2421. ‘Now or Never’: The Immediate Origins of Putin’s Preventative War on Ukraine
- Author:
- Geoffrey Roberts
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
- Institution:
- Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- President’s Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 was a classic case of preventative war decision-making. The public record shows that Putin went to war to prevent Ukraine becoming such a powerful NATO bridgehead on Russia’s borders that Kyiv would seek to forcibly regain control of Crimea and the Donbass. Putin foresaw a future war not just with Ukraine but with NATO and the assessed the risks to Russia of an immediate conflict were lower than the medium and long-term threat. The danger of Ukraine becoming a nuclear-armed state also had an important bearing on his final decision for war, as did his perception of the ultra-nationalist Kyiv government as an implacably ‘anti-Russia’ regime.
- Topic:
- NATO, Vladimir Putin, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine