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531. Europe’s De-risking from China: Dead on Arrival?

Author:
Nicola Casarini
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
De-risking ties from China has become a buzzword in European policy circles, amid growing tensions between the West and the Asian giant. While US policymakers and experts continue to focus on the need to decouple ties from Beijing, the concept of de-risking has been largely fashioned in Brussels to avoid the decoupling debate and find a common transatlantic ground. While EU member states have reduced critical dependencies on China to varying degrees, their efforts are resisted by some large companies, local authorities and civil society actors eager to boost ties with Beijing. Recently, several EU governments have been promoting industrial cooperation with China, opening doors to Chinese investments in their territories to boost production of electric vehicles and green technologies. While this form of cooperation brings benefits to Europe’s industrial capacity and competitiveness, it however risks increasing the level of dependency on Beijing, undermining the de-risking strategy being put in place by the European Commission, as well as deepening the rift with the US on how to deal with the Asian giant. Going forward, there is a need for a thorough and frank debate about the EU’s de-risking strategy and its future prospect, also considering a possible return of Trump to the White House.
Topic:
Foreign Direct Investment, European Union, Trade, Transatlantic Relations, Industry, and De-Risking
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Asia

532. Italy’s Migration Policies Amidst Climate Change: An Assessment

Author:
Chiara Scissa
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Since the 1990s, Italy has progressively become a country of destination for migration movements especially from Africa and South Asia. In 2022, Italy received a total of 84,289 claims for international protection. The main nationalities of origin were Bangladesh, Pakistan, Egypt, Tunisia and Nigeria.[1] The causes of migration are multiple and complex, and could refer to political, economic, social and/or cultural grounds. Yet, and not without hurdles, another relevant factor that contributes to driving people to move to a different country has started to emerge: climate change (and its related impacts on disasters, environmental degradation and other environmental factors). Although the nexus between climate change and migration is complex to define and to identify, it is relevant to note that many protection-seekers in Italy come from countries most exposed to climate change that, in certain cases, may have played a role either in directly shaping migration movements or in exacerbating more proximate causes of migration, such as worsening conflicts over scarce resources, violence, poverty or discrimination dynamics in the aftermath of a disaster.[2] Against this backdrop, in the following, I will first examine how the climate change-migration nexus has been approached by the Italian legal system, to then move to the Meloni government’s political strategy in the field of migration governance, followed by an assessment of their respective efficacy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Climate Change, and Migration
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Italy

533. Perspectives for Italy-Germany Energy Cooperation amid Energy Security and Transition

Author:
Alessio Sangiorgio and Pier Paolo Raimondi
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Italy and Germany share important similarities in their energy sectors, facing multiple challenges, first and foremost the impact of the energy crisis and its effect on transition efforts. Similarly, changing political contexts at the national and European levels creates new obstacles for climate ambitions, raising the need for bilateral dialogue and common solutions. The two countries’ economies are also closely interconnected, increasing the need for joint action on industrial decarbonisation and cross-border interconnections. A coordinated response in tackling the challenges of energy security, competitiveness and sustainability is needed and may yield positive results for both countries and the European Union.
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Energy
Political Geography:
Europe, Germany, and Italy

534. US-Germany Missile Agreement: Deterrence or Escalation?

Author:
Polina Sinovets
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
This October was marked by a statement by the Head of the German Foreign Service Intelligence, Bruno Kahl, who claimed that by the end of this decade at the latest, Russian troops could “carry out an attack” against NATO.[1] The defence chief could hardly be accused of hyperbole. His comments took place at the time of Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine, the Kremlin’s growing nuclear blackmail of the West and regular threats to use some measures[2] against any NATO country whose military deployments might potentially affect Russian missiles’ striking capabilities. Against this backdrop and with the new US administration coming to power in 2025 under the slogan of turning all its attention to China, Europe will have to care much more about its defence and security than before 2022. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine revealed the weak spots of the European NATO pillar in terms of arms production, military budgeting and general preparedness for a large-scale war in European territory, which turns out to be critical for the security of the continent.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, Deterrence, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Germany, and United States of America

535. EU Defence Industrial Initiatives: A Quantum Leap Is Needed

Author:
Gaia Ravazzolo and Alessandro Marrone
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
During Ursula von der Leyen’s first mandate as European Commission President, a number of EU defence industrial initiatives were launched, while the European Defence Fund (EDF) was implemented. The fragmentation of the EU’s defence industrial policy is evident in the proliferation of tools, with EDF itself, the Act in Support of Ammunition Production (ASAP), the European Defence Industry Reinforcement through Common Procurement Act (EDIS), and the European Defence Industrial Plan (EDIP) as prime examples. Yet the current landscape of fragmented tools and modest budgets is insufficient to meet the long-term challenges arising from an increasingly complex international and geopolitical context. The second von der Leyen’s Commission will have to face critical decisions to properly fund and support the European defence industry to contribute to the continent’s collective deterrence and defence amidst a limited and uncertain US commitment to the region.
Topic:
European Union and Defense Industry
Political Geography:
Europe

536. Nuclear power plants in war zones: Lessons learned from the war in Ukraine

Author:
Joanna Przybylak
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
The aim of this paper is to examine the lessons learned till mid-2023 from the war in Ukraine to find out how attacking or seizing nuclear power plants (NPPs) can be utilised to advance military and political objectives during an armed conflict. The qualitative research approach has been applied to the study, focusing on an analysis of academic research and relevant acts of international law. In order to examine Russia’s approach to the attacks against the Chernobyl and Zaporizhzhia NPPs, numerous reports, official statements by the authorities, press releases, and Internet sources have been analysed. For evaluation of nuclear security and safety standards in Ukraine, the “seven pillars” model proposed by the International Atomic Energy Agency has been adopted. The study indicates that strategically located NPPs can be used as “nuclear shields” for the occupying forces deployed at the plant or nearby. They may also become useful tools of “lawfare” waged with the use of flawed interpretations of international humanitarian law. Finally, nuclear security-related narrations analysed in the paper clearly prove that seized NPPs can be effectively used in information warfare. The research leads to the conclusion that civil NPPs in war zones can be weaponised and exploited by the hostile forces not only for impeding energy supplies (and thus shattering the public morale of the adversary) but also for blackmailing and coercing the decisionmakers of the attacked state and their international allies with a vision of man-made nuclear disaster.
Topic:
Nuclear Power, International Humanitarian Law (IHL), Russia-Ukraine War, and Nuclear Security
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

537. The Three Seas Initiative, its fund, and its support for Ukraine in terms of the theory of liberalism

Author:
Marta Gębska
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
This article aims to analyse how the theory of economic and institutional liberalism applies to the Three Seas Initiative (3SI) and its Investment Fund (3SIIF), particularly in the context of Ukraine, which was attacked by Russia in February 2022. The study integrates theoretical perspectives from security studies, political science, and international relations with the practical implementation of the 3SI and 3SIIF. It uses scholarly literature on liberalism along with official 3SI and 3SIIF documentation. By comparing the theoretical principles of liberalism with the operational practices of the 3SI, the article draws conclusions about the alignment of these practices with liberal theory. The findings indicate that the theory of liberalism can be used to explain and describe forms of regional cooperation such as the 3SI, which reflects its relevance across various operational and conceptual dimensions. The acceptance of Ukraine as a participating 3SI partner was one of the signals to Russia that Ukraine is a part of the Western world, where goals are achieved through voluntary integration, trade and investment cooperation, free market, and democratic principles, and not through dependency, violence, and military action. Finally, the paper illustrates the application of liberalism theory to the geopolitical realities of the 3SI and draws attention to its effectiveness in achieving economic and regional security goals. The research may influence future regional policies and strategies, especially in the context of Ukraine’s integration into Western structures.
Topic:
Security, International Security, Liberalism, Russia-Ukraine War, and Three Seas Initiative
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

538. Estimating the vulnerability of industrial network infrastructure in Central and Eastern Europe

Author:
Mateusz Gzegorz Twardawa, Marek Smolik, Franciszek Rakowski, Jakub Kwiatkowski, and Norbert Meyer
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
Industrial infrastructure has suffered an unprecedented number of attacks in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). This situation can be attributed to many geopolitical factors, including hybrid military conflicts and criminal activity. Industrial networks belonging to the countries that were once under Soviet influence suffer from an elevated risk of cyberattacks. The goal of this work is to propose an easy way to estimate the vulnerabilities of industrial networks to cyber threats on a national level. Since analysis of the industrial vulnerability landscape is difficult, this study proposes an assessment based on the popularity of vulnerable technologies—VPc. This metric is composed of search volume data on keywords related to industrial network technologies and reported security vulnerabilities associated with these words. Data on 116 keywords was analysed and a country-specific VPc index was calculated for twenty states in CEE. The analysis of the popularity of industrial technologies and vendors in CEE reveals interesting information about the industrial security and vulnerability landscape. The results show that some countries (e.g. Estonia) have more resilient industrial infrastructure than others (e.g. Belarus). The results presented in this study are not in conflict with other data and estimation attempts, including the National Cyber Security Index (NCSI). As new vulnerabilities are noted every day, the industrial security landscape changes rapidly. Therefore, a new easy-to-use metric (VPc) can be successfully used for general estimations. This work shows that the VPc score agrees with other estimates and analyses, but as with any other general estimation tool, it must be used with caution.
Topic:
International Security, Infrastructure, Cybersecurity, Industry, Vulnerability, and Network Security
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Europe

539. Anti-terrorist cooperation as part of Poland’s geopolitical shift. “Operation Bridge” and the rise of a strategic partnership with the United States

Author:
Tomasz Piotr Kozłowski
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
This paper discusses Poland’s involvement in “Operation Bridge,” which aimed to transport Jewish citizens from the Soviet Union to Israel between 1989 and 1992. The study is based on recently declassified documents from the former intelligence and counterintelligence services, the Foreign Ministry, and the Prime Minister’s Office, supplemented by accounts of policymakers, secret service officers, and militia involved in protecting Soviet Jews during transit operations. The author argues that this operation was not just a humanitarian effort but also had significant geopolitical implications. The newly elected non-communist government under Tadeusz Mazowiecki saw this as a critical move to establish stronger ties with the United States and Israel. The author also highlights how the cooperation between Poland and the United States in intelligence sharing, counterterrorism, and security operations paved the way for Poland’s strategic partnership with the United States and its eventual entry into NATO. The paper contributes significantly to our understanding of the role played by Poland in the post-Cold War era and sheds new light on the development of US–Polish relations.
Topic:
Security, Cold War, Terrorism, Geopolitics, and Counterintelligence
Political Geography:
Europe, Israel, Poland, and United States of America

540. Role of the private sector within Latvia’s strategic defence documents: Dimensions of psychological resilience and strategic communication

Author:
Lita Juberte Krūmiņa
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
The comprehensive defence framework introduced in 2019 in Latvia has the potential to accelerate the implementation of national defence priorities, thus strengthening Latvia as one of NATO’s external border states. In a time of geopolitical turbulence and increasing hybrid threats, a whole-of-society approach is required and work in ever-new directions. As dimensions of psychological resilience and strategic communication are becoming an important part of the defence studies debate, the study focuses on the role of the private sector within Latvia’s strategic defence documents and aims to investigate where these dimensions are situated and how they have evolved in the strategic landscape. To study the role and evolution of the private sector within Latvia’s strategic defence documents, quantitative content analysis and qualitative text analysis were used for in-depth analysis of the documents. The study finds that the role of the private sector in the strategic defence documents has generally increased over the years and there has not been a significant change regarding private sector involvement in dimensions of psychological resilience and strategic communication. The long-term pattern indicates that dimensions of psychological resilience and strategic communication appear rare in strategic documents, suggesting that the private sector is not seen as a significant actor in achieving defence goals. Meanwhile, in more practical dimensions,an upward trend towards strengthening ties and sharing responsibilities is identified. The study therefore opens up a discussion regarding the need for a more institutionalised framework for psychological and strategic communication dimensions in order to achieve the strategic goals of comprehensive defence.
Topic:
Defense Policy, National Security, Private Sector, Resilience, and Strategic Communication
Political Geography:
Europe and Latvia