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81. Ensuring Bosnia's Future: A New International Engagement Strategy

Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
International policy in Bosnia is in disarray, and a new engagement strategy is required. The present High Representative, whose performance in 2006 has been much criticised, announced on 23 January 2007 that he would leave by mid-year. The Peace Implementation Council (PIC), to whom he reports and which is responsible for guiding implementation of the Dayton Peace Accords, meets on 27 February to decide the way forward. The most immediate issues to be resolved are whether the Office of the High Representative (OHR), and the robust 'Bonn powers' available to it, should continue in their present form.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Iowa

82. Hegemonic Project or Survival Strategy? Language Rights in the Former Soviet Space

Author:
Kitty Lam
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
The Soviet Union's collapse brought to surface a complex ethno-political situation in the territory it formerly spanned. Changes in interstate boundaries separated various ethnic populations from their perceived homelands. This post-Soviet landscape has created policy dilemmas for the Russian government, as some 25 million Russians found themselves living outside the borders of the Russian Federation. How Russian leaders have dealt with issues pertaining to its 'compatriots' in the non-Russian Soviet successor states has become a subject of interest to Western observers. In particular, Western analysts have been observing the expression of 'ethnic diaspora' issues in Russian foreign policy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Civil Society, Development, and Population
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Eastern Europe, and Asia

83. Kosovo 1999: Clinton, Coercive Diplomacy, and the Use of Analogies in Decision Making

Author:
Sébastien Barthe and Charles-Philippe David
Publication Date:
09-2007
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:
School of Diplomacy and International Relations, Seton Hall University
Abstract:
The purpose of this article is to investigate and assess the role of analogical thinking, and the “Bosnia analogy” in particular, in steering the Clinton administration toward a strategy of coercive diplomacy during the crisis in Kosovo in 1998. It is our thesis that, throughout the decision-making process, key administration figures used a variety of analogies to frame the Kosovo crisis, which prompted advocacy of conflicting policy options. Specifically, activists like Madeleine Albright and Wesley Clark pushed for a full military option to complement diplomatic efforts, evoking the lessons of Bosnia as justification. On the other hand, minimalists like William Cohen and Sandy Berger invoked images of Vietnam and Somalia to keep US involvement to a minimum. Ultimately, it would appear that the Bosnia analogy prevailed, leading the Clinton administration to launch a military campaign limited to high-altitude strategic bombing, as seen in 1995. Building on previous studies of American decision making and military actions in the Kosovo war of 1999, we will expand on the idea that the administration’s determination not to commit US ground troops to combat operations was partially responsible for the unforeseen duration of the war.1 However, our own analysis will suggest that this stance stemmed more from a lag in the decision-making process, caused by an over-reliance on images from Bosnia prior to the military campaign, than from fears of seeing a Vietnam or Somalia repeated in the Balkans. In order to assess the importance of analogies in the decision-making process, both prior to and during NATO’s aerial campaign against Yugoslavia, we will use an analytic model developed by Yuen Foong Khong in his 1992 book, Analogies at War: Korea, Munich, Dien Bien Phu, and the Vietnam Decision of 1965. 2 Khong labels his model of analogical reasoning the “AE framework.” In our opinion it goes a long way towards explaining how analogies operate cognitively and clarify the consequences for decision making. In the first part of this article, we will revisit the AE framework, describe its basic tenets, and describe how analogies typically influence decision making and foreign policy choices. In the second part, we will use the AE framework to discuss how conflicting analogies informed the debates inside the White House between 1998 and early 1999 about what to do in Kosovo. Finally, the third section of this article will argue that the Bosnia analogy empirically “collapsed” when air strikes proved insufficient to stop Milosevic in April and May of 1999. Consequently, the Principals Committee3 had to debate at length the use of ground forces,; an option few had ever favored up to that point. In the end, we assert that this reopening of the discussion played a major role in prolonging the war; and it came to an end when Milosevic understood that the Americans and NATO had effectively decided to expand their offensive on the ground.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, NATO, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Kosovo

84. Variable Geometries: Mapping Ideas, Institutions and Power in the Wider Europe

Author:
Fabrizio Tassinari
Publication Date:
11-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The controversies and ambiguities characterising the EU neighbourhood strategy are ultimately due to the fact that the wider Europe concerns the conceptual, strategic and spatial limits of Europe. It is in this wider Europe that the EU as process meets the EU as actor. It is here that its 'gravitational power' meets its 'normative power'. It is here that the sui-generis EU governance system meets its foreign policy capabilities.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe and Eastern Europe

85. The ‘Europeanisation’ of National Foreign, Security and Defence Policy

Author:
Plamen Pantev
Publication Date:
11-2005
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:
This Research Report focuses on the issue of the interpretation of the meaning of the term ‘Europeanisation’. It is followed by a discussion of two constraining factors of Europeanising the foreign, security and defence policy. Lastly, it deals with the interrelationship of ‘security’ and ‘regional integration’ – an issue that is generally disregarded by analysts and politicians, but that can lead to a methodological miss-match, creating obstacles to the course of a less contradictory Europeanisation of the foreign, security and defence policy of the EU.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, European Union, and Europeanization
Political Geography:
Europe and Eastern Europe

86. European Recalcitrance toward Turkey: An Agenda for U.S.-Turkish Ties in Summer 2005

Author:
Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Today, the European Commission, the executive arm of the European Union (EU), issued its Framework for Negotiations with Turkey, a document outlining a strategy for accession talks with Ankara. In December 2004, the EU indicated that Ankara had satisfied its membership criteria “sufficiently enough” to begin talks on October 3, 2005. Yet, the Framework states that the negotiations with Turkey will be “an open-ended process, the outcome of which cannot be guaranteed”—this despite the fact that all previous accession talks with candidate countries resulted in membership offers. With Europe having difficulty keeping its promises to Turkey and, accordingly, Turkish euphoria for the EU winding down, Washington stands at a strategic juncture in its relationship with Ankara.
Topic:
International Relations and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Washington, Turkey, and Eastern Europe

87. The EU Consented to Negotiations, but will it Allow Turkey in?

Author:
Murat Metin Hakki
Publication Date:
03-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia International Affairs Online
Abstract:
The Europeans fought the Turks and tried to drive them away from Europe for about 16 centuries, starting in around 452 C.E. when Attila, the Emperor of Huns, sieged Rome. They almost achieved that goal with the 1912-13 Balkan War. However, the circumstances brought the Turks to the gates of Brussels almost 90 years later, this time as a candidate for the EU membership. The most advanced stage Turkey reached in the process of accession came with the EU's decision to start negotiations on October 3, 2005. The success of the AKP Government should be acknowledged with that respect. They reached a point no Turkish cabinet had reached until now. However, it is obvious that the repercussions of the December 17, 2004 decision should not be overestimated.
Topic:
International Relations and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
Turkey, Eastern Europe, and Rome

88. CERI: Russian Foreign Policy Discourse during the Kosovo Crisis: Internal Struggles and the Political Imaginaire

Author:
Guillaume Colin
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales (CERI)
Abstract:
The Kosovo crisis gave rise to a domestic political crisis in Russia. The NATO bombings called into question the efficiency of Russian foreign policy, which was against them, challenging the worldview that the government conveyed, thereby reinforcing the communist anti-establishment vision. The present article, by analysing the press conferences given by both the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Communist Party, argues that each of the two narratives aimed to construct and impose (or defend) its own worldview and dividing principles of the world. In both narratives, this struggle was backed up using very strong political identity myths—namely Russia's relation to the West and the memory of the Second World War—that are referred to in opposite ways. The Kosovo example allows us to highlight the stakes and themes that work their way into Russian foreign policy discourse and contribute to exploiting foreign policy issues in Russian domestic political debate, and also cast light on the distorting effects caused by this instrumentalization.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and NATO
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia, and Kosovo

89. Foreign Policy-Making in the Clinton Administration: Reassessing Bosnia and the "Turning Point" of 1995

Author:
Séastien Barthe and Charles-Philippe David
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Raoul Dandurand Chair of Strategic and Diplomatic Studies, Université du Québec à Montréal
Abstract:
The conflict that ravaged Bosnia-Herzegovina from 1992 to 1995 was one of the central international problems that the Clinton White House had to face during its first term. The “issue from hell”, as Warren Christopher famously dubbed it in 19933, was emblematic of the Clinton administration's failure, during the period of January 1993 to late summer 1995, to formulate foreign policies that could produce the results desired by the policy-makers in the West Wing.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Development
Political Geography:
United States, Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe

90. "Foreign Policy Is Not What I Came Here to Do" Dissecting Clinton's Foreign Policy-Making: A First Cut

Author:
Séastien Barthe and Charles-Philippe David
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Raoul Dandurand Chair of Strategic and Diplomatic Studies, Université du Québec à Montréal
Abstract:
Some presidents fit a pattern. But though Clinton does bear comparison with some of his predecessors, he combines elements of several types and defies (for now) definitive categorization.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Development
Political Geography:
United States and Eastern Europe