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2261. The War in Ukraine: The Challenge of Shaping an Endgame

Author:
Udi Dekel
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
Although nearly three weeks have passed since Putin invaded Ukraine, there is no framework for an endgame on the horizon. While the United States and the West would like to bring Putin to his knees as he sinks deeper in the Ukrainian mud, Washington must recognize that the longer the war continues, the chances increase for escalation to new levels that neither side wants. Therefore, before the situation is completely out of control, there must be a dialogue with Russia that can lead to an end to the war.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Conflict, Peace, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

2262. Is Ukraine Poised to Join NATO and the European Union?

Author:
Oden Eran and Shimon Stein
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, there are more and more voices in the West calling for Kiev’s acceptance into NATO and the European Union. However, this is not the time for rapid measures. Now that Putin has backed himself int a corner, the United States and Europe, in parallel with the harsh sanctions imposed on Russia and the assistance to Ukraine, must leave Moscow a way out
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and North America

2263. Putin’s Dilemma

Author:
Ofer Shelah
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
After more than two weeks of war in Ukraine, initial conclusions can already be drawn. Chief among these is the realization that force application in complicated conditions can confront a decision maker with a serious dilemma, in which precisely a military achievement may destroy any possibility of scoring a political achievement
Topic:
Military Strategy, Leadership, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

2264. Germany and the Ukraine Crisis: End of the Age of Illusions

Author:
Shimon Stein
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has sent shockwaves through Germany’s political-security approach of the last decades, and recent speeches in the Bundestag reflect the government’s intention to make system-wide changes in security orientation. Germany must also understand how it missed warning signs from Russia over the years, and formulate a clear policy that addresses the emerging worrisome trends
Topic:
Security, Conflict, Strategic Interests, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and Germany

2265. The Russian Invasion of Ukraine: Legal Aspects

Author:
Pnina Sharvit Baruch and Ori Beeri
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
Since Russia invaded Ukraine, it has been the object of significant legal pressure. While the various legal measures have no power to stop the bloody war, they deliver a powerful, unequivocal message: any state that flagrantly violates international world and undermines the world order will suffer isolation, condemnation, sanction, and criminal investigations. Israel, which has seemed to lean to sitting on the fence, must join the international efforts against Russia, Otherwise it is liable to find itself on the wrong side of history
Topic:
Military Strategy, Law, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

2266. The Ukraine Crisis: An Interim Analysis

Author:
Eldad Shavit, Zvi Magen, and Shimon Stein
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
Although Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began only days ago, it is already clear that with this belligerence Putin has upset the world order that has existed since the Second World War. The Western bloc has already begun to realign and is presenting a unified and forceful stance vis-à-vis Moscow. Israel can no longer avoid taking a clear stand and siding fully with the countries opposing Russia
Topic:
Military Strategy, Conflict, Strategic Interests, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

2267. Functional Specialisation in EU Value Chains: Methods for Identifying EU Countries’ Roles in International Production Networks

Author:
Aleksandra Kordalska, Magdalena Olczyk, Roman Stöllinger, and Zuzana Zavarská
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
Geographically dispersed production networks have allowed countries to specialise in different functions of the value chain. By making use of two methodologies for quantifying the magnitude of functional specialisation – one based on trade flows and one based on FDI flows – detailed profiles of the functional specialisations of EU member states are identified. The analyses are conducted at the country, industry and regional level. In line with the existing literature, they reveal that EU-CEE countries are predominantly specialised in the fabrication stage, that is, they serve as ‘factory economies’, while the Western EU countries are mainly performing knowledge-intensive pre-fabrication activities – a characteristic of ‘headquarter economies’. This dualism within the EU is confirmed by a cluster analysis. While functional specialisation patterns tend to be persistent, especially in the fabrication stage, there are also some signs of functional diversification in EU-CEE countries in more recent years. Still, these functional changes remain limited to a few industries. The dichotomy of factory and headquarter economies is also clearly discernible at the regional level. However, the fact that in most EU countries – mainly in the capital regions – there are some headquarter-type regions implies that a complete functional ‘lock-in’ in fabrication is less likely than suggested by the country-level patterns. Hence, while the results point towards major difficulties of functional diversification beyond the fabrication stage in the EU-CEE countries and regions, there are also several promising elements and trends discernible, in particular at the industry and the regional level.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, European Union, Economy, Value Chains, Specialization, and Competition
Political Geography:
Europe

2268. FDI Spillover Effects on Innovation Activities of Knowledge-using and Knowledge-creating Firms: Evidence from an Emerging Economy

Author:
Iraj Hashi, Mehtap Hisarciklilar, Slavo Radošević, Nebojša Stojčić, and Nina Vujanović
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
The beneficial effects of innovation for firms’ performance and competitiveness are well documented, but it has been suggested in recent years that innovation regimes differ between advanced and emerging economies. While advanced economies rely on knowledge generation, their emerging counterparts follow mainly a knowledge-use regime through the application of existing knowledge and technology. Climbing up the technological ladder can be helped through spillovers from foreign investors to local firms. We investigate whether FDI spillovers influence different phases of the innovation process (from decision to innovate to productivity) among knowledge-using and knowledge-creating firms in an emerging European economy. The results show that the innovation process in emerging economies is closer to the imitation than the creation of novel products. Local firms benefit from foreign counterparts in the early phase of the innovation process. Stronger FDI effects are found among firms that undertake innovation through knowledge use rather than through knowledge generation.
Topic:
Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, Economy, Investment, and Knowledge Systems
Political Geography:
Europe

2269. Industrial Robots, and Information and Communication Technology: The Employment Effects in EU Labour Markets

Author:
Stefan Jestl
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
This paper explores the effects of industrial robots and information and communication technology (ICT) on regional employment in EU countries. The empirical analysis relies on a harmonised comprehensive regional dataset, which combines business statistics and national and regional accounts data. This rich dataset enables us to provide detailed insights into the employment effects of automation and computerisation in EU regions for the period 2001-2016. The results suggest relatively weak effects on regional total employment dynamics. However, employment effects differ between manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries. Industrial robots show negative employment effects in local manufacturing industries, but positive employment effects in local non-manufacturing industries. While the negative effect is concentrated in particular local manufacturing industries, the positive effect operates in local service industries. IT investments show positive employment effects only in local manufacturing industries, while CT investments are shown to be irrelevant for employment dynamics. In contrast, software and database investments have had a predominantly negative impact on local employment in both local manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries.
Topic:
Labor Issues, European Union, Employment, Industry, Robotics, and Labor Market
Political Geography:
Europe

2270. Does my Computer Protect me from Burnout? Cross-country Evidence on the Impact of ICT use within the Job Demands-Resources Model

Author:
Sandra Leitner and Roman Stöllinger
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
This paper uses a large sample of employees from 35 European countries to study the direct and indirect effects of ICT use on burnout and work engagement as two opposite poles of employee psychological health, where the former comprises the three dimensions of exhaustion, cynicism and professional efficacy. It applies the Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) model and analyses the mediating role of three job demands (work extensity, work intensity, social demands) and four job resources (social support from management or colleagues, job control, rewards) on workers’ psychological health. It accounts for the importance of the place of work for the effect of ICT use on workers’ psychological health by differentiating between four types of workers: home-based workers, highly mobile workers, occasionally mobile workers, and workers who always work at the employer’s premises. The results show that ICT use is associated with lower levels of exhaustion but is unrelated to work engagement. Furthermore, work intensity, work extensity, social demands and rewards mediate the effect of ICT use on exhaustion, while job control and rewards mediate the effect of ICT use on work engagement. Our multi-group analysis attributes the negative effect of ICT use on exhaustion mainly to occasionally mobile workers and to workers who always work at the employer’s premises and highlights that the factors that mediate the effect of ICT use on workers’ psychological health differ across the four types of workers. Home-based workers stand out in two important respects: first, ICT use per se is unrelated to burnout; second, only one factor – work intensity – mediates the effect of ICT use on burnout, but its effect is especially strong.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Work Culture, Engagement, Computers, and Burnout
Political Geography:
Europe