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21. An EU-Korea Free Trade Area: Playing Catch-Up or Taking the Lead?

Author:
Jim Rollo
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Both Korea and the EU are pursuing free trade areas (FTAs) aggressively as part of their trade policy strategies. Korea is much further down the road. There are strong incentives on both sides to conclude an agreement. However, specific issues and EU's desire to do at least as well as, and preferably better than, the Korea–US FTA may delay or even preclude success. Korea and the EU are not principal suppliers to each other, so while an agreement is predicted to be economically favourable to both sides, the effects are not expected to be very large. Korea has the higher barriers and is expected to make the bigger economic gains. There are sensitive sectors on both sides, notably automobiles for the EU and services and processed foods for Korea. Both sides have important agricultural constituencies to protect. Korea's key role in the East Asian production system suggests that rules of origin could be an area of particular difficulty in the negotiation.
Topic:
Agriculture and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, East Asia, Asia, and South Korea

22. Why Did the Communist Party Reform in China, But Not in the Soviet Union? The Political Economy of Agricultural Transition

Author:
Johan Swinnen and Scott Rozelle
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
The dramatic transition from Communism to market economies across Asia and Europe started in the Chinese countryside in the 1970s. Since then more than a billion of people, many of them very poor, have been affected by radical reforms in agriculture. However, there are enormous differences in the reform strategies that countries have chosen. This paper presents a set of arguments to explain why countries have chosen different reform policies.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Asia, and Soviet Union

23. The Effects of Alternative Policy Scenarios on Multifunctionality: A Case Study of Spain

Author:
Irene Blanco, Arancha Simó, and Consuelo Varela-Ortega
Publication Date:
06-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
This paper focuses on the comparative analysis and evaluation of the impact of multifunctionality on the agricultural sector for different scenarios that take into account the protection of the environment and natural resources as well as the international trade agreements in the context of the EU agricultural sector. The research focuses on two different regions in Spain that represent the continental agriculture of the region of Castilla-Leon in the northern central plateau and the Mediterranean fertile agriculture of Andalusia in the south. The analysis has been carried out based on mathematical programming models that simulate farmers' behaviour and their response to the different policy scenarios that correspond to the EU agricultural policies (CAP programmes) and water policies (Water Framework Directive) currently in place. Specifically, these scenarios are: full and partial decoupling, subsidy modulation, crop prices reduction, cross-compliance measures and water pricing policies. Results indicate that the new decoupled CAP will not lead to drastic changes in land use in the two regions studied but will have negative repercussions on farmers' income. Moreover, the introduction of additional measures, such as cross-compliance, will contribute substantially to improving and protecting the environment even though they amount to an additional cost for farmers. Reduction in crop prices will have significant effects on international trade and is likely to produce a reduction in farm intensification and hence a beneficial effect on the environment but will involve negative socio-economic impacts in marginal rain-fed farms. As regards the integration of agricultural and water conservation policies, the application of the EU Water Framework Directive in conjunction with the new CAP reform would produce different regionspecific effects and might question the viability of a number of irrigated farms in Spain.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe and Spain

24. Europe's Financial Perspectives in Perspective

Author:
Paul Veenendaal, Herman Stolwijk, and George Gelauff
Publication Date:
04-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
The budget of the European Union nearly always raises much commotion. Many member states anxiously guard their net payment positions: don't they pay too much for the EU compared to what they receive from the EU? Yet, from an economic perspective the subsidiarity principle is much more important: Should the funds be allocated by the Union or by the individual member states? From that angle, a number of fundamental reforms of European agricultural policy and structural actions (support to lagging regions) suggest themselves. These reform options may more than halve the EU budget. In addition they happen to bring the net payment positions of member states closer together.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe

25. Modelling the Multifunctionality of Czech Agriculture

Author:
Ivan Foltýn and Tomáš Doucha
Publication Date:
05-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
The transformation of Czech agriculture since 1990 under the different stages of agricultural policy has resulted in the emergence of a strong, dual farm structure with a high share of leased land and profit-maximising (vs. family) farms. This working paper assesses the current situation concerning the multifunctional aspects of Czech farms. Applying a non-linear optimising model (FARMA 4), this study simulates the effects of different policy scenarios up to 2010 on the selected set of indicators of multifunctionality for eight farm categories (differentiated into three regions and by profit/income orientation). Under all the scenarios, there is a tendency towards a more extensive level of production with lower labour input, particularly by the profit-oriented farms that prevail in Czech agriculture.
Topic:
Agriculture, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe and Czech Republic

26. Modelling the Effects of Trade Policy Scenarios on Multifunctionality in Greek Agriculture: A Social Accounting Matrix Approach

Author:
Dimitris Psaltopoulos and Eudokia Balamou
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
This paper presents a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) model for conducting an assessment on the potential impacts of trade agreements on several multifunctionality indicators in Greek agriculture. More specifically, two SAM models were constructed, one for Greece and one for local economy of Archanes (Crete), an agriculturally dependent NUTS IV area, which has demonstrated a noticeable record in terms of the implementation of Pillar 2 policies. Along these lines, five alternative scenarios were specified with regards to anticipated EU policy reactions under different future outcomes of the Doha round negotiations. In broad terms these scenarios range from a status quo (2003 CAP reform) hypothesis to full decoupling, taking also into account the possibility of further reductions in domestic (EU) support as well as developments on Pillar 2 funding. Results suggest that under the scenarios examined, the effects of policy reform upon multifunctionality indicators are rather mixed and surely not extremely worrying. Effects of the status quo scenarios seem to be optimistic in terms of projected economy-wide output and employment at both national and regional level. On the other hand, Scenario 1(bis) generates negative results in terms of farm output and employment (for Archanes), land-use abandonment projections are marginal at the national and rather moderate at the regional level, while environmental repercussions are negative at the national level. The regional analysis has also shown that the impacts of Scenarios 2, 2b and 3 are rather worrying in terms of all categories of projections, with the exception of “Total Output”. Taking account of the specification of Scenario 3, this finding generates rather justified reservations on the “ability” of Pillar 2 policies to ameliorate for economic activity contraction caused by a decrease in Pillar 1 support in Archanes economy.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe

27. Evaluating the Impact of Alternative Policy Scenarios on Multifunctionality: A Case Study of Finland

Author:
Heikki Lehtonen, Jussi Lankoski, and Jyrki Niemi
Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
This paper provides first results of the sector-model approach to analysing the effects of alternative policy scenarios on the multifunctional role of Finnish agriculture. In terms of environmental non-commodity outputs, this study focuses on nutrient runoffs, landscape diversity and biodiversity. As regards other non-commodity outputs, the paper considers rural socio-economic viability. The results suggest that, on the whole, reform of the common agricultural policy is not likely to result in any drastic decline of agricultural production in Finland. The amount of green fallow will increase considerably when agricultural support payments are decoupled from production, and as a result the remaining cultivated agricultural land will become biologically richer. The agricultural labour force is likely to decrease substantially irrespective of agricultural policy. The study concludes that the credibility of the production economics and biological relationships of the economic model determine the validity of the results of the many indicators examined. Further, the economic logic of microeconomic simulation models provides a consistent assessment of the many aspects of multifunctionality.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, and Environment
Political Geography:
Europe and Finland

28. Scenarios for Modelling Trade Policy Effects on the Multifunctionality of European Agriculture

Author:
Jerzy Wilkin, Janet Dwyer, David Baldock, Hervé Guyomard, and Dorota Klepacka
Publication Date:
01-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
The ENARPRI partners agreed in February 2004 to prepare a precise specification for the scenarios that partners would attempt to model in their own national contexts, to examine the impacts of trade-related changes upon the multifunctionality of EU agriculture. This paper outlines a suite of five scenarios covering anticipated domestic (EU) policy under different possible outcomes from the Doha round, broadly based upon the status quo (with mid-term review), full decoupling of domestic support and full decoupling plus reductions in (decoupled) domestic support, with variants in relation to export subsidies and the scale of pillar 2 measures. In all cases it is recognised that national or sub-national models will require an additional level of national or regional specification before they can be run, and that each national team will be required to do this drawing upon their own domestic knowledge and discussion with relevant experts. Each of the models that will be used to undertake these analyses is then briefly reviewed to identify its general approach and the multifunctionality indicators that can be covered. These indicators are then set in the broader context that considers other potential indicators of multifunctionality and their rationales. The paper concludes with some additional commentary about the significant differences, and thus the difficulties, of attempting to undertake this exercise for any of the new member states.
Topic:
International Relations and Agriculture
Political Geography:
Europe

29. The Norwegian Import Regime for Agriculture

Author:
Arne Melchior
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Norway maintains one of the highest levels of protection for agriculture in the OECD, but the tariff structure is not so transparent due to the extensive use of specific tariffs, i.e. tariffs expressed in NOK/kg or the like. In this paper, we use world market prices and Norwegian import prices to calculate ad valorem equivalents of specific tariffs. This shows that 28% of the tariff lines in agriculture are above 100%, and 10% are above 300%. The average of MFN applied tariffs is in the range 73-103%, depending on the calculation method. Protection is somewhat lower (54-74%) for goods exported by developing countries. While the Least Developed Countries have zero tariffs, other developing countries obtain 10-15% tariff reductions under the GSP system of tariff preferences. Tariff rate quotas provide some increase in market access. Protection of grains and feedstuff raises the forage costs in agriculture, and especially feedstuffs are important in the exports of developing countries.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe and Norway

30. Economic Survey of the Netherlands, 2004

Publication Date:
05-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
The economic downturn in the Netherlands, like the boom that preceded it, has been more marked than in most other European countries. This is partly attributable to greater exposure to international trade, especially with the US, and to greater sensitivity to international stock price movements. But there are also some structural policies – pension fund regulation, housing and wage setting institutions – that have undermined economic efficiency and contributed to the amplitude of the cycle. Furthermore there has been a marked deterioration in public finances, part of which is structural. Longer term growth trends too are unfavourable. In view of these developments, the main challenges are to reform those policies that have reduced efficiency and increased volatility, put public finances on a sustainable path, and, most importantly, increase trend growth by increasing both employment and productivity.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, Environment, Human Rights, International Organization, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe and Netherlands