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31. Baltic and Nordic States Assess the Russian Military Threat

Author:
Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The newest intelligence reports by the Baltic and Nordic states jointly warn about the aggressive intentions and reconstitution of Russia’s armed forces. All of the documents assume the successful implementation of plans for larger Russian land and airborne forces till the end of 2026. However, these reports differ in the estimates of when the political moment and Russia’s conventional capabilities may permit it to initiate open conflict with NATO. Despite their informational and analytical contents, these reports may affect the Baltic region states’ capabilities development plans and their decisions about whether to increase defence spending.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, Armed Forces, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Nordic Nations, and Baltic States

32. Carbon leakage through supply chain adjustments

Author:
Hanyi Wang
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
This paper examines carbon leakage through supply chain recalibration in response to European carbon policies. Using input-output data and a high-frequency identification approach for carbon policy shocks, this paper investigates whether stringent carbon regulations in Europe affect the imports of carbon-intensive inputs from major emerging economies lacking similar policies. The findings reveal a temporary increase in the rate of change of imports from emerging countries relative to all inputs in the carbon-intensive sectors following carbon policy shocks, with effects peaking after two years before dissipating. While not directly quantifying emissions transfer, this study suggests some evidence of short-term input substitution patterns consistent with carbon leakage through international supply chains.
Topic:
Carbon Emissions, Imports, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
Europe

33. Local feminist perspectives as transformation levers for sustainable development in Ukraine in the context of ongoing defence

Author:
Olena Strelnyk, Liudmyla Yuzva, and Tamara Zlobina
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
The research in this discussion paper explores the significant role of feminist perspectives and actions in fostering sustainable gender-transformative changes within Ukraine, particularly during the ongoing defence against Russian aggression. It highlights the ability of feminist movements to catalyse long-term shifts towards gender equality and social inclusion, with a focus on women’s and LGBT+ rights. Despite the challenges of war, feminist activists continue to push for transformative policies that not only address immediate wartime needs, but also lay the foundation for gender-responsive defence, inclusive recovery and post-war reconstruction. This study examines the impact of feminist actions and perspectives on various sectors of Ukrainian society, the barriers they face and the opportunities that remain for strengthening feminist policies during and after the war. The research timeline spans 2014-2024, corresponding to the duration of Russia’s war against Ukraine, with a particular emphasis on the period of the full-scale invasion from 2022 to 2024.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Feminism, LGBT+, Russia-Ukraine War, Sustainable Development, and Gender Equality
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

34. Hybrid threats: the new horizons for a "Europe of internal security"?

Author:
Jean Mafart
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
Even today, most of our fellow citizens are unaware that the European Union is actively involved in the fight against terrorism, money laundering and drug trafficking, in border protection and in the harmonisation of criminal legislation[1]. This is why a European internal security strategy, ProtectEU published by the Commission on April 1st is important : it defines the European Union's work programme for the coming years, within the framework of the guidelines laid down by the European Council. The assessment of the previous internal security strategy (for the period 2020-2025) shows that this kind of programme has real scope: the Commission announced numerous initiatives that were actually completed, even if, as time goes by, the action inevitably deviates from the initial intentions in response to circumstances. Since the successive strategies are work programmes for a given period, none of them really resembles the previous one. On the other hand, the major underlying themes vary relatively little: terrorism, organised crime and external border control were, as it is the case today, key concerns of the ‘founding fathers’ of the ‘area of freedom, security and justice’ (AFSJ). The doubling of the staff of Europol, the agency responsible which supports Member States in the fight against crime, and the tripling of the staff of the European Border Guard, which are part of the Frontex agency, are also the most spectacular proposals of the new strategy, even if they had already been voiced by the President of the Commission at the beginning of her second term. The arrival of a new theme is therefore bound to attract attention: in this case, it is striking to see the space given over to hybrid threats (a whole chapter, eight pages out of the thirty in the document published on 1 April). A sad sign of the times: it is no longer conceivable to develop an internal security policy without addressing, alongside the more ‘traditional’ themes, the growing threat of destabilisation operations of all kinds coming from Russia or elsewhere. The link between the internal and external dimensions of security is obviously nothing new: in France, the White Paper on defence and national security published in 2008 already considered that ‘the distinction between internal and external security is no longer relevant’. Current geopolitical tensions and the development of hybrid threats are blatantly reinforcing this. How can the ‘internal security of Europe’, initially conceived to respond to internal issues - compensating for the effects of free movement between Member States - adapt to take better account of threats from the outside?
Topic:
Security, European Union, and Hybrid Threats
Political Geography:
Europe

35. The end of the energy price crisis must not mean the end of the energy transition

Author:
Valérie Plagnol
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
In many respects, Europe has recently experienced a rude awakening, albeit a salutary one. Barely recovered from the Covid pandemic, it has had to contend with the most serious energy supply crisis since the oil shocks of the 1970s, due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent disruption of Russian gas supplies, particularly via the Nord Stream pipelines. After electricity prices rose to extreme levels, their recent decline in Europe is particularly welcome. But this respite is far from enough. On the one hand, electricity prices are still higher than before the crisis and, on the other hand, they remain almost twice as high as those of our main trading partners, weighing on household purchasing power and business competitiveness. Such constraints, combined with rising geostrategic and trade tensions and the need to strengthen our common defence, have led some segments of European public opinion, including some economic actors, to question the efforts undertaken in the energy and climate transition. However, there can be no question of abandoning the path of energy transition, as the current tensions confirm the necessity and legitimacy of this approach. - This is, of course, about our climate future: numerous and consistent studies show that doing nothing rather than taking action will cost our economies and ourselves much more. - Geopolitical and economic tensions are accentuating the convergence between these imperatives and the need to strengthen our sovereignty, through diversification of supply sources and greater control of production cycles on our own soil. - The growing electrification of uses is generating a new industrial revolution – particularly in the mobility and artificial intelligence sectors – creating an economic and ecological dynamic that Europe is in a position to capture. Combining these imperatives therefore means accelerating the transition to energy and decarbonising our consumption. The current crisis has shown us that massive reliance on natural gas cannot be as stable a transition solution as we had hoped. Rising electricity prices have led to an acceleration of renewable energy projects and installations. More Member States support the development of nuclear power, better integrated into the overall mix and included in the European taxonomy. France, which is committed to renewing its facilities, is at the forefront of these efforts. Finally, strengthening and reorganising our electricity networks, including the development of interconnections, is already at the heart of our industrial strategies.
Topic:
Electricity, COVID-19, Energy Crisis, Russia-Ukraine War, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
Europe

36. Slovakia: civil society opposes its leaders

Author:
Radovan Gura and Gilles Rouet
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
For some years now, Slovakia has been going through a period of profound political change. Marked by a complex history influenced by the Pan-Slavic movement and the legacy of the communist period, the Slovak political scene is characterised by growing instability, a division of society and a rise in populist discourse. Successive events have fuelled discontent and protests, which are now directed at the Prime Minister Robert Fico.
Topic:
Civil Society, Elections, Populism, Domestic Politics, and Post-Communism
Political Geography:
Europe and Slovakia

37. When sleepwalkers awake: German plea for a new European security architecture - a German point of view

Author:
Stéphane Beemelmans
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
For three years, a war has been raging on Europe's borders between two geographically connected states – a conflict that originated in Russia's occupation of Crimea and Donbass almost 11 years ago. Since then, every political and military decision-maker in our part of Europe should have realized that there is a (great) power on our continent that is ready at any time to put ‘war as a continuation of politics by other means’ (Clausewitz) into practice. The deterrent mechanism between the former blocs, which had been effective for almost 50 years and thus prevented war, has evidently given way to a ‘laissez-faire’ on the part of the European states, which has allowed Russia to attack and partially occupy Ukraine with complete impunity, using a crude mix of historical and political justifications that violate international law. What should not have happened could not be seen and therefore could not be addressed appropriately. Our and NATO's ‘laissez-faire’ was based on the for malistic argument that no NATO member country had been attacked and on the lack of strategic foresight disguised as ‘hope’, the expression of which under international law was the ‘Minsk Peace Agreement’ of 2015. The hope, namely, that this attack could be localized and thus geographically restricted or ‘frozen’.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Regional Security, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

38. European support to the defence industry - Mid-term review of the European Defence Fund

Author:
Nicolas-Jean Brehon
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
Poland has made security one of its top priorities during its Presidency of the Council (January-June 2025). Almost a year ago, the Commission presented a European Defence Industry Programme (EDIP) aimed at strengthening European industrial capabilities. If implemented, this programme will bolster the European Defence Fund (EDF), launched in 2021 and which has already financed one hundred and sixty-two armaments industry programmes. Cooperation projects are numerous and extensive. The programmes selected by the Commission bring together an average of seventeen entities, and it takes care to appoint coordinating leaders in almost all the Member States. Questions are now beginning to emerge. After three years, it is useful to draw up a mid-term review to inform future choices.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Defense Industry
Political Geography:
Europe

39. Polish Presidency of the Council - A paradigm shift in Poland's European policy

Author:
Piotr Buras and Michał Matlak
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
Poland is holding the Presidency of the Council of the European Union in the first half of 2025. After a controversial Hungarian presidency and political turbulence in France and Germany, European public opinion is looking to Poland, where an openly Eurosceptic government was ousted in the 2023 elections. This change has come at a time when the European Union is facing major existential challenges, in particular with the war in Ukraine, which are especially resonant in Poland. The hopes pinned on Poland are as much a reflection of the impression of a leadership vacuum in Europe that Warsaw - who else at the moment? - could fill, as well as the country's growing economic and geopolitical position after two decades of EU membership.
Topic:
Public Opinion, European Union, Geopolitics, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland

40. EU’s Strategic Net-zero Technology Promotion Policies and Global Supply Chains

Author:
Youngook Jang
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
This brief examines recent trends in the EU's industrial and trade policies related to net-zero strategic technologies and their supply chains. It then analyzes the impact of these policies on global supply chain reshaping. As a major player in global supply chains and an active participant in the transition to a net-zero economy, the EU has recently been promoting industrial competitiveness through various industrial and trade policies. Quantitative analyses imply that these policies will likely increase intra-EU trade and reduce extra-EU trade. Korea should respond and adapt to changes in the global trade environment by drawing up Korean industrial policies using EU examples as a reference.
Topic:
Science and Technology, European Union, Trade Policy, Supply Chains, and Net Zero
Political Geography:
Europe and South Korea