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2851. Is China "Exporting Deflation"?

Author:
Steven B. Kamin, Mario Marazzi, and John W. Schindler
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
In the past few years, observers increasingly have pointed to China as a source of downward pressure on global prices. This paper evaluates the theoretical and empirical evidence bearing on the question of whether China's buoyant export growth has led to significant changes in the inflation performance of its trading partners. This evidence suggests that the impact of Chinese exports on global prices has been, while non-negligible, fairly modest. On a priori grounds, our theoretical analysis suggests that China's economy is still too small relative to the world economy to have much effect on global inflation: a back-of-the-envelope calculation puts that effect at about 1/3 percentage point in recent years. In terms of the empirical evidence, we identify a statistically significant effect of U.S. imports from China on U.S. import prices, but given the size of this effect and the relatively low share of imports in U.S. GDP, the ultimate impact on the U.S. consumer prices has likely been quite small. Moreover, imports from China had little apparent effect on U.S. producer prices. Finally, using a multi-country database of trade transactions, we estimate that since 1993, Chinese exports lowered annual import inflation in a large set of economies by 1/4 percentage point or less on average, similar to the prediction of our theoretical model.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Asia

2852. China's Route to a Green and Prosperous Future

Author:
Roger Bate
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
By opening its economy to greater domestic and foreign investment in the technologies needed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, China can dramatically improve its environmental record while becoming richer. The same promise holds for other developing countries as well.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Democratization, and Economics
Political Geography:
China

2853. China Should Trust in Capital Markets

Author:
R. Glenn Hubbard and William Dudley
Publication Date:
11-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
A critical factor in China's long-term economic growth is the development of its capital markets, which if properly organized could foster greater productivity, increased wages, and employment growth.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Democratization, and Economics
Political Geography:
China

2854. Taiwan: Test Case of the Bush Doctrine

Author:
Thomas Donnelly
Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
While the Bush administration has articulated an ambitious agenda for the liberalization of the greater Middle East, fighting to establish beachheads of freedom in Afghanistan and Iraq as well as pressuring regimes in the region to adopt domestic reforms, it has thus far proven somewhat reluctant to embrace this commitment to liberty in other parts of the world. Nowhere has this retreat from its rhetoric been more pointed than in Taiwan, a flourishing free-market democracy menaced by an authoritarian colossus next door. Taiwan's March 20 election provides fresh evidence of the extent to which the "one China" policy and "strategic ambiguity"—those avatars of conventional wisdom—have passed into the realm of anachronism. Indeed, if the Bush Doctrine represents anything, it is the conviction that there must be nothing ambiguous about America's support for the forces of freedom.
Topic:
Security and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, China, Iraq, Middle East, and Taiwan

2855. The Economic aspects of security in South Eastern Europe

Author:
Mladen Stanisis
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Austrian National Defence Academy
Abstract:
In the process of constructing a safety structure in the South Eastern Europe one must bear in mind the assumptions on which the new global safety structure is based, and those are: 1. Europe, and the surrounding area of the region, is becoming more stable and peaceful, and there are no indications that there will be any armed conflicts between states in the near future. 2. The situation of volatility and insecurity is spreading globally due to unconventional threats, like international terrorism, weapons of mass destruction, drug-trafficking, illegal immigration etc. 3. The EU, as an institution of international integration, and NATO, as an international organisation, are starting to see eye to eye and are co-ordinating their activities on the basis of compatible civilisation values against the stated threats and in attempt to further economic development of the EU. 4. The role and the importance of multilateral organisations are diminishing. The emphasis is being put on the importance of bilateral relations, especially by the last superpower, the USA, whose policy of unilateralism will surely dominate international relations for some time to come. 5. Other stakeholders in the domain of international relations, with the potential to become partners of the USA in the process of reaffirming multilateral relations. The EU, the People's Republic of China, the Russian Federation and the UN have just begun adapting to new relations and there are no indications that the position of the USA as the leading world power would be contested. 6. The globalisation process dominates all aspects of international relations on the basis of scientific and technological revolution, as well as revolution in the communication of information. It will be a consistent mechanism of transferring the model of liberal democracy internationally.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Defense Policy, and NATO
Political Geography:
United States, China, Europe, and Central Asia

2856. Could Humphrey Have Gone to China? Measuring the Electoral Costs and Benefits of Making Peace

Author:
Kenneth Schultz
Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
Abstract:
Theoretical arguments for why “it takes a Nixon to go to China” emphasize either the superior credibility that hawks have in advocating peace or the superior political benefits they enjoy in doing so. This paper looks for evidence of these effects in the canonical case: that of U.S. rapprochement with China in the early 1970s. I use counterfactual simulations on data from the 1968 National Election Study to explore the political effects of a proposal to open relations with China, focusing on whether and how those effects would depend on who made the proposal: Richard Nixon or Hubert Humphrey. I find evidence of both the credibility and electoral security effects hypothesized in the theoretical literature. In particular, there is a very dramatic asymmetry in the political costs and benefits of proposing peace: while such a proposal would have been electorally costly for Humphrey, it could have been an electoral boon for Nixon.
Topic:
International Relations and Government
Political Geography:
United States, China, Asia, and North America

2857. China and State/Space: Scale Relations and the City in an Era of Globalization

Author:
Carolyn Cartier
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
Abstract:
Since the onset of reform and opening in the People's Republic of China after 1978, decentralization of state power has arguably been the most consequential transformation of the Chinese political economy, underpinning the dynamics of economic growth and state-society relations. The growth of the number and size of cities and the urban population—urbanization—are the outstanding geographical manifestations of these processes. How should we analyze the relationships between them? This chapter introduces scale relations as a basis for assessing the decentralization of state power and urbanization, and to demonstrate the 'rescaling' of the Chinese state in an era of globalization as spatial processes and their manifestation at the urban scale.
Topic:
Globalization and Government
Political Geography:
China and Asia

2858. CERI: Political Opposition, Nationalism and Islam among the Uygurs in Xinjiang Abstract

Author:
Rémi Castets
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
With a substantial Uyghur population, Xinjiang (East Turkistan) is, after Uzbekistan, the second largest Muslim Turkic-speaking area of settlement area in Central Asia. Annexed by China fairly late, this territory has a tumultuous history punctuated by foreign interference and separatist insurrections. Through strict control of the regional political system and a massive influx of Han settlers, the communist regime has managed to integrate this strategic region and its large oil deposits into the rest of China.
Topic:
Nationalism, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
China, Central Asia, Asia, and Uzbekistan

2859. CERI: Regional integration in Asia since China's entry into the WTO

Author:
Diana Hochraich
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
Since their economic development got under way, the ASEAN countries - which essentially manufacture labour-intensive products - have been marked by strong regional integration brought about by the segmentation of the production process engaged in by Japanese companies. In these countries, successive relocations resulted in de facto economic integration at a time when various political groupings intent on blocking the development of communism were also emerging. Since joining the WTO, China - the world's workshop - has become the hub for trade with the developed countries. In the face of such competition, the ASEAN countries will have to show their capacity to maintain their position in the value chain represented by the production of all of the Asian countries.
Topic:
Economics and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
China and Asia

2860. CERI: The socio-political effects of forced migrations linked tomajor hydraulic projects in China. The example of the Three Gorges dam.

Author:
Florence Padovani
Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
The study of the population movements caused by the major Chinese hydraulic projects reveals the true extent of the change which has come about in relations between the State and society in China. The construction of the Three Gorges dam-which led to considerable controversy both within China and beyond - is a prime case in point.
Topic:
Civil Society, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
China and Asia