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181. The Realist debate in the context of the War in Ukraine: balancing dynamics, international change and strategic calculus

Author:
Layla Ibrahim Abdallah Dawood and Eugenio Pacelli Lazzarotti Diniz Costa
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:
Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:
The article discusses Mearsheimer’s interpretation of Russia’s use of force against Ukraine based on concepts and categories of Offensive Realism. It is argued that external balancing lost its place during unipolarity. However, Russian internal balancing is one of the factors that enabled the current conflict, and Russia’s rapprochement with China diminishes the prospects for conflict in Asia, allowing Russian military efforts to be concentrated in the European theater. Additionally, the decision to use force will be analyzed in its strategic dimension. It is concluded that Russia’s activities against Ukraine are entirely consistent with Offensive Realism, despite of Mearsheimer’s allegations contrarywise.
Topic:
International Relations, Realism, Russia-Ukraine War, and Balance of Power
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

182. The EU’s Response to the Gaza War Is a Tale of Contradiction and Division

Author:
Martin Konečný
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:
School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:
Since the Hamas attacks on October 7 and the start of Israel’s retaliatory offensive in the Gaza Strip, European Union (EU) member states have broadly split into three camps. At one end are those who have professed to stand “on the side of Israel”, flying its flag on government buildings, backing its military campaign, and avoiding criticism even after the Israeli army flattened most of Gaza and killed thousands of Palestinian civilians. The Czech Republic, Austria, and Hungary stand out in this camp, followed by Germany. At the other end of the spectrum are governments that proclaim to stand “on the side of peace” and, while strongly condemning Hamas, have been calling for a ceasefire and openly criticizing Israel for violating international humanitarian law. Belgium, Spain, and Ireland are the most vocal members of this moderate camp, followed by France and several others. The third, middle camp, is made up of those who are somewhere in between the first two groups: siding with Israel but in less absolute terms than the first camp. It would be wrong to label the moderate camp as “pro-Palestinian”. The fact is that there is no pro-Palestinian camp at the level of EU governments: none of them has hoisted Palestinian flags or primarily condemned the Israeli occupation or its devastating Gaza offensive, as many countries in the so-called Global South have done. The only vocal exception may be Spain’s Deputy Prime Minister Yolanda Díaz of the leftwing Sumar party who has denounced “Israeli apartheid” and called for sanctions and an arms embargo against Israel. However, her statements do not represent the position of the government as a whole.
Topic:
European Union, Hamas, Israeli–Palestinian Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

183. The inflation surge in Europe

Author:
Patrick Honohan
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
For most of the decade before the COVID-19 pandemic, undershooting rather than overshooting had been the main inflation problem of the European Central Bank (ECB). During 2020, consumer prices in the euro area were falling; by the end of that year, average inflation since the introduction of the euro two decades earlier stood at only 1.6 percent per year. Things began to snowball in 2021. The 12-month inflation rate steadily accelerated. It reached double digits in the final quarter of 2022—more than twice the level it had ever reached since the euro’s introduction in 1999. Four striking features emerge from a review of the unexpected surge in European inflation since 2021: (1) The ECB’s monetary policy response lagged behind that of the US Federal Reserve, reflecting the more gradual evolution of inflation in the euro area and its distinct pattern of causes; (2) the range of inflation rates across different euro area countries has been unprecedented. This largely reflects the differential impact of war-related energy shocks (especially for natural gas piped from Russia) as well as the differential fiscal response by national governments partially insulating consumers from these shocks; (3) not all households were net losers from the inflation, with some benefiting from the fact that inflation reduced the real value of their indebtedness; and (4) the speed with which inflation was returning toward target during 2023 prompted concerns that the ECB’s monetary tightening might have been pushed too far, prolonging the output slowdown.
Topic:
Monetary Policy, European Union, Inflation, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe

184. Trade policy, industrial policy, and the economic security of the European Union

Author:
Chad P. Bown
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
Out of fear about its economic security, the European Union is transitioning to a new form of international economic and policy engagement. This paper explores some of the major trade issues surrounding the bloc’s economic security, the role of trade and industrial policies in achieving its objectives, and some of the economic costs of doing so. It begins by explaining why economic security is suddenly playing such a prominent role and providing early evidence to motivate these government interventions. It then turns to a case study—new policies associated with China’s exports of electric vehicles and graphite—that highlights the difficult choices and practical challenges the European Union faces in tailoring policy to address concerns over economic security. The paper then introduces the domestic policy instruments that the European Union, its member states, and other governments are pursuing to address economic security, including stockpiling and inventory management, investment or production subsidies, tariffs, export controls, and regulations on foreign investment, as well as the scope for selective international cooperation over such policy instruments. The paper concludes with some caveats about abandoning interdependence and lessons from history.
Topic:
Security, Industrial Policy, European Union, Trade Policy, and Economic Security
Political Geography:
Europe

185. Tackling the UK's regional economic inequality: Binding constraints and avenues for policy intervention

Author:
Anna Stansbury, Dan Turner, and Ed Balls
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
This paper analyzes binding constraints to productivity growth in the United Kingdom’s regions outside London and the greater South East. These analyses challenge a number of common arguments about the UK’s regional economic inequality problem. The authors find little evidence consistent with the hypotheses (i) that low shares of university graduates remain the primary constraint on growth for the UK’s regions; (ii) that there is a generalized issue with access to finance for firms outside the South East; or (iii) that low or falling regional migration rates are to blame for the persistence of the UK’s regional economic inequalities. Instead, they find evidence consistent with (i) a specific relative shortage of STEM degrees; (ii) binding transport infrastructure constraints within major non-London conurbations; (iii) a failure of public innovation policy to support clusters beyond the South East, in particular through the regional distribution of public support for research and development (R&D); and (iv) missed opportunities for higher internal mobility due to London’s overheating housing market. The authors also find some suggestive evidence consistent with constraints on access to early-stage equity financing for high growth-potential small and medium-sized enterprises in certain regions.
Topic:
Finance, Economic Growth, Economic Inequality, and Productivity
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

186. False promises: The authoritarian development models of China and Russia

Author:
Joseph Lemoine, Dan Negrea, Patrick Quirk, and Lauren Van Metre
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Are authoritarian regimes more successful than free countries in offering prosperity to their people? The answer is decidedly no, yet China and Russia actively advertise the “benefits” and “promise” of their authoritarian development model. Beijing and Moscow contend that their governance model—rooted in central control of political, social, and economic life—delivers for their people. The facts prove exactly the opposite and show that countries characterized by repression and concentrated control are far less successful across all metrics of human development than are free societies. That free societies are better for the people residing in them is not an ideological position; it is a statement of fact backed by substantial evidence, including, but not limited to, the Atlantic Council’s Freedom and Prosperity Indexes. This paper aims to showcase why and how the authoritarian development model is inferior to that of free societies. The first section documents democratic backsliding and the reversal of freedom’s fortunes. The second section presents data on how authoritarian regimes have failed to deliver prosperity for their people. The third section outlines how free societies have done the opposite—delivered sustained prosperity for their citizens. The final section offers the conclusion that authoritarian regimes, despite their claims, cannot deliver democratic progress or prosperity for society at large.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, Diplomacy, Politics, Authoritarianism, Reform, and Democratic Transitions
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, and Asia

187. Who’s a national security risk? The changing transatlantic geopolitics of data transfers

Author:
Kenneth Propp
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The geopolitics of transatlantic data transfers have been unvarying for the past decade. European governments criticize the US National Security Agency (NSA) for exploiting personal data moving from Europe to the United States for commercial reasons. The US government responds, through a series of arrangements with the European Union, by providing assurances that NSA collection is not disproportionate, and that Europeans have legal avenues if they believe their data has been illegally used. Although the arrangements have not proven legally stable, on the whole they have sufficed to keep data flowing via subsea cables under the Atlantic Ocean. Now the locus of national security concerns about international data transfers has shifted from Brussels to Washington. The Biden administration and the US Congress, in a series of bold measures, are moving aggressively to interrupt certain cross-border data flows, notably to China and Russia. The geopolitics of international data flows remain largely unchanged in Europe, however. European data protection authorities have been mostly noncommittal about the prospect of Russian state surveillance collecting Europeans’ personal data. Decisions on whether to transfer European data to Russia and China remain in the hands of individual companies. Will Washington’s new focus on data transfers to authoritarian states have an impact in Europe? Will Europe continue to pay more attention to the surveillance activities of its liberal democratic allies, especially the United States? Is there a prospect of Europe and the United States aligning on the national security risks of transfers to authoritarian countries?
Topic:
National Security, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Geopolitics, Economy, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

188. The Gini Trade Index: What Can We Learn from A New Trade Indicator?

Author:
Lucian Cernat
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
This Policy Brief introduces the Gini Trade Index (GTI) as a new trade synthetic key performance indicator capable of capturing the different distribution of trade values across firm characteristics and across countries. The new indicator replicates the well-known features of the traditional Gini Index, a widely used metric for the skewness of several socioeconomic indicators, in particular income inequality. The Policy Brief calculates the Gini Trade Index for all EU member states and contrasts the case of Slovakia and Cyprus, the EU countries situated at the opposite ends of the Gini Trade Index. The paper finds that the GTI has increased over time in most EU countries and offers a tentative range of optimal GTI values. The final section offers several examples of trade policy initiatives that can reduce trade concentration and lead to greater participation of small and medium enterprises in global trade.
Topic:
European Union, Trade, and Socioeconomics
Political Geography:
Europe, Cyprus, and Slovakia

189. Regulating the Working Conditions of Platform Work: What Can We Learn from EU Member States?

Author:
Oscar Guinea, Elena Sisto, and Oscar du Roy
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
Policymakers in Estonia, France, Greece, and Spain share the common objective of enhancing the working conditions of platform workers. However, variations in their labour markets, legal frameworks, and political landscapes have led to four distinct approaches in achieving this goal. Predominantly, the Spanish regulation has been geared towards attempting to reclassify platform workers from self-employed to employees. In contrast, the regulatory strategies in France and Greece have focused on retaining the sector within the realm of independent work, while simultaneously improving the working conditions of platform workers. Estonia adopted a broader perspective, emphasising the enhancement of working conditions for all freelancers, not exclusively those categorised as platform workers. This Policy Brief offers a comprehensive evaluation and comparison of the regulatory frameworks governing platform work in four European countries. The comparative analysis draws upon research conducted by the OECD and the World Economic Forum (WEF) on the principles of good regulation. Adapting this research to the context of digital platforms, three key principles for assessing the regulation of working conditions on these platforms were identified: (i) the consistency with the policy objective of improving the working conditions of platform workers; (ii) the feasibility of implementing the regulatory requirements; (iii) the presence of regulatory dialogue and appeal mechanisms. The evaluation of the four countries’ regulations against the three outlined principles offers valuable insights into the regulation of platform work. In Spain, the primary aim of the regulation regarding platform workers was not solely the improvement of working conditions but predominantly the reclassification of platform workers from self-employed to employees. This distinction is crucial, as platform workers highly value the benefits of self-employment, such as access to work, income opportunities, flexibility, and autonomy. Evidence presented in this study suggests that a majority of Spanish delivery workers preferred to maintain their self-employed status, while only about one-third expressed a desire to be classified as employees. Moreover, the Spanish regulation is characterised by a broad formulation of the conditions defining employment for digital delivery workers. This lack of specificity has led to an uncertain application of the regulation, with digital platforms adopting diverse strategies to achieve compliance. Ultimately, the Spanish regulatory framework has been marred by a profound disregard for the interests of, and a notable lack of communication with, those directly impacted by the regulation: the digital platforms and the platform workers. Greece has demonstrated that it is possible to enhance working conditions for platform workers while preserving the advantages of self-employment. The Greek regulation mandates that digital platforms adhere to the same welfare, health, and safety obligations for platform workers as they would for employees. Additionally, Greece has established clear criteria to define the presumption of self-employment for platform workers. This clarity offers legal certainty and enabled platform workers to accurately assess their employment status. Consequently, there has been a notable reduction in court cases regarding the classification of platform workers. France has progressively developed a comprehensive legal framework that has systematically enhanced the rights of platform workers. This development culminated in six pivotal agreements, addressing some of the most challenging aspects of working conditions on digital platforms, such as account deactivation and minimum revenue. These agreements were reached under the auspices of the Autorité des Relations Sociales des Plateformes d’Emploi (ARPE), a public entity instrumental in facilitating effective social dialogue between digital platforms and trade unions. The establishment of clear administrative procedures governing the negotiations within ARPE has been crucial in formulating measures that digital platforms can effectively implement. Estonia’s primary focus is on ensuring adequate working conditions for all freelancers, including platform workers. A considerable number of platform workers in Estonia engage in a contract-for-services (töövõtuleping) with digital platforms. This contract offers a social safety net, including unemployment benefits, sick pay, and healthcare services, while retaining the self-employed status of platform workers. Moreover, this framework provides clarity regarding the rights and responsibilities of both platform workers and digital platforms, facilitating the implementation of a clear and unambiguous regulatory system.
Topic:
Labor Issues, European Union, Regulation, Digital Economy, and Labor Market
Political Geography:
Europe

190. EU Autonomy, the Brussels Effect, and the Rise of Global Economic Protectionism

Author:
Matthias Bauer and Dyuti Pandya
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
The Brussels Effect, once emblematic of the EU’s alleged influence in shaping global regulations, has now become a factor contributing to global regulatory fragmentation. The EU must recalibrate its trajectory towards a liberal and rules-based trading order, prioritising widespread regulatory liberalisation to counteract the risks of global protectionism and regulatory spirals. A holistic approach, both internally and globally, is crucial to prevent regulatory and subsidy spirals on a global scale. This recalibration is essential to keep global markets open and enhance the EU’s own economic and technological competitiveness. In response to the 2008 financial crises, the EU underwent a shift in its approach to global trade, transitioning towards Strategic Autonomy. However, this gradual move away from a liberal global trade order has led to increased regulatory burdens and regulatory fragmentation, impacting businesses within and beyond the EU. The Brussels Effect, as denoted in this paper, highlights the EU’s signalling effect on other governments in considering and implementing regulations. This effect has contributed to increased trade restrictiveness and regulatory fragmentation globally. The EU’s insistence on “autonomy” and “European values” not only empowers others to follow suit, contributing to the rise in global protectionism, but also contradicts the EU’s historical support for open trade principles and its commitment to a highly competitive social market economy. A wealth of EU regulatory data reveals a stagnation and, in many cases, a regression in regulatory cooperation within the Single Market. This is evident from rising trade restrictiveness and a tendency towards increased legal fragmentation instead of convergence across the EU. The evolving regulatory acquis of the EU, coupled with insufficient cooperation and stalled trade agreements, poses risks beyond its borders. The EU’s paradigm shift towards autonomy contributes to global regulatory spirals and protectionist measures, particularly evident in services trade. Despite the EU’s historical commitment to harmonisation and liberalisation, many sectors, such as transport and logistics, telecoms, and digital services, have witnessed the imposition of new laws and rules that hinder trade. With the EU’s share of global GDP expected to decrease to 9% by 2050, there is a critical need for EU governments to enhance its regulatory capabilities and foster innovation. To wield influence in global economic diplomacy, EU policymakers must prioritise policies that unleash the collective ingenuity of individuals and businesses that help to maintain high levels of productivity, competitiveness, and prosperity.
Topic:
Globalization, European Union, Economy, Autonomy, Protectionism, and WTO
Political Geography:
Europe