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1. Structural Shifts and Regional Security: A View from Israel

Author:
Ehud Eiran
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Israel is still holding to its traditional security maxim. Based on a perception of a hostile region, Israel’s response includes early warning, deterrence and swift – including pre-emptive – military action, coupled with an alliance with a global power, the US. Israel is adjusting these maxims to a changing reality. Overlapping interests – and perhaps the prospect of an even more open conflict with Iran – led to limited relationships between Israel and some Gulf states. These, however, will be constrained until Israel makes progress on the Palestine issue. Israel aligned with Greece and Cyprus around energy and security, which may lead to conflict with Turkey. Russia’s deployment in Syria placed new constraints on Israeli freedom of action there. The US’s retrenchment from the Middle East is not having a direct effect on Israel, while the Trump administration’s support for Israel’s territorial designs in the West Bank may make it easier for Israel to permanently expand there, thus sowing the seeds for future instability in Israel/Palestine. The EU could try and balance against such developments, but, as seen from Israel, is too divided to have a significant impact. Paper produced in the framework of the FEPS-IAI project “Fostering a New Security Architecture in the Middle East”, April 2020.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Gas, and Hezbollah
Political Geography:
Russia, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Greece, Palestine, Saudi Arabia, Cyprus, United States of America, and Mediterranean

2. Time Is Running out in the Northern Part of Cyprus

Author:
Nikolaos Stelgias
Publication Date:
03-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The collapse of the talks in Crans-Montana caused significant concerns to the Turkish Cypriots that believe in the Federal solution of the Cyprus issue. These segments of the community, which hope that the establishment of a united federal Cyprus will lead to the resolution of all their socio-political and economic problems are searching for a political framework through which they will channel their dissatisfaction and their aspirations. At the same time, the Turkish Cypriot community, being cut off from the international scene, depends solely on Turkey and the Anatolian economy which is currently facing systemic problems. Within this context, the Turkish Cypriots understand that the need for the social, political and economic reconstruction of “TRNC” is urgent.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Politics, and Negotiation
Political Geography:
Europe, Cyprus, and Mediterranean

3. Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy: Spring 2016

Author:
Kristin A. Wagner, Satgin Hamrah, Benjamen Franklen Gussen, Robert Mason, Robert Maguire, Adi Saleem Bharat, Lauren Fisher, Joseph Sadek, Dalia Ghanem-Yazbek, and Serhat S. Çubukçuoğlu
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
Our Spring 2016 volume encapsulates the dangerous developments in MENA over the course of the past year. While the international community hoped for a resolution to the five-year Syrian Civil War, the conflict has further divided the region into a sectarian split, pitting Shia Iran and the Sunni gulf states on opposing sides. Additionally, Russia’s brief military intervention, finally winding down as of March 2016, has further destabilized the country and significantly increased the flow of refugees into the heartland of Europe. With the November 2015 Paris attacks, the threat of the so-called Islamic State (Daesh) to the west was finally realized, calling into question ongoing efforts to counter violent extremism, as well as to resolve the Syrian Civil War. Meanwhile, Turkey’s increasing two-front war against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and Daesh has resulted in a series of deadly terrorist attacks throughout the country, putting further pressure on Turkish leadership to both find a solution to the Kurdish question and stem the refugee flow transiting northward from Syria. It is through this lens that the Spring 2016 edition has been crafted. With conflict and instability abound, we present first an exclusive interview with Speaker of the Iraqi Parliament Salim al-Jabouri. On a more positive note, JMEPP also interviewed Tunisia’s Minister of Economic Infrastructure and Sustainable Development, Hedi Larbi, on Tunisia’s relative stability and success in its post-Jasmine Revolution transition. This year’s featured articles include Robert Mason’s assessment of the Saudi leadership and the perilous position it now finds itself in, both geopolitically and domestically; and Serhat S. Çubukçuoğlu’s eyes on Turkey’s natural gas ambitions as being linked to settling the Cypriot peace talks, as well as re-establishing partnerships with its regional neighbors in the eastern Mediterranean. Benjamen Franklen Gussen creates a new picture of a geographically reoriented Middle East, while Dylan MaGuire analyzes the no-fly zone option in Syria, with a look back to previous operations in Iraq and Libya. Focusing on gender, Dr. Dalia Ghanem-Yazbeck looks at integration and inclusion of women in Algeria’s military, yet presents a critique on its superficiality. With an eye on Turkey’s destabilized southern border region, Joseph Sadek provides commentary on the political and geostrategic jostling between Turkey and its Kurdish population, as well as the complex relationships between Turkey, the PKK, and Syrian People’s Protection Units (YPG) rebels. Turning to terrorism, Lauren Fisher presents an argument against the stovepipe methodology of countering violent extremism by exploring the complexities behind the topic. Finally, we conclude with a literature review by Adi Saleem Bharat on the Boycott, Divest, Sanction (BDS) movement as it pertains to academia.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Security, Development, Gender Issues, Peace Studies, Infrastructure, Armed Forces, Violent Extremism, Women, Radicalization, Islamic State, Political stability, Arab Spring, Humanitarian Intervention, Syrian War, Negotiation, Kurds, and BDS
Political Geography:
Iraq, Israel, Libya, Palestine, Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, and Cyprus

4. Christella Yakinthou, Political Settlements in Divided Societies – Consociationalism and Cyprus

Author:
Siret Hürsoy
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Insight Turkey
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
There is a growing literature on what political settlements are to be adopted in deeply divided (or post-conflict) societies and in protracted intra-state conflicts.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
Cyprus

5. Cyprus: Reversing the Drift to Partition

Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
One more major effort, strongly encouraged by the UN and European Union (EU), should be made in 2008 to resolve the long-running dispute between ethnic Greeks and Turks on Cyprus and achieve a comprehensive settlement to reunify the island. All sides have much to gain from such a settlement. For the Greek Cypriots, it would end lingering insecurity, give them access to the Turkish economy, the most dynamic in the region, and increase their service industry's value as an eastern Mediterranean hub. For Turkish Cypriots, it will mean being able to enjoy the benefits of EU citizenship of which they are presently largely deprived. For the EU, the unresolved Cyprus problem now hampers its functioning on issues as diverse as cooperation with NATO in Afghanistan and Chinese shoe imports. And for Turkey a settlement would overcome a major obstacle to its convergence with the EU.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Security
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Cyprus

6. NATO, Iraq, and the Greater Middle East: Implications for the U.S.-Turkish Relationship

Author:
Egemen Bagis
Publication Date:
05-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
For years, the Turkish Cypriots have been blamed for the Cyprus issue. Nevertheless, Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan personally convinced UN secretary general Kofi Annan to open the fourth round of negotiations, and Rauf Denktas, president of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, was much more productive in these talks than was the Greek Cypriot leader. The conclusions emerging from the Annan Plan negotiations were the best obtainable result, even though they did not address all Turkish priorities. According to the plan, the Greek and Turkish Cypriots each submitted the plan's proposals to a separate referendum. Yet, only the Turkish Cypriot leadership stood behind its word and asked for a "yes" vote. With this, the Turkish Cypriots sent the message that they were ready to integrate into the international community. Unfortunately, the Greek Cypriot leadership backed off of its support for the agreement, and the Greek Cypriots consequently rejected the plan in their referendum. The European Union (EU) had promised Greek Cypriot accession regardless of their referendum result, however, and on May 1, Greek Cyprus entered the EU while the Turkish side remains unfairly punished by international sanctions. The destiny of the Turkish Cypriots should not rest in the hands of the Greek Cypriots, and the world has begun to recognize this. Now, lifting the sanctions on the Turkish Cyprus is Turkey's priority.
Topic:
Security, NATO, and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Cyprus

7. Bigger EU, Wider CFSP, Stronger ESDP?

Author:
Antonio Missiroli
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
Last spring, the research team of the then WEU Institute for Security Studies came up with the idea of carrying out a targeted screening of the prevailing (and evolving) views on CFSP and ESDP in the candidate countries. In order to preserve some homogeneity and comparability, the screening would be limited to the ten Central European applicants. In fact, the Mediterranean candidates (Cyprus and Malta, let alone Turkey) pose completely different problems, while the whole exercise was intended to try and assess what CFSP/ESDP means to the part of Europe that was 'kidnapped' for almost half a century – according to Milan Kundera's well-known metaphor from the 1980s – and is now about to 'return' where it belongs. In a way, however, the project was also intended to try and assess what such a 'return' might mean for CFSP/ESDP, and how the two processes would interact and dovetail.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Cyprus

8. A Turning Point for Turkey

Author:
Aleksandar D. Jovovic
Publication Date:
09-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
Abstract:
The Institute for the Study of Diplomacy hosted the fall 2001 meetings of the Schlesinger Working Group on the topic of Turkey. Our selection of Turkey is a reflection of the daunting choices and challenges that face this country, as well as its inherent importance. Turkey is at a crossroads not only due to its strategic geographic location, but also because of the key internal economic, social and political problems it must resolve. It faces difficult dilemmas on the question of Cyprus, its relations with Greece, and its cooperation with Israel. It has been forced to accept open-ended delays on EU membership, and it may have to yield some influence on the issue of European defense. Turkey walks a fine line between firm support for the Iraqi containment scheme and tacit admission of its dependence on the resulting smuggling business. On the home front, its tendency to ban pro-Islamist parties and its treatment of the Kurdish question may be unsustainable, while serious structural problems and rigidities in the economic system threaten to derail the impressive economic gains of past decades. And finally, the political system itself, rife with corruption and sustained by a bloated bureaucracy and entrenched party politics, is under growing strain.
Topic:
Security, NATO, and Religion
Political Geography:
Iraq, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Asia, and Cyprus

9. Special Policy Forum Report -- Managing U.S.-Turkish Relations

Author:
Mark Parris
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Turkey is important . . . The new administration, based on what it has said and done since January, understands this." "One reason [for Turkey's importance], of course, is its location and the issues that come with that geography-big issues; issues that have literally made or broken past administrations' foreign policies: Russia; the Caucasus and Central Asia; Iran; Iraq; post-Asad Syria; Israel and the Arab world; Cyprus and the Aegean; the Balkans; the European Security and Defense Initiative (ESDI); drugs, thugs, and terror. I would submit that no administration can achieve its objectives on any of these issues unless the Turks are on the same page.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Turkey, Caucasus, Middle East, Israel, Arab Countries, Syria, and Cyprus