of 24 March 2020, or almost ten times larger than the official count of 55,000 active cases. This paper shows that the CFR is an unreliable indicator of COVID-19’s plausible lethality, and there is not enough evidence to suggest that Italy’s IFR is much higher than expected. On the opposite, a direct comparison between the CFR and the IFR is much better placed to paint a more realistic picture of the evolution of the ongoing epidemic.
Topic:
Health, Pandemic, Data, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe and Italy

4. Is the COVID-19 crisis an opportunity to boost the euro as a global currency?

Author:
Gregory Claeys and Guntram B. Wolff
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
The euro never challenged the US dollar, and its international status declined with the euro crisis. Faced with a US administration willing to use its hegemonic currency to extend its domestic policies beyond its borders, Europe is reflecting on how to promote it currency on the global stage to ensure its autonomy. But promoting a more prominent role for the euro is difficult and involves far-reaching changes to the fabric of the monetary union.
Topic:
Health, European Union, Currency, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe and Global Focus

5. The financial fragility of European households in the time of COVID-19

Author:
Maria Demertzis, Marta Dominguez-Jimenez, and Annamaria Lusardi
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
The concept of household financial fragility emerged in the United States after the 2007-2008 financial crisis. It grew out of the need to understand whether households’ lack of capacity to face shocks could itself become a source of financial instability.
Topic:
Governance, European Union, Finance, Macroeconomics, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe

6. Greening the recovery by greening the fiscal consolidation

Author:
Ben McWilliams, Simone Tagliapietra, and Georg Zachmann
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
In the wake of COVID-19, some economic recovery policies will help green the economy – for example, energy renovation of buildings. But there are limits to the share of stimulus that can be explicitly green. The European Union should therefore also green the fiscal consolidation by setting out the path to much higher carbon prices than today. This would guide investment and provide revenues to help the fiscal consolidation.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, European Union, Economy, Renewable Energy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe

7. An effective economic response to the Coronavirus in Europe

Author:
Maria Demertzis, André Sapir, Simone Tagliapietra, and Guntram B. Wolff
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
'Whatever it takes' needs to be the motto to preserve lives and reduce the impact on the economy of the epidemic.
Topic:
Governance, Economy, Central Bank, Macroeconomics, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe

8. Racing against COVID-19: a vaccines strategy for Europe

Author:
Reinhilde Veugelers and Georg Zachmann
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
This Policy Contribution proposes a staged support scheme to tackle the COVID-19 vaccine challenge and a moon shot programme to meet the challenge of future pandemics.
Topic:
Health, Science and Technology, Innovation, Vaccine, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe

9. Rebooting Europe: a framework for a post COVID-19 economic recovery

Author:
Julia Anderson, Simone Tagliapietra, and Guntram B. Wolff
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
COVID-19 has triggered a severe recession and policymakers in European Union countries are providing generous, largely indiscriminate, support to companies. As the recession gets deeper, a more comprehensive strategy is needed. This should be based on four principles: viability of supported entities, fairness, achieving societal goals, and giving society a share in future profits. The effort should be structured around equity and recovery funds with borrowing at EU level.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Global Recession, European Union, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe

10. The European Central Bank in the COVID-19 crisis: whatever it takes, within its mandate

Author:
Gregory Claeys
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
To keep the euro-area economy afloat, the European Central Bank has put in place a large number of measures since the beginning of the COVID-19 crisis. This response has triggered fears of a future increase in inflation. However, the ECB's new measures and the resulting increase in the size of its balance sheet, even if it were to be permanent, should not restrict its ability to achieve its price-stability mandate, within its legal obligations.
Topic:
Governance, Central Bank, Macroeconomics, Judiciary, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe