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271. Autonomía estratégica abierta europea y ciclo electoral: Opciones frente a EEUU y China

Author:
Raquel Carretero, Lisa Garcia Bedolla, Vicente Palacio, Agueda Parra, and Ana Olmedo
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:
La UE debe contar con capacidades propias que le permitan reducir sus dependencias frente a EEUU y China. Pero Europa afronta dificultades e incertidumbres derivadas de factores políticos y económicos internos a Europa y EEUU. Dos grandes procesos electorales en 2024 (elecciones al Parlamento Europeo el 6-9 de junio, y elecciones presidenciales en EEUU el 5 noviembre) tendrán importantes implicaciones para la llamada “autonomía estratégica europea abierta”. Teniendo cuenta este contexto político, este documento aborda varios aspectos. Primero, las dinámicas de continuidad y de cambio del nuevo ciclo político. Segundo, las tendencias actuales de las relaciones UE-EEUU en tres ámbitos principales: tecnológico-digital; política energética y nueva política industrial del Pacto Verde; y defensa y seguridad. Tercero, la necesidad de la UE de resetear y fortalecer las relaciones económicas con Beijing. Cuarto, las posibles opciones de la UE y escenarios respecto a EEUU y China. Finalmente, algunas propuestas para avanzar en la dirección de una relación estratégica más equilibrada y “abierta” respecto a EEUU, China, y el Sur Global.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Elections, European Union, Economy, and Strategic Autonomy
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Europe

272. Local Social Governance in China: Spatial politics and social welfare

Author:
David S. G. Goodman
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
China Studies Centre, The University of Sydney
Abstract:
The policy goal of establishing local social governance in the People’s Republic of China since 2021 highlights two somewhat contradictory tendencies in its spatial politics. One is increased social welfare provision through economic, social and governmental institutions cooperating to create self-sustaining communities. The other is greater city-district and county level local control by the Communist Party of China. Local social governance remains in its infancy with limited policy implementation. The evidence to date though from an examination of the settings for local social governance, its causes, and preliminary implementation does not suggest major changes in the longer-term balance between the Party-state’s undoubted centralist and decentralist tendencies. Moreover, while there may be the desire both to improve social welfare provision, and to extend the reach of the state and the Party, the proposed programme of change faces immense and probably intractable challenges.
Topic:
Governance, Public Policy, and Social Welfare
Political Geography:
China and Asia

273. Understanding Elite Politics Through Relentless Research: Warren Sun’s Hua Guofeng Nianpu, Chronology of Hua Guofeng (1971–1981)

Author:
Frederick C. Teiwes
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
China Studies Centre, The University of Sydney
Abstract:
This Working Paper is a pre-publication review of an immense documentary collection prepared over the past 25 years by Warren Sun, Adjunct Associate Professor at Monash University and Affiliate Member of the Sydney CSC. It is based on the intellectual premise that elite politics in the CCP cannot be understood without deep penetration into the details of political decision-making and conflict. In its absence, simplistic narratives emerge and become widely accepted, especially when the Party itself is creating the basis for the narrative. This is most prevalent for the immediate post-Mao period as a Hua Guofeng-Deng Xiaoping struggle between different ideological lines and in the profound misunderstanding of Hua as a limited, merely transitional political leader. Hua nianpu uses a wide range of sources to uncover details that contest such views. These include: the contemporary PRC public record; official documentary collections; internal Party documents including unpublished speeches and compendia of circulars at major Party meetings; memoirs, oral accounts, and recollections published in the PRC by or about leaders; studies by Party history scholars in PRC journals; more-adventurous books published in Hong Kong by Party historians and former officials; interviews with scholars and retired officials; and unique interviews with officials who worked as secretaries or as aides to very senior figures and their family members, especially members of Hua’s family. However, these sources have limitations that must be considered critically and discussed in terms of what they can and cannot provide. Taken together the detailed information compiled in Hua nianpu undermines central features of the accepted narrative, most notably by showing that the 1978 work conference and the subsequent Third Plenum were joint Hua-Deng ventures to advance modernization, and when unanticipated developments weakened Hua, Deng did not act against him. Instead, he worked to lower tensions and to return the focus to their original joint plan. Hua nianpu is a major basis for our joint book project, Hua Guofeng, Deng Xiaoping, and the Dismantling of Maoism. But this nianpu is entirely Professor Sun’s creation and exacting work. The target for submission of both these projects to their respective publishers is early 2025.
Topic:
Politics, History, Elites, Chinese Communist Party (CCP), and Hua Guofeng
Political Geography:
China and Asia

274. China, The United States And Japan In A Changing International Order: Historical Foundations Challenged By The Rise Of China

Author:
Cem Yılmaz
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Novus Orbis: Journal of Politics & International Relations
Institution:
Department of International Relations, Karadeniz Technical University
Abstract:
This study analyses bilateral relations among People’s Republic of China (China), the United States (US), and Japan by comparing the impacts of historical foundations on the one hand and a prominent contemporary factor, which is the rise of China. The study aims to compare basic historical data and the resilience of these data in the face of a rising China. The relationships among the three actors demonstrate that the historical legacy continues to hold prominence in Chinese perspectives of Japan, while the rise of the actor is prominent in American perspectives of China. Both historical legacy and a rising China factor are dominant in Japanese perceptions of China. The Japanese foreign policy towards China is characterised by a mutual reinforcement of both dimensions, resulting in an overall enhancement of their strength. The study, in this instance, demonstrated that historical parameters become less relevant when a contemporary parameter has the potential to have a major effect on history. The rise of China, which has resulted in a fundamental shift in the international order, and the decline in the importance of the historical dimension in the relationships between the actors under examination are viewed as two phenomena that reinforce one another.
Topic:
History, Geopolitics, and International Order
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

275. China-Taiwan Relations and the EU: How European Soft Power Could Help Reduce Cross-Strait Tensions

Author:
Nicola Casarini
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Russia’s war against Ukraine has brought back to the spotlight the question of China’s (officially the People’s Republic of China, PRC) potential attack on Taiwan (officially the Republic of China, ROC). Beijing claims that the island is one of its provinces, whereas the current Taiwanese government maintains that it is already an independent country. A conflict over Taiwan – or even a Chinese blockade of the island – would have immediate economic and political implications for Europe which will likely impose sanctions on the PRC, the EU’s second-largest trading partner.[1] The EU is not a security actor in East Asia, but has some formidable – and unique – soft power assets that could be leveraged to promote dialogue and understanding between China and Taiwan, with the objective of reducing tensions in the area and maintaining the status quo.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, International Relations, European Union, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Taiwan, and Asia

276. Europe’s De-risking from China: Dead on Arrival?

Author:
Nicola Casarini
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
De-risking ties from China has become a buzzword in European policy circles, amid growing tensions between the West and the Asian giant. While US policymakers and experts continue to focus on the need to decouple ties from Beijing, the concept of de-risking has been largely fashioned in Brussels to avoid the decoupling debate and find a common transatlantic ground. While EU member states have reduced critical dependencies on China to varying degrees, their efforts are resisted by some large companies, local authorities and civil society actors eager to boost ties with Beijing. Recently, several EU governments have been promoting industrial cooperation with China, opening doors to Chinese investments in their territories to boost production of electric vehicles and green technologies. While this form of cooperation brings benefits to Europe’s industrial capacity and competitiveness, it however risks increasing the level of dependency on Beijing, undermining the de-risking strategy being put in place by the European Commission, as well as deepening the rift with the US on how to deal with the Asian giant. Going forward, there is a need for a thorough and frank debate about the EU’s de-risking strategy and its future prospect, also considering a possible return of Trump to the White House.
Topic:
Foreign Direct Investment, European Union, Trade, Transatlantic Relations, Industry, and De-Risking
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Asia

277. The Beijing Palestinian Reconciliation Agreement: An Opportunity not to Be Missed

Author:
Menachem Klein
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The Palestinian reconciliation agreement signed in Beijing on 22 July[1] did not attract much attention. It is easy to understand why. Many agreements like it have been signed between Fatah and Hamas since the 1980s and have not been implemented. What is different about this agreement? The difference does not lie in the prospects for reconciliation, which may materialise or ultimately fail like its predecessors, but rather in the contents to which the Hamas movement has agreed. In other words, the novelty is not in the reconciliation but in Hamas’s modified positions.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, Hamas, and Reconciliation
Political Geography:
China, Middle East, Israel, Asia, and Palestine

278. Techno-Realism: Navigating New Challenges in the Contemporary Role of Technology in Politics

Author:
Isti Marta Sukma
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
This paper aims to introduce a new theory, techno-realism, which is derived from political realism, to help comprehend the complex connections between technology and politics. According to techno-realism, technology serves as a means of power, with the innate drive for survival in human nature shaping the formation of identity. The research question at the core of this study revolves around the extent to which technology influences contemporary political science and whether it truly serves as a means of power. Three concepts are introduced: identity establishment, technology as the central source of power, and non-state actors in politics. The primary case study focuses on the complexity of the issue in Xinjiang, examining the application of cyberpolitics in the region. The second case study explores technology’s role in Indonesia’s political power struggle, as evidenced by its 2024 elections and the abuse of information and electronic transaction law effectiveness to control freedom of speech. Additionally, this paper introduces a case study on the Indo-Pacific regional power dynamics in confronting “digital authoritarianism”. This paper underscores the imperative for a new theoretical framework, adapted from political realism, which despite being subject to considerable criticism, has the potential for further development, placing technology at the core of analysis. Recognising the central roles of technology, identity formation, and non-state actors, techno-realism offers valuable insights for navigating complex political landscapes and informing strategic responses to emerging challenges. However, further research is needed to understand completely its applicability and limitations across different contexts, as demonstrated by the case studies presented in this paper.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Authoritarianism, Elections, Realism, and Techno-realism
Political Geography:
China, Indonesia, Asia, Global Focus, and Xinjiang

279. China’s security relations with Africa in the 21st century

Author:
Monika Magdalena Krukowska
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
The paper examines China’s increasing security interests in Africa. It seeks to understand the nature and scope of Chinese engagement in peace and security issues on the continent based on its engagement in international and domestic (African) politics. Through literature analysis and logical reasoning, the author intends to define the implications of China’s new role as a security provider. The paper is based on desk research using primary and secondary data and statistical and comparative analysis of official documents, academic research, and media sources. The methods include literature analysis, logical reasoning, statistical research, comparative analysis, and the inductive method to build general theorems. The paper analyses aspects of China’s security engagement on the African continent: its participation in the United Nations Peacekeeping Operations, small arms exports, and Beijing’s sharing of technology with African partners. China’s engagement in Africa’s security helps to advance its vital economic and political interests, with limited impact on African security. Key lessons for African partners are offered. The last decades have seen an extraordinary increase in China’s economic and political ties with Africa. Security cooperation followed massive Chinese investments and thousands of Chinese nationals working on the continent. China’s security engagement in Africa protects Beijing’s interests regarding access to resources, markets, political influence, and social credibility. It has little to do with a benevolent will to help Africa deal with instability or economic underdevelopment. African partners must make necessary efforts to avoid further dependence on China.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, International Security, Peacekeeping, Cybersecurity, and Cooperation
Political Geography:
Africa, China, and Asia

280. How external actors seek to influence the Western Balkans?

Author:
Harun Nuhanović
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:
The Western Balkans, a region with a complex history and significant geopolitical value, finds itself at the crossroads of influence from major external powers—Russia, China, and Turkey. Each of these countries extends its reach through various domains such as economics, culture, religion, politics, and security, exploiting both state and non-state mechanisms to cement their influence. This report delves into the strategies employed by these state actors, highlighting their individual and collective impacts on the strategic landscape of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Serbia, and Montenegro. The findings reveal how these external influences pose both opportunities and significant risks, shaping the regional dynamics and the future integration of these states into larger international frameworks such as the European Union (EU) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, European Union, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Turkey, Kosovo, and Western Balkans