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41. Consumption boosts China's resilience but risks of a property bust still loom

Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
With the outlook for exports subdued and investment weak, we expect industrial output growth to slow further in 2012H1. But consumption is taking up the slack and fiscal policy is set to be supportive. As a result, we only expect a relatively modest slowing in growth in 2012 to 8.4% from 9.2% in 2011. But with house prices still falling in December, we remain concerned about the risk of a sharp slowing in the property market leading to strains on local government finances and a hard landing for growth, particularly with the external environment weak. However, central government finances are strong and fiscal transfers could provide a significant cushion in the event of a property bust.
Topic:
Communism, Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance, and Global Recession
Political Geography:
China and Israel

42. Frames We Can Believe In: Official Framing and Ideology in the CCP's Quest for Legitimacy

Author:
Maria Bondes and Sandra Heep
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
In the debate on authoritarian resilience, the importance of persuasion to regime legitimacy has been widely acknowledged, yet a conceptual framework explaining the role of persuasion is still lacking. Against this backdrop, we argue that the framing perspective (Benford and Snow 2000) provides a useful basis for such a framework. Drawing on Beetham's (1991) model of legitimacy, we contend that the ruling elites in authoritarian regimes propagate official frames in a continuous effort to reproduce the belief of the populace in the elites' leadership qualities and their determination to serve the common interest. In the empirical part of our paper we look at the case of China, where the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has in recent years reemphasized persuasion as a means of reproducing legitimacy. We then apply our theory in an analysis of the conceptual shifts in the CCP's frames and ideology, as propagated under its secretary general, Hu Jintao.
Topic:
Government, Political Theory, and Social Stratification
Political Geography:
China and Israel

43. The Missing Middle in American Politics

Author:
Reihan Salam
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
After Lyndon Johnson's victory over Barry Goldwater in the 1964 U.S. presidential election, the once-mighty Republican Party was reduced to a regional rump. The Democrats won overwhelming majorities in the House and the Senate, which they used to pass Johnson's Great Society legislation. Republicans, meanwhile, were at one another's throats, having endured the most divisive campaign in modern political history. Goldwater had managed to win the Republican presidential nomination over the impassioned opposition of moderate and progressive Republicans, who at the time may well have constituted a majority of the party's members. Moderates blamed Goldwater's right-wing views for the defection of millions of Republican voters.
Topic:
Government
Political Geography:
United States, China, and America

44. Cough It Up

Author:
Jack Chow, Shenglan Tang, and Enis Baris
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Yanzhong Huang (“The Sick Man of Asia,” November/December 2011) paints a troubling picture of a China that has rapidly industrialized yet lags in modernizing its health-care system. Yet in his cogent history of China's health policy, much of which centers on self-reliance, Huang puzzlingly omits China's success in winning nearly $1 billion in recent years from the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria. That the country's health officials have had to resort to tapping a fund ostensibly dedicated to helping the world's poorest countries speaks to their inability to persuade the government to pay for public health with its national coªers. Only when the incongruity of a financial giant getting grants at the expense of impoverished African countries was illuminated did China choose to stop taking Global Fund awards.
Topic:
Government
Political Geography:
Africa, China, and Asia

45. The Foundation of China's Future Stability

Author:
Peter Mattis
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
The recently ended standoff between the villagers of Wukan in Guangdong province and local government officials has refocused attention on China's future stability. The more than 100,000 officially reported incidents of unrest each year gives observers the false impression that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in Beijing barely holds the country together. Pressure may be building, but China's stability is like a champagne bottle. Until the cork pops, the bottle and its contents are stable. The question is how much pressure is building and how much wine is spilt when the cork flies out.
Topic:
Communism, Democratization, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
China

46. Chinese Overseas Investment in the European Union

Author:
Kerry Brown
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The International Spectator
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Chinese overseas investment is a new, and growing phenomenon. In the last decade, there have been exponential increases in how much direct investment is flowing from China, particularly into the resource sector. As the eurozone crisis has deepened since 2008, there has been continuing talk by political and business leaders of investment in Europe being a key target for Chinese companies. And yet, the amounts invested so far come to less than 5 percent of China's global overseas foreign direct investment (FDI) total. In the crucial determinants of Chinese FDI, the EU ranks low. There is therefore a good structural reason why, despite the ambitious talk of the Chinese coming to invest more in vital sectors in the EU, this is not happening at the moment and is not likely to happen until China develops into a middle income, more developed economy.
Topic:
Government
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Europe

47. Beyond the 'Cognitive Iron Curtain'. China's White Paper on Peaceful Development

Author:
Simone Dossi
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The International Spectator
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
China's Peaceful Development joins the growing number of white papers that the Chinese government has published over the past two decades on a variety of issues. The aim of the document is to explain the basic features of China's development strategy to foreign audiences, and for this reason it was released in both Chinese and English.
Topic:
Government
Political Geography:
China

48. Whose money? The tug-of-war over Chinese state enterprise profits

Author:
Mikael Mattlin
Publication Date:
04-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
While China's reform strategy has largely been a success story that has seen living standards rise tremendously, it has also led to widening income gaps, regional disparities, and much wasteful investment. Large income gaps breed social discontent that may turn into political demands. The ruling Communist Party has proved itself adroit at preventing such demands from emerging, by taking timely pre-emptive action in response to people's needs.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Social Stratification
Political Geography:
China

49. Overcoming the Past in Sino-Japanese Relations?

Author:
Mingde Wang and Maaike Okano-Heijmans
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The International Spectator
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Historical disputes and nationalism continue to be issues of concern and controversy in the relationship between Japan and China. In 2005, popular nationalist sentiment culminated in nationwide anti-Japanese movements in China. This led to a crucial shift in the way China and Japan deal with history and popular nationalism. An unprecedented dialogue on war memory was initiated in late 2006, and the Sichuan earthquake relief effort in mid-2008 marked a further departure from earlier patterns. The Chinese government shifted away from conventional historiography that largely fed negative images of Japan. While these developments point to new, cooperative attitudes that aim to contain popular nationalist sentiment in manageable proportions, relations are nevertheless increasingly obscured by other tensions in the bilateral relationship.
Topic:
Government, Nationalism, and War
Political Geography:
Japan and China

50. Assessing the Sino-Indian Water Dispite

Author:
Jonathan Holslag
Publication Date:
05-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:
This paper investigates the threat of a water war between China and India. It argues that Indian suspicion of China has been premature. Beijing has not yet given its approval for major water diversion projects in Tibet, it has taken some limited steps toward easing the concerns of the Indian government and a growing number of Chinese experts have taken an interest in developing institutional frameworks for managing transboundary rivers. However, a definitive settlement or cooperation will be difficult because both countries perceive themselves as the victim of a greedy neighbor. While India complains about China's ravenous exploitation of the Himalayan rivers, it is common in China to accuse India of exaggerating the Chinese threat and being unreasonable in its demands.
Topic:
Government
Political Geography:
China, India, and Beijing