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1. Civil War in the Horn of Africa?: Four Possible Trajectories for Ethiopia

Author:
James Barnett
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
A civil war is erupting in Ethiopia—Africa’s second most populous state, a geopolitical fulcrum in the volatile Red Sea arena, and the seat of the African Union (AU). The question now is whether a ceasefire can quickly be brokered that would, in the best case, serve as the basis for a broader national dialogue aimed at stabilizing the country’s political transition; or whether the situation will devolve into a multisided conflict that draws in neighboring states and further destabilizes what is already one of the world’s most fragile regions. As of this writing, the latter unfortunately seems more likely, but there is still hope for a ceasefire, particularly if Ethiopia’s regional and international partners make a concerted push for de-escalation. One should not use the term “civil war” lightly, but this appears to be the course that Ethiopia is on. While in recent years the country has suffered from intercommunal clashes, assassinations, a coup attempt, and a low-level insurgency, this is the first time that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government has faced a direct challenge from a well-armed state within the state. The stakes are high. With a population of over 100 million, the United States Institute of Peace’s senior study group on the Red Sea warns that Ethiopia’s disintegration would constitute “the largest state collapse in modern history.”
Topic:
International Relations, Civil War, Geopolitics, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa, Ethiopia, and Horn of Africa

2. African Marxist Military Regimes, Rise and Fall: Internal Conditioners and International Dimensions

Author:
Paulo Fagundes Visentini
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:
The historical dimension is used in a limited or selective way in the analysis of contemporary international relations, and it needs to be developed. Recovering the theme and the period from 1970-1980 means, therefore, both a historical and a theoretical matter. International Relations, as an area dominated by political science, has been a field of study marked by theorizations with little empirical basis and instrumental character. Without the State building, of ruling elites and social transformations promoted by revolutionary processes, the situation of Angola, Mozambique and Ethiopia, for example, would not have allowed their current international prominence.
Topic:
International Relations, Socialism/Marxism, Authoritarianism, and History
Political Geography:
Africa, Mozambique, Ethiopia, and Angola

3. Beyond Borders and Leaders: Toward Sustainable Peace for Ethiopia and Eritrea

Author:
Mehari Taddele Maru
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
The lesson here is that Ethiopia and Eritrea should not envisage sustainable peace to be brokered by external actors. Rather the solution should come from a genuine effort from both sides
Topic:
International Relations
Political Geography:
Ethiopia

4. The construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and geopolitical tension between Egypt and Ethiopia with Sudan in the mix

Author:
Michael Asiedu
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
Egypt's President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi indicated in a televised broadcast on 16 January, 2018 that his country neither wants war with Sudan nor Ethiopia; Egypt was also not looking to meddle in the internal affairs of these two countries. These pronouncements came at the backdrop of what is proving to be a challenge for these three countries, the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), the largest hydro-electric dam project in Africa. This policy brief gives a snapshot of the brewing tension surrounding the GERD and some of the regional geopolitical concerns as well as an alternative for a workable solution.
Topic:
International Relations and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
Ethiopia

5. Avoiding Conflict in the Horn of Africa: U.S. Policy Toward Ethiopia and Eritrea

Author:
Terrance Lyons
Publication Date:
12-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
In 2006, the Horn of Africa witnessed major escalations in several conflicts, a marked deterioration of governance in critical states, and a general unraveling of U.S. foreign policy toward the strategically located region. The U.S.-brokered Algiers Agreement to end the 1998–2000 border war between Ethiopia and Eritrea is at a crossroads. Ethiopia has resisted implementing the decisions made by the Eritrea-Ethiopia Border Commission (EEBC), Eritrea has imposed unilateral restrictions on the United Nations Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE), and both states have rejected the EEBC's plans to demarcate the border unilaterally. In Sudan, implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement remains incomplete, and the violence in Darfur continues to rage and spill into Chad. In Somalia, the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) has failed to establish itself outside of Baidoa and its rival, the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC), has seized control of Mogadishu and much of southern Somalia. The rapid rise of the UIC in mid-2006 in particular amplified prospects for regional conflict as Ethiopia and Eritrea sent significant military support to the opposing sides. On December 6, 2006, the UN Security SudanCouncil unanimously endorsed Resolution 1725, a plan supported by Washington to deploy African troops to prop up the authorities in Baidoa. The Islamic Courts have stated that this intervention will be regarded as an invading force and will escalate, rather than reduce, the conflict.
Topic:
International Relations and Development
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, United States, Washington, Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Eritrea

6. Automating Public Financial Management in Developing Countries

Author:
Stephen Peterson
Publication Date:
10-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
The principal recommendation to developing countries for automating their financial systems is to adopt off ‐ the ‐ shelf integrated financial information system s (IFMISs). The recommendation to adopt an IFMIS goes beyond a strategy of automation. IFMISs are often viewed as the driver of financial reform in developing countries. Experience shows that these systems usually fail or under perform yet research to date has not adequately explained their poor performance. This paper presents two frameworks and a case study from Ethiopia which illustrates an approach to automating financial systems that has worked. The first framework distinguishes between business process innovation (reengineering) and process change. Process innovation is a comprehensive change of procedures and organization driven by information technology. Process change is an incremental strategy driven by procedural reform and supported by information technology. Process change is far less risky than process innovation and is a more appropriate approach because the financial systems in most developing countries are relatively sound and thus provide a basis for improvement. The conventional off ‐ the ‐ shelf IFMIS reform is principally process innovation which exceeds the capacity of most public bureaucracies in developing countries. The second framework concerns the three factors of risk to an automation project: scope, schedule and budget. The availability of concessionary aid to many developing countries means there is not a hard budget constraint to automation projects and there is little discipline with schedule and scope. The virtual absence of a financial and social cost ‐ benefit analysis of these large and questionable investments is a serious failing in the use of development assistance and loans. The custom IFMIS developed to support the Ethiopian reform is presented as an example of a successful low risk strategy of automation in a difficult environment. The case illustrates the two frameworks as the reform focused on process change and the automation component was delivered on budget, ahead of schedule and beyond specification. The Ethiopian case demonstrates several lessons about automation in developing countries: the virtue of process change, the role of automation to support not drive financial reform, the virtue of 'optimal obscurity' of automation projects given that high level commitment cannot be assumed, and the value of an incremental development strategy of frequent operational upgrades of information systems.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, International Trade and Finance, and Third World
Political Geography:
Ethiopia

7. Asset Portfolios in Africa: Evidence from Rural Ethiopia

Author:
Christian Rogg
Publication Date:
11-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper considers asset holdings in rural Ethiopia. It shows that households own mostly non-financial assets and that the composition of asset portfolios varies significantly with the household's overall wealth and its exposure to uncertainty. As regards the distribution of assets, inequality is lowest for land holdings and much higher for all other assets. More generally, asset inequality is higher than consumption inequality but, somewhat surprisingly, lower than income inequality. Less surprising is the finding that asset holdings are positively correlated with income and consumption. An analysis of how asset holdings vary with key demographic variables shows that assets increase with the size of the household and the education of the household head. Finally, the paper concludes by exploring the role that assets play in marriage markets in rural Ethiopia.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

8. The Structure and Performance of Ethiopia's Financial Sector in the Pre- and Post-Reform Period with a Special Focus on Banking

Author:
Alemayehu Geda
Publication Date:
10-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Since 1992 Ethiopia has been engaged in liberalizing its financial sector. The hallmark of the strategy is gradualism. The approach is not without problems especially from Bretton Woods Institutions that saw the reform as a sluggish process. This study examines this liberalization program by analyzing the performance of the sector before and after the reform. The study notes that given the nascent development of the financial sector in the country, the relatively good shape in which the existing financial institutions find themselves, and given that supervision and regulation capacity of the regulating agency is weak, the government's strategy of gradualism and its over all reform direction is encouraging. However, we argue for charting out clearly defined time frame for liberalization and exploring the possibility of engaging with foreign banks to acquire new technology that enhance the efficiency of the financial sector in general and the banking sector in particular.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

9. Religion and conflict in Africa with a special focus on East Africa

Author:
Bjørn Moller
Publication Date:
06-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
The report provides a brief overview of the religious landscape of Africa with a special focus on the role of religion in the continent's several conflicts. It then proceeds to look at East Africa, where the three religious “families” of traditional religion, Islam and Christianity are all present in large numbers. It does not find any significant correlation between conflict propensity or terrorism and religion, neither in the sense that religious diversity gives rise to any “clash of civilizations” nor in the sense that the predominance of any one religion (e.g. Islam) make a country more prone to conflict or terrorism. It then proceeds to country case studies of Djibouti, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan, Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda, providing a brief overview of the history of religion and conflict and an assessment of the present situation and the prospects for the future.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Religion
Political Geography:
Uganda, Kenya, Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Ethiopia, Somalia, Eritrea, and East Africa

10. Ethiopia: Implications of the May 2005 Elections for Future Democratization Programs

Author:
Terrence Lyons
Publication Date:
08-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Academy of Political Science
Abstract:
May 15, 2005 elections presented the Ethiopian people a remarkable opportunity to express their political views by participating in a poll that offered them a meaningful choice. In contrast to earlier elections in 1995 and 2000, opposition parties did not boycott but rather competed vigorously across the country. Opposition party mistrust of the National Electoral Board of Ethiopia (NEBE), reports of intimidation and violence, and highly polarizing rhetoric raised concerns during the pre-election period but did not deter opposition parties from campaigning in nearly every constituency. Live, televised debates on matters of public policy, opposition party access to state-owned media, and huge, peaceful rallies in the final week of campaigning made it clear that these elections would represent a critical moment in Ethiopia's political development. The Ethiopian people recognized this opportunity and turned out in overwhelming numbers to vote, forcing some polling stations in Addis Ababa to stay open 24 hours to accommodate those in line.
Topic:
International Relations, Democratization, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia