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32. Moldova, land of the European Union's partnership mission
- Author:
- Florent Parmentier
- Publication Date:
- 10-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
- Abstract:
- Sharing 939 kilometres of borders with Ukraine, Moldova is closest to the epicentre of the war that began on 24 February 2022. From the very first weeks onwards, the Moldovan authorities had to build reception facilities for Ukrainian refugees fleeing the fighting in the south and east of the country. In diplomatic and strategic terms, this war has also played a role in accelerating events, since in June 2022 Moldova was, against all expectations, recognised as candidate country to the European Union. The credit for this European rapprochement goes largely to the leadership team headed by President Maia Sandu. He later, with her party (Party of Action and Solidarity, PAS), has led the nation's dynamic forces along this demanding path of transformation, despite the many difficulties that the country faces. The war has already changed Moldova’s geopolitical situation, which has to contend with a great number of hybrid threats from Russia. In other words, beyond the success of the European Political Community Summit, organised at Castelul Mimi on 1 June last, and the many political signals received on this occasion, Moldova still needs assistance on the road to European transformation. This is why the Europeans decided to launch a partnership mission on 31 May last in Chisinau together with the High Representative Josep Borrell, the Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Affairs Minister Nicu Popescu and the then Home Affairs Minister, Ana Revenco.
- Topic:
- European Union, Partnerships, Regional Integration, Hybrid Threats, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Ukraine, Moldova, and Eastern Europe
33. The Russo-Ukrainian War and the Exhaustion of the 1945 World Order: Tracing the Origins, Examining the Consequences
- Author:
- Manuel Becerra Ramírez
- Publication Date:
- 10-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Baku Dialogues
- Institution:
- ADA University
- Abstract:
- I n the early hours of Thursday, 24 February 2022, the government of Russian President Vladimir Putin launched what it called a “special military operation” on Ukrainian territory. On 21 February 2022, Russia officially recognized the two selfproclaimed people’s republics that had established themselves in earlier rounds of fighting. This was supposedly based on Article 51 of the UN Charter, which provides for legitimate individual or collective defense. Later that year, Russia annexed them outright. Of course, in reality, Russia’s invasion violated the UN Charter and the principles contained therein. This constitutes a disregard for the norms that emerged after World War II as understood by the proponents of the “rules-based international liberal order” and others. The UN Charter privileges the solution of conflicts by peaceful means. Legitimate defense is only permissible in the face of a current attack, not a hypothetical one (this is why, for example, the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, which was termed a “preemptive war” by the George W. Bush Administration). Moreover, the UN Security Council (with what is effectually an endorsement or legitimization function) must always be aware of such actions.
- Topic:
- History, Conflict, International Order, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe
34. What Does the Russian Army Think About its War in Ukraine? Criticisms, Recommendations, Adaptations
- Author:
- Dimitri Minic
- Publication Date:
- 09-2023
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
- Abstract:
- The Russian army is very critical of its war in Ukraine. Not just of the first phase of the failed special military operation (SVO), which was inspired by the theorization of bypassing, but also of the strategic deterrence phase that preceded it. What Does the Russian Army Think About its War in Ukraine? Criticisms, Recommendations, Adaptations Download 0.98 Mo Russian military theorists have commented on the profound lack of preparation not just for the SVO, but also—in many areas—for the heterotelic war the SVO has become. The Russian army’s weaknesses vis-à-vis the Ukrainian army are generally, and sometimes quite directly, recognized. The Russian military elites have made numerous recommendations for improving Russia’s military performance, primarily focusing on the ground and aerospace forces. Meanwhile, the Russian army has mostly adapted (more or less successfully) to the difficulties it has encountered in the last year and a half in Ukraine. Although the Putin regime is authoritarian and intent on reducing freedom of expression in Russian society, the existence and tolerance of a certain amount of truth-telling at this level of the military apparatus indicate that the Russian army’s and state’s ability to adapt should not be underestimated.
- Topic:
- Armed Forces, Deterrence, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe
35. Envisioning a Long-Term Security Arrangement for Ukraine
- Author:
- Eric Ciaramella
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The moment has arrived for Western leaders to offer a practical vision for Ukraine’s long-term security. This paper lays out a detailed proposal for a sustainable multilateral security arrangement in which Ukraine has a strong military that is backed by legally codified pledges of support—training, equipping, and defense industrial cooperation—from the United States and Europe. The model outlined in this paper draws on official Ukrainian government proposals and lessons from the United States’ security relationships with close partners that are not treaty allies, notably Israel. It prioritizes a strategy of deterrence by denial: by fielding a robust, modernized, and well-trained military, Ukraine can raise the cost of future aggression to such a point that Russia would lose confidence in its ability to achieve its objectives there through force.1 Independent of battlefield developments, Ukraine and its partners must negotiate a long-term security arrangement now. Reaching a consensus sooner rather than later on a framework makes more sense than putting off controversial decisions until large-scale hostilities end. A security arrangement has the potential to undermine President Vladimir Putin’s conviction that Russia can outlast Ukraine and the West. It can also assure Ukraine that it will be able to defend its sovereignty even if it does not liberate its entire territory this year. Many of the elements contained in this proposal can be implemented during wartime—indeed, some of them are already in place—and strengthened after the war. The proposed security model is not necessarily an alternative to NATO membership, which enjoys strong support from Ukraine’s leaders and public. The allies have promised the country an eventual place in NATO, but they have made clear that this will not be on the agenda while the war is ongoing. Even once the war ends, they are unlikely to move swiftly to admit Ukraine. Therefore, the proposal here seeks to enhance the country’s ability to defend itself as it remains outside of NATO for the foreseeable future. At the same time, it emphasizes the critical role Ukraine’s EU accession will play in its long-term security. The United States must lead the conversation on a future security arrangement. Not only does its unparalleled capacity for security assistance and multinational coordination make it vital to the success of the arrangement, but a clear long-term U.S. pledge to Ukraine would also prompt Europe to increase its commitments, thereby ensuring proper burden-sharing. The proposed arrangement would be flexible enough to encompass commitments from the EU as a collective, from individual member states, and from other countries. To make the U.S. commitment to Ukraine credible and durable, the Biden administration must work with Congress to secure broad bipartisan support. This study identifies five elements that are critical to a future security arrangement: Strong political and legal codification that ensures the arrangement will endure regardless of electoral cycles and leadership changes in the United States and Europe A predictable, multiyear pipeline for military supplies that enables Ukraine to plan and sustain a future force structure capable of deterring Russian aggression Support for Ukraine’s defense industry, as well as targeted defense industrial investments in the United States and Europe to prepare for a long war and an extended period of Ukrainian military reconstitution Mechanisms for political consultations, information sharing, and coordination to ensure that Ukraine’s military needs are met in a timely fashion Clear linkage to Ukraine’s EU accession process and postwar reconstruction Much of the public debate to date has focused on Ukraine’s request for security “guarantees” in response to the failure of the previous “assurances” encapsulated in the 1994 Budapest Memorandum. To avoid confusion, and in light of the historical baggage these terms carry, this paper uses “arrangement” or “commitment” to refer to the future legal and political framework in question.2
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, European Union, Defense Industry, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe
36. The importance of the United States in Poland’s military security policy in the context of the war in Ukraine
- Author:
- Łukasz Jureńczyk
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
- Institution:
- Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
- Abstract:
- The subject of the article is the importance of the United States in Poland’s military security policy in relation to the war in Ukraine. The article begins with an introduction discussing its main assumptions and a synthetic historical background of the importance of the US for Poland and its security. The main part of the article is divided into two parts, the first one discussing the importance of the US in Poland’s military security policy after the Cold War. The second part is devoted to the change in the importance of the US in this policy in connection with the outbreak of the war in Ukraine and the main factors that determine this change. The aim of the article is to identify and analyze the changes in the importance of the United States in the Polish military security policy as a result of the outbreak of the war in Ukraine in 2022. The main research problem is whether the importance of the US in Poland’s military security policy increased as a result of the war, and if so, because of what main factors? The thesis of the article states that the war in Ukraine increased the importance of the US as the main external guarantor of Poland’s security and defense. This is due to the leading role played by the United States in military support for Ukraine and strengthening NATO’s eastern flank, including Poland, in the absence of leadership from Western European powers. The research included interviews with scientists and analysts from research centers in Washington and New York.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Ukraine, Eastern Europe, Poland, and United States of America
37. The Russia-Ukraine Conflict: From Full-Scale War to Conflict Resolution and Post-War Recovery
- Author:
- Yuri Yakymenko, A. Bychenko, Makysm Bielawski, V. Zamiatin, and Oleksiy Melnyk
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- National Security and Defence
- Institution:
- Razumkov Centre
- Abstract:
- For 570 days, Ukraine has been living in a full-scale war against the russian aggressor, defending its freedom, independence and very right to exist. During this time, our country has suffered losses and destruction on a scale unimaginable on the European continent after the World War II. Towns and villages wrecked to the ground, tens of thousands dead, artificially created environmental disasters and constant nuclear blackmail, the deportation of Ukrainian children – an outright act of genocide against the Ukrainian people, systematic destruction of the country’s energy, transport and agricultural infrastructure, the war against the civilian population, the war-induced migration and demographic crisis are just a few points in the long list of disasters caused by russian aggression.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, National Security, Economy, Energy, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe
38. Strategic Partners of Ukraine (Realities and Priorities in War)
- Author:
- M. Pashkov, Mykola Sunhurovskyi, P. Stetsiuk, S. Chekunova, M. Mischenko, and O. Pyshchulina
- Publication Date:
- 12-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- National Security and Defence
- Institution:
- Razumkov Centre
- Abstract:
- The topic of strategic partnership is particularly relevant due to the new warinduced priorities and goals of Ukraine’s foreign policy, and to dynamic geopolitical trends and processes. The Ukraine war has generated new challenges and threats, triggered a dangerous polarisation of the international community, escalated conflict and unpredictability both globally and regionally. Amidst russia’s large-scale aggression, Kyiv is undergoing complex processes of establishing war diplomacy, improving and transforming its goals, objectives and priorities in key foreign areas, including the principles and motives of strategic partnership. Ukraine’s actions in the global arena are now generally focused on ensuring the country’s defence capability, integrating into the EU and NATO, acquiring security guarantees, gaining support for the country’s reconstruction, etc. In the settings of the ongoing war, there are ambiguous processes of countries’ positioning in relation to russian aggression and determining relevant models of behaviour. In general, the international community can be divided into a coalition of Ukraine’s allies; states in solidarity with our country; «neutral» countries distancing themselves from the war; and supporters of the aggressor. In the meantime, these positions evolve, with more countries becoming in solidarity with Ukraine in its fight for freedom, sovereignty and territorial integrity. The realities of war have affected the nature of Ukraine’s partnership with other nations and necessitated an inventory of the foreign relations system. Therefore, the most important indicators of bilateral relations in terms of priority and strategic nature include support for Ukraine’s resistance to russian invaders and condemnation of the aggressor’s crimes; mutual long-term interests based on the values of democracy and the rule of law; and promotion of Ukraine’s European and EuroAtlantic integration. The war-related processes and trends call for updating the circle of states whose relations with Ukraine are defined as priority and strategic, according to the current Foreign Policy Strategy of Ukraine. Obviously, the respective position of a particular country in this critical period for Ukraine will determine the level and model of bilateral relations in the future. In turn, it seems appropriate to regulate the legal framework for the introduction of strategic partnership tools.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, National Security, Bilateral Relations, Russia-Ukraine War, and Strategic Partnerships
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe
39. Preparing for a Longer War: Is a Ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia possible by 2024?
- Author:
- Stefan Meister, András Rácz, and Judith Heckenthaler
- Publication Date:
- 12-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine has failed and is now a protracted war of attrition. Russia has adapted to this situation and prepared for a longer war. The legitimization of the Putin system is increasingly built around the war. As long as Ukraine has no security guarantees, a ceasefire is not realistic from either side. Therefore, the focus should be on protecting the territory Ukraine controls and defining together with the Western partners how security can be provided and what victory means.
- Topic:
- Security, Vladimir Putin, Ceasefire, Armed Conflict, International Order, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe
40. Ukrainian Organisations' Response to Russia's Full-Scale Invasion
- Author:
- Maryna Slobodyanuk, Lyudmila Cherkez, and Emma Mateo
- Publication Date:
- 11-2023
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- The Harriman Institute
- Abstract:
- Join the Harriman Institute for an event with Ukrainian activists discussing how their organisations have responded to the 2022 escalation of Russia’s war on Ukraine. We will be joined virtually by activists representing two organisations: Truth Hounds, and TAPS Ukraine. Both organisations were in operation prior to 2022, but their work was significantly impacted by the challenges associated with the full-scale invasion. Maryna Slobodyanuk will discuss the work of Truth Hounds, where she is the Head of the Analytical Department. Truth Hounds has been documenting war crimes and other serious human rights violations in Ukraine since 2014. Lyudmila Cherkez will share the work of TAPS Ukraine, where she is head of communication. TAPS Ukraine is based in Dnipro, 100km from the front lines, and has been supporting those affected by military loss since 2018. TAPS Ukraine was also involved in the creation of the Coordinating Headquarters of Dnipro Volunteers, one of the largest volunteer hubs established in Eastern Ukraine following 24 February 2022. This hybrid event is open to the public and you are welcome to join us online or in person. The event will be moderated by Emma Mateo.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Activism, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe