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281. Scramble for Green Technologies: Strategies of Major Players and Serbia’s Opportunities

Author:
Mikhail Korostikov
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:
The struggle between the EU, the US and China for dominance in new technological niche markets has the potential to become the most important story of the next two to three decades, potentially overshadowing any ongoing military conflicts in the world. It is taking place on several fronts at once: artificial intelligence, new principles of industrial production (such as the use of robots or additive technologies), space exploration, and much more. This report explores the political and economic confrontation between the three sides regarding the green technology industry and draws certain conclusions regarding the implications of this confrontation for Serbia. The role of Serbia’s reserves of lithium and other minerals important for the latest high-tech industries could affect the country’s standing in the world in general, and its importance to the EU in particular. However, it is critical to ensure that Serbia maximises the opportunities associated with the exploitation of lithium and concentrates the maximum number of links in the value chain associated with the extraction, processing and utilisation of the valuable resource. It is equally important that the lithium mining process be carried out in accordance with the best environmental standards and, first and foremost, with the support of the environmental authorities of the European Union, potentially being the final beneficiaries of the project.
Topic:
Markets, European Union, Green Technology, Mining, Lithium, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
China, Eastern Europe, Serbia, and United States of America

282. Green Industrial Policy: A Holistic Approach

Author:
Ilaria Mazzocco
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
In the United States, the rise of the economic-climate agenda and green industrial policy has coincided with growing attention to supply chain resilience, economic security, and a deteriorating U.S.-China relationship. As a consequence, the interaction between trade, geopolitics, domestic economic policy, and climate policy demands a new holistic approach from policymakers and civil society to find more politically sustainable and effective policy solutions. More consideration should be given to the specifics of U.S. climate strategy when it comes to trade and international relations and how to integrate climate strategy with the Inflation Reduction Act and green industrial policy efforts.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, Geopolitics, Trade, Sustainability, and Green Economy
Political Geography:
China and Asia

283. China’s Food Security: Key Challenges and Emerging Policy Responses

Author:
Kevin Dong, Mallie Prytherch, Lily McElwee, Patricia M. Kim, Jude Blanchette, and Ryan Hass
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Feeding China’s vast population is a priority issue for Beijing, given historic ramifications of famines and food crises for social and regime stability. Yet the task is vast—China must feed nearly 20 percent of the global population but is home to under 10 percent of the world’s arable land—and the challenges to stable food supply are many. These include inefficient agricultural practices, supply chain bottlenecks, changing consumption habits, international trade dynamics, domestic environmental degradation, corruption and data misrepresentation, and a history of food safety scandals. Diagnosing a more contentious international environment, Xi Jinping has placed greater emphasis on agricultural self-sufficiency and diversified sourcing of critical inputs, foodstuffs, technology and know-how. This brief explores key trends, challenges, and policy measures in China’s pursuit of food security. It is part of a joint CSIS-Brookings Institution project, Advancing Collaboration in an Era of Strategic Competition, which seeks to explore and expand the space for U.S.-China collaboration on matters of shared concern.
Topic:
Agriculture, Food Security, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
China and Asia

284. How China’s Human Capital Impacts Its National Competitiveness

Author:
Briana Boland, Kevin Dong, Jude Blanchette, Ryan Hass, and Erica Ye
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
How will the strengths and weaknesses of China’s human capital impact national competitiveness? China’s efforts to maintain economic growth, strengthen supply chains, develop strategic science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) sectors, and secure a modern military edge hinges on the ability to cultivate and utilize human capital. As the United States and other countries increasingly engage in multidomain competition with China, it is critical to start from a clear-eyed understanding of China’s human capital and Beijing’s strategy for nurturing national talent. Investments in higher education, strategic STEM sectors, and military talent demonstrate key areas in which Beijing is focusing on cultivating human capital. However, China must overcome significant obstacles to innovate as it faces substantial demographic pressures, socio-economic inequalities, and challenges to attracting and retaining top talent both domestically and internationally.
Topic:
Economic Growth, Human Capital, Supply Chains, and Competition
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and United States of America

285. Not Just Boots on the Beach: How China Can Use Deception, Confusion, and Incrementalism to Change the Status Quo on Taiwan

Author:
Jude Blanchette and Hal Brands
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Edited by Jude Blanchette of CSIS and Hal Brands of SAIS, the Marshall Papers is a series of essays that probes and challenges the assessments underpinning the U.S. approach to great power rivalry. The papers will be rigorous yet provocative, continually pushing the boundaries of intellectual and policy debates. In this Marshall Paper, Jude Blanchette and Hal Brands explore four coercive approaches that Beijing could use to change the status quo around Taiwan short of outright invasion or blockade. The paper also highlights the serious challenges Washington and Taipei must address to have a ready response to these scenarios.
Topic:
International Security, Territorial Disputes, Geopolitics, and Rivalry
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, and Asia

286. Driving Change: How EVs Are Reshaping China’s Economic Relationship with Latin America

Author:
Ilaria Mazzocco, Ryan C. Berg, and Rubi Bledsoe
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) are navigating a new geopolitical moment. Some LAC countries are benefitting from increased access to low-cost, high-quality electric vehicles (EVs) and new investment throughout the value chain from China that can help meet governments’ climate and economic objectives. However, this comes with risks, as dependencies on Beijing may be exacerbated at a time when China’s economy is underperforming and geopolitical competition with the United States is on the rise. Washington should find new ways to engage with the region to find solutions that address local demands and simultaneously mitigate U.S. geopolitical risk.
Topic:
Global Markets, Economy, Innovation, and Electric Vehicles
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Latin America

287. Refocusing U.S. Public Diplomacy for a Multipolar World

Author:
Daniel F. Runde and Philip Arceneaux
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
China and Russia leverage technology, social media, and big data as tools to deceptively present information for hostile purposes. The United States must embrace a bold approach to public diplomacy to protect the ideas, values, electoral processes, and all the elements that make a free and open society possible and prevent it from becoming a casualty in the information war.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Data, Multipolarity, Public Diplomacy, and Information Warfare
Political Geography:
Russia, China, and Asia

288. Soviet Lessons for China Watching

Author:
Ford Hart
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Edited by Jude Blanchette of CSIS and Hal Brands of SAIS, the Marshall Papers is a series of essays that probes and challenges the assessments underpinning the U.S. approach to great power rivalry. The papers will be rigorous yet provocative, continually pushing the boundaries of intellectual and policy debates. In this Marshall Paper, Ford Hart argues that Chinese Communist Party (CCP) political institutions, the CCP’s practical behavior, and continued veneration of Marxism-Leninism in the CCP constitution highlight the Soviet model’s deep influence on Beijing. As such, lessons from the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) can help us understand the CCP’s approach to governance today.
Topic:
International Security, Geopolitics, Chinese Communist Party (CCP), and Soviet Union
Political Geography:
China and United States of America

289. China’s Intelligence Footprint in Cuba: New Evidence and Implications for U.S. Security

Author:
Matthew Funaiole, Aidan Powers-Riggs, Brian Hart, Henry Ziemer, Joseph S. Bermudez Jr., Ryan C. Berg, and Christopher Hernandez-Roy
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
China has long been rumored to operate spy facilities in Cuba, but few details about its footprint there have been made public. Research by CSIS reveals four sites within Cuba that are most likely to be supporting China’s efforts to collect intelligence on the United States and its neighbors. Satellite imagery and open-source analysis offer an unprecedented look into these facilities and provide clues as to how they could be used to spy on sensitive communications and activities in the region. These sites have undergone observable upgrades in recent years, even as Cuba has faced increasingly dire economic prospects that have drawn it closer to China. In light of these developments, the United States and its regional partners should carefully monitor China’s growing role in Cuba, harden sensitive communications, and push for transparency to reduce the likelihood of miscalculation.
Topic:
Security, Intelligence, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Cuba

290. China Will Step Up if the US Falls Behind on Climate Action

Author:
Pey Peili and Danielle Lynn Goh
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Even under a second Trump administration, climate targets and negotiations will continue, with China stepping up to lead the global energy transition. Southeast Asia must brace itself for protectionist measures from the United States and China, and increased competition between the two in renewable energy.
Topic:
Climate Change, Renewable Energy, Donald Trump, Protectionism, Competition, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
China and Asia