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52. The Function Transformation of Central Banks and Commercial Banks under the Application of Digital Fiat Currency
- Author:
- Song Shuang and Liu Dongmin
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Abstract:
- Since the advent of Bitcoin, digital currency and its underlying distributed ledger technology have been spread and applied rapidly around the world. Traditionally, currency issuance and circulation are based on binary tree structure, with the central bank as the highest node, commercial banks in the middle and the public and enterprises at the bottom. However, in the distributed ledger system, all nodes have similar privileges and can transact with each other directly. Hence, the advocators promote the potential of digital currency to subvert the monetary control of sovereign countries and alter the traditional business of commercial banks with the characteristics of decentralization, trust-free intermediary, non-tampering and encryption security. On the other hand, the dissenters believe that transaction nodes in distributed ledger system will be greatly increased, and hence reducing the professionalism of transaction processing and forfeiting the authenticity of original information, which then becomes difficult to play a significant role in the future economy.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Economy, Banks, Central Bank, Currency, and Bitcoin
- Political Geography:
- China and Global Focus
53. China’s economy seeks bottom amid downward pressure in 2019
- Author:
- Qiyuan Xu
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Abstract:
- Proactive fiscal policy will be employed this year to meet the challenge of downward pressure In 2019, the Chinese economy is expected to seek a bottom as a slowdown is inevitable. It is anticipated that it will stabilize at the end of the year or early next year at a growth rate of around 6.3 percent. With China's economy entering a new era, policymakers should focus more on the quality of growth in addition to maintaining a moderately high growth rate. ...... At the same time, China's economy is facing a lot of downward pressuredomestically. First, confidence in the financial market needs to be restored. In2018, China's financial market was hit many times; its stocks, bonds, fundsand internet finance, for example, were all affected. In addition, at present, thewidening credit spreads and the high degree of liquidity between bankscannot be converted into loans to enterprises and other market entities. Facedwith rising market risks and faltering consumer confidence, investors preferlow-risk or risk-free asset allocations.
- Topic:
- Markets, Financial Markets, Economy, and Fiscal Policy
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
54. Supply-side reform leads to economic resilience
- Author:
- Qiyuan Xu
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Abstract:
- China's GDP grew 6.6 percent in 2018, according to National Bureau o ftatistics data. Despite the slight slowdown in the GDP growth rate, however, exports grew at a relatively high 9.9 percent year-on-year calculated in US dollars. And, not surprisingly, China's trade surplus with the United States expanded further. ...... Besides, the relative prosperity index of small and medium-sized enterprises has dropped to the second-lowest point in a decade, and the financial cost differentiation among various industries is growing. This may have a negative impact on not only short-term macroeconomic stability, but also the development space of relevant emerging industries and long-term growth momentum.
- Topic:
- Reform, GDP, Economy, Economic growth, and Resilience
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
55. Perceiving Truth and Ceasing Doubts: What Can We Learn from 40 Years of China’s Reform and Opening up?
- Author:
- Fang Cai
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- China’s reform, opening up and resultant economic growth in the past 40 years haveled to the accumulation of an immense array of experiences, which economists areobligated to look into, analyze and theorize upon. In fact, the rich literature in thisarea has positively assessed and documented China’s successful experiences. However,theories that were established in Western countries have been applied as doctrine tojudge China’s experiences. By adopting an analytical framework unifying historicallogic and theoretical logic, the purpose of this paper is to reveal the unique Chineseexperience and its relevance to the general laws of economic development. Based on theexperiences of and in reference to research findings about China, this paper chroniclesthe process of reform, opening up and economic growth, and analyzes the nexus betweenthem. The study demystifies how the incentive mechanism, the factor accumulation andallocation system, market development, and macro policy environment reforms havespurred China’s economic growth, structural changes and the increase in productivity.The changes in development stage are examined and policy implications for furtherreform are discussed.
- Topic:
- Reform, Economy, Economic growth, and Trade Policy
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
56. Chinese, Japanese, and Korean Inroads into Central Asia: Comparative Analysis of the Economic Cooperation Roadmaps for Uzbekistan
- Author:
- Timur Dadabaev
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- China, Japan, and South Korea have regarded Central Asia as a new Asian frontier in their foreign policies since the collapse of the Soviet Union. With time, their policies evolved into regionbuilding initiatives exemplified by the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Belt and Road Initiative, Central Asia plus Japan Dialogue Forum, and Korea-Central Asia Cooperation Forum. This paper raises the following research questions: What are the areas of interest for China, Japan, and Korea in their relations with Central Asian states and Uzbekistan in particular? What are the patterns of agenda setting in establishing intergovernmental cooperation? What are the particular projects that these states initiate? What are the objectives of projects initiated within these areas of interest? How competitive or complementary are these projects of China, Japan, and Korea? Throughout, Chinese, Japanese, and Korean “Silk Road” roadmaps with Uzbekistan are discussed to highlight their similarities and differences.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Economy, and Economic Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, Central Asia, Asia, South Korea, and Uzbekistan
57. Domestic Politics Force India's Withdrawal from RCEP and Broader Trade Disengagement
- Author:
- Amitendu Palit
- Publication Date:
- 11-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) negotiations concluded at the ASEAN Summit in Bangkok on November 4, 2019. Fifteen RCEP members, including the ten-ASEAN countries, and Australia, China, Japan, Korea and New Zealand, agreed to commence preparation of the legal text of the agreement for signing in 2020. India was the only member to opt out, citing significant unresolved outstanding issues. India’s decision was surprising as it actively participated in the negotiations that lasted for 29 rounds and went on for more than six years since beginning in 2013. Domestic pressures forced Prime Minister Modi to withdraw India from RCEP at the last minute. It also points to disengagement becoming the prominent character of India’s trade policy as domestic protectionist interests successfully undermine outward-oriented economic visions.
- Topic:
- Politics, Treaties and Agreements, Economy, Trade, and ASEAN
- Political Geography:
- China, India, and Asia
58. Rebuilding a Bipartisan Consensus on Trade Policy
- Author:
- Phil Levy
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Chicago Council on Global Affairs
- Abstract:
- Once upon a time, there was centrist, bipartisan support for US leadership in crafting an open global trading system. Over recent decades, though, as trade grew more complex, the share of US workers in manufacturing fell, and China emerged as an economic power, that consensus dissolved. By the 2016 election, both major party presidential candidates opposed the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a trade agreement central to US economic and foreign policy. Lest this opposition seem to represent a new consensus, it ushered in the recent period of political discord over trade. While some praised aggressive US actions to address trade deficits and national security concerns, others worried about the fraying of the global trading system and international markets lost to retaliatory barriers. This book provides the non-specialist reader with the background to understand the debates about trade. It begins by briefly tracing the history of US support for trade, as well as the shifts in the manufacturing sector that helped inspire calls to “make America great again.” It also considers the particular challenges posed by China’s emergence as a trading power while calling into question popular thinking on the resultant “China Shock” to US manufacturing. The book also offers an accessible guide to many of the esoteric topics that underlie today’s trade debates. It starts with tariffs, but proceeds to tackle issues such as trade deficits, intellectual property rights protection, rules of origin for goods, antidumping procedures, labor and environmental protections, and sovereignty. Finally, the book offers ways to move beyond the impasse that had emerged by 2016. Rather than focusing on a specific agreement such as the updated NAFTA (USMCA), it looks at whether deals should be bilateral or multilateral, and just how transparent negotiations need to be. It divides some particularly contentious issues into those that are easily addressed, those that might be feasible with work, and those that are nonstarters. While most of the work to restore a consensus would be difficult, the rewards would be great. The book concludes with a warning that the penalties for not restoring US leadership on trade could be severe.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Economy, Trade Policy, and Political Parties
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
59. Meeting the challenge of secondary sanctions
- Author:
- Ellie Geranmayeh and Manuel Lafont Rapnouil
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council On Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Secondary sanctions have become a critical challenge for Europe, due to the Trump administration’s maximalist policy on Iran and its aggressive economic statecraft. Europe’s vulnerabilities mostly result from asymmetric interdependence with the US economy, due to the size of US markets and the global role of the US dollar. In future, states will likely weaponise economic interdependence with the EU to target countries that are more important to the European economy than Iran, such as China and Russia. European countries should demonstrate that, despite their economic interdependence with the US, they control EU foreign policy. The EU and its member states should strengthen their sanctions policy, begin to build up their deterrence and resilience against secondary sanctions, and prepare to adopt asymmetric countermeasures against any country that harms European interests through secondary sanctions. They should also attempt to bolster the global role of the euro and lead a robust international dialogue on the role of sanctions.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Sanctions, European Union, Economy, and Donald Trump
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, Iran, North America, and United States of America
60. Harnessing artificial intelligence
- Author:
- Ulrike Franke
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council On Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Artificial intelligence is impossible to disregard – it is set to transform society, the economy, and politics. Europe has not yet taken all the steps it needs to benefit from these advances or to protect itself from AI’s potentially dangerous aspects. The US, China, and Russia are alert to AI’s power to change modern warfare: they grasp the geopolitics of AI and may pursue techno-nationalist agendas in recognition of this. Europe can develop sovereignty in AI by beefing up the talent, data, and hardware it draws on; and as a “regulatory superpower” it can set standards the rest of the world will have to follow. If Europe does not address these difficult questions soon it will find itself surrounded by more powerful rivals deploying AI against it.
- Topic:
- Politics, Geopolitics, Economy, and Artificial Intelligence
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, and United States of America