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311. China's Nexus of Foreign Trade and Economic Growth: Making Sense of the Anomaly

Author:
Dic Lo
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
Using a range of specifications that are standard in the relevant literature, this paper finds that China's rapid and sustained economic growth in the reform era has tended to be negatively correlated with its export growth and positively correlated with its import growth. This finding runs counter to widely -held perceptions on China's nexus of foreign trade and economic growth, and thus presents a serious challenge for interpretation. On the basis of some further regression analyses, and drawing on a number of applied studies on the subject matter, the paper argues that the finding is plausible and of complex ramifications. The conclusion which this paper arrives at, therefore, is that the Chinese experience has tended to be a case of strategic integration into the world market, rather than conforming to the standard neoclassical thesis of trade regime neutrality.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Economics, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
China

312. Assessing the Role of Foreign Direct Investment in China's Economic Development: Macro Indicators and Insights from Sectoral-Regional Analyses'

Author:
Dic Lo
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
The objective of this paper is to assess the role of FDI in China's economic development with reference to the broader literature on FDI and late development. Three main findings come out from the analyses in the paper. First, it is found that FDI tends to promote the improvement in allocative efficiency, while having a negative impact on productive efficiency. Second, insofar as FDI does promote overall productivity growth, this tends to be a matter of cumulative causation rather than one of single-direction causation. Third, in the context of a comparative analysis of two distinctive regional models, it is found that the economic impact of FDI tends to be more favourable in the inward-looking, capital-deepening pattern of development (the 'Shanghai model') than that in the export-oriented, labour-intensive pattern (the 'Guangdong model'). Further analyses, however, suggest that the 'Shanghai model' has its intrinsic problems of sustainability. The scope for applying it to China as a whole is thus judged to be limited.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
China and Shanghai

313. China's Route to a Green and Prosperous Future

Author:
Roger Bate
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
By opening its economy to greater domestic and foreign investment in the technologies needed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, China can dramatically improve its environmental record while becoming richer. The same promise holds for other developing countries as well.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Democratization, and Economics
Political Geography:
China

314. China Should Trust in Capital Markets

Author:
R. Glenn Hubbard and William Dudley
Publication Date:
11-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
A critical factor in China's long-term economic growth is the development of its capital markets, which if properly organized could foster greater productivity, increased wages, and employment growth.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Democratization, and Economics
Political Geography:
China

315. The Economic aspects of security in South Eastern Europe

Author:
Mladen Stanisis
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Austrian National Defence Academy
Abstract:
In the process of constructing a safety structure in the South Eastern Europe one must bear in mind the assumptions on which the new global safety structure is based, and those are: 1. Europe, and the surrounding area of the region, is becoming more stable and peaceful, and there are no indications that there will be any armed conflicts between states in the near future. 2. The situation of volatility and insecurity is spreading globally due to unconventional threats, like international terrorism, weapons of mass destruction, drug-trafficking, illegal immigration etc. 3. The EU, as an institution of international integration, and NATO, as an international organisation, are starting to see eye to eye and are co-ordinating their activities on the basis of compatible civilisation values against the stated threats and in attempt to further economic development of the EU. 4. The role and the importance of multilateral organisations are diminishing. The emphasis is being put on the importance of bilateral relations, especially by the last superpower, the USA, whose policy of unilateralism will surely dominate international relations for some time to come. 5. Other stakeholders in the domain of international relations, with the potential to become partners of the USA in the process of reaffirming multilateral relations. The EU, the People's Republic of China, the Russian Federation and the UN have just begun adapting to new relations and there are no indications that the position of the USA as the leading world power would be contested. 6. The globalisation process dominates all aspects of international relations on the basis of scientific and technological revolution, as well as revolution in the communication of information. It will be a consistent mechanism of transferring the model of liberal democracy internationally.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Defense Policy, and NATO
Political Geography:
United States, China, Europe, and Central Asia

316. Could Humphrey Have Gone to China? Measuring the Electoral Costs and Benefits of Making Peace

Author:
Kenneth Schultz
Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
Abstract:
Theoretical arguments for why “it takes a Nixon to go to China” emphasize either the superior credibility that hawks have in advocating peace or the superior political benefits they enjoy in doing so. This paper looks for evidence of these effects in the canonical case: that of U.S. rapprochement with China in the early 1970s. I use counterfactual simulations on data from the 1968 National Election Study to explore the political effects of a proposal to open relations with China, focusing on whether and how those effects would depend on who made the proposal: Richard Nixon or Hubert Humphrey. I find evidence of both the credibility and electoral security effects hypothesized in the theoretical literature. In particular, there is a very dramatic asymmetry in the political costs and benefits of proposing peace: while such a proposal would have been electorally costly for Humphrey, it could have been an electoral boon for Nixon.
Topic:
International Relations and Government
Political Geography:
United States, China, Asia, and North America

317. The Beijing 2008 Olympic Games: China in the limelight

Author:
John Bowan
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Beijing's successful bid for the 2008 Olympic Games gives China a unique opportunity to signal its emergence as a leading player in the mainstream of international affairs. The Games will provide a unique opportunity to showcase to the international public, as well as to foreign governments and international business, China's technical and organisational capabilities, its cultural and social achievements, and its standing and potential as a global economic power and partner. The ongoing strong commitment to the Games by the national Government, and the rapid and efficient progress made to date by the Beijing Olympic organisers, are impressive; from a technical point of view, China's challenging Olympic project is on track. The Games will make some limited contribution to the extraordinary economic and technological development China is making, particularly in environmental protection. Similarly, the Games have the potential to make some incremental contribution to improving human rights in China. Their significance as a force for change in this area should not be overestimated, however, and the evidence is that the Olympic influence on China's human rights has so far been limited. Despite the good cooperation at the Olympic level that has developed between China and Taiwan in recent years, the hosting of the Games would not stand in the way of drastic action by China if Taiwan pursued independence beyond the limits of its tolerance. Australia's cooperative Olympic links with China, developed during Beijing's bid, add a valuable dimension to the strong and important relationship between the two countries.
Topic:
International Relations, Civil Society, and Development
Political Geography:
China and Asia

318. Doubling the Global Work Force: The Challenge of Integrating China, India, and the Former Soviet Bloc into the World Economy

Author:
Richard B. Freeman
Publication Date:
11-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
In 1985, the global economic world (N. America, S. America, Western Europe, Japan, Asian Tigers, Africa) consisted of 2.5 billion people. In 2000 as a result of the collapse of communism, India's turn from autarky, China's shift to market capitalism, global economy encompassed 6 billion people. Had China, India, and the former Soviet empire stayed outside, global economy would have had 3.3 billion.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Africa, Japan, China, America, India, Asia, and Western Europe

319. Does China Matter? The Global Economic Issues

Author:
Stuart Harris
Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Australian National University Department of International Relations
Abstract:
In 1999, Gerry Segal, then Director of Research at the International Institute of Strategic Studies, wrote an article in Foreign Affairs entitled 'Does China matter?'. His article ranged across economic, political and strategic issues but his overall conclusion was that China's importance had been greatly exaggerated. As far as economic questions were concerned, Segal saw China as a small market 'that matters little to the world, especially outside Asia'.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and Globalization
Political Geography:
China and Asia

320. China Brief, Sars: Spreading Unrest

Author:
Willy Lam, William R. Hawkins, Harvey Stockwin, and Li Thian-hok
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
The spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome—the SARS virus—throughout China is a phenomenon that had previously been denied by authorities and had gone unreported. But the penetration of the disease is now being admitted publicly, and efforts to combat it have begun. While the immediate epidemic in Beijing appears to be in decline, the fear remains that the spread of SARS within China will still be difficult—and maybe impossible—to control, let alone to eliminate. World Health Organization (WHO) officials admit that what happens in China will “make or break” the course of the epidemic. China's neighbors, and particularly Hong Kong, worry that a failure to curtail the virus will inevitably result in a fresh round of crossborder infection, further intensifying the already grave economic impact of SARS on the region. At worst, a sustained epidemic could bring China's opening-up to the outside world to a screeching halt.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China, Israel, Beijing, and Hong Kong