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41. The Relevance of Financial and Economic Factors for Determining Banking Risk across Europe

Author:
Renata Karkowska
Publication Date:
11-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The goal of this study is to identify empirically how country-level development, taking into account the financial and macroeconomic environment, affect the risk profiles of the banking sector in Europe. Through a dataset that covers 3,399 European banks spanning the period 1996-2011, and the methodology of panel regression, the empirical findings document the heterogeneity of banking risk determinants. I examine the implications of bank leverage that manifest itself as spreading and growing instability. The study contributes to and combines the different strands of literature and understanding of the importance of the links between the variables. It also contributes to the literature by focusing on a group of countries from Central and Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States that have not been studied before. The extended model provides a causal link between risk in the banking sector and the growth of the financial market and macroeconomy. I apply four measures of country-level development that are available in previous studies: share of foreign ownership in the banking sector; the financial freedom index; the real growth rate; and stock market capitalization. Using these measures, I obtain different results which highlight the fact that the effect of macroeconomic and financial development on banking sector risk-taking is ambiguous.
Topic:
Financial Markets, Economic growth, Banks, Trade Liberalization, Macroeconomics, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, Central Europe, and European Union

42. How Not to Get Stuck in the Middle Lessons for the Commonwealth of Independent States from Central and Eastern Europe

Author:
Jakub Zowczak and Kamil Pruchnik
Publication Date:
09-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The aim of this paper is to analyze how different models of transformation in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) increased or decreased the risk of being stuck in the middle-income trap (MIT). The key finding is that the CEE and CIS countries are, from a definition point of view, not materially at risk of the MIT as out of nine selected MIT definitions, none of the CEE or CIS countries were “stuck” more than three times. At the same time, the CEE countries are more at risk of falling into the MIT than the CIS countries; however this is because the CIS is a poorer region and is not near the lower MIT thresholds. The CEE countries had a better start at the beginning of the transformation and on average implemented a better set of transformation models; however, some CEE countries are now struggling to permanently join the advanced countries and CIS countries are, on average, far behind that. The literature review on transformation models and the analysis of the “jumps” in the World Bank ranking classification suggest that while the MIT is not a concern for CEE or CIS countries, in order to speed up convergence, CIS countries might consider more shocks and consistently following free market related approaches. The study fills a gap in the literature on the MIT which has thoroughly analyzed the Asian and Latin American countries but has provided little analysis of the CEE and CIS countries.
Topic:
Finance, Economic growth, Economic Policy, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Europe

43. Aftermath of the Terror Attack on Breitscheid Platz Christmas Market: Germany’s Security Architecture and Parliamentary Inquiries

Author:
Sebastian von Münchow
Publication Date:
08-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies
Abstract:
On December 19th 2016, Anis Amri, a Tunisian citizen, hijacked a truck and crashed into a Christmas market at Breitscheid Platz in Berlin. The Islamic State claimed responsibility for the attack, which resulted in twelve deaths and fifty additional casualties. Amri escaped the crime scene and travelled through Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, and France to Northern Italy where police officers killed him near Milan three days later. This assault was the first major terrorist event in Germany for decades. Prior to this event, the most recent attacks were the Red Army Faction plots in the 1970s, the Olympics hostage-taking in 1972, and the right-wing motivated attack on Munich’s Oktoberfest in 1980. This attack, in which a vehicle rammed into a crowded Christmas market in the center of Berlin, not only sparked a debate about Berlin’s migration policy at large, but also focused the conversation on specific questions. How could Amri be seeking asylum in Germany despite his criminal record in Italy? How did he operate inside Germany using fourteen different identities? Did he rely on a network of supporters? How did he manage to travel through half of Europe before his life ended? Some political voices called for security-related reforms aimed at improving video surveillance, data exchange, and deportation processes, while others demanded a thorough parliamentary investigation of the plot. This paper will briefly touch upon those parliamentary attempts on state and federal level to explore the plot. It will then revisit federal inquiries into matters related to the security architecture over the past twenty-seven years as well as the coverage of these inquiries in the media. Finally, this study will conclude with some thoughts about whether a federal parliamentary inquiry should have been used to investigate what happened before, during, and after the attack.
Topic:
Migration, Terrorism, Violent Extremism, and Islamic State
Political Geography:
Europe, Germany, Italy, Berlin, and Central Europe

44. Central and Eastern European Countries under Cyberthreats

Author:
Joanna Świątkowska
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:
Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:
The paper aims to analyse how information warfare can be conducted in cyberspace and to look at this issue from the perspective of Central and Eastern European Countries. It argues that this form of hostile actions will be increasingly utilized in the region. The main assumption, following Alvin Toffler’s theory, is that ‘information’ – as an increasingly important element of modern societies and as their strategic resource – also serves as a significant tool of modern conflicts. Since information is nowadays strongly related to new technologies, mainly the aspects connected to cybersecurity are analysed. The article looks closer at different aspects of cyberthreats and explains their possible consequences. It may serve as good material for further research and recommendations on countermeasures that may increase security in Europe.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Central Europe

45. At the Gate of Europe: a Report on Refugees on the Western Balkan Route

Author:
Senada Šelo Šabić and Sonja Borić
Publication Date:
05-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:
In the period between September 2015 and March 2016 Croatia was faced with a refugee crisis during which over 700 000 people passed through its territory on their way to Western Europe. Croatia was just one of the transit countries on the so called Balkan route. This study, authored by Senada Šelo Šabić and Sonja Borić, presents an analysis of the situation in the four countries along the route: Macedonia, Serbia, Croatia and Slovenia, taking into account the wider European context. The analysis of each country includes an overview of procedural solutions, relevant legislative framework, political discourse, media reports and the role of the civil society in the crisis.
Topic:
Civil Society, Migration, United Nations, European Union, and Refugees
Political Geography:
Europe, Balkans, Macedonia, Croatia, Central Europe, Slovenia, and Southern Europe

46. IRMO Brief 02/16

Author:
Janko Bekić and Marina Funduk
Publication Date:
02-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:
On 29 September 2015, representatives of twelve Central and Eastern European countries held the �irst exploratory meeting of the Adriatic-Baltic-Black Sea (ABB) Initiative, aimed at strengthening the political and economic cooperation of EU member states located between the three seas. The meeting was held in New York, on the sidelines of the 70th Session of the United Nations General Assembly, under the initiative of Croatian president Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović. The other heads of state attending the meeting were Polish president Andrzej Duda, Romanian president Klaus Iohannis and Bulgarian president Rosen Plevneliev. Hungary, Slovakia, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia dispatched ministers of foreign affairs, whereas Austria, Slovenia and the Czech Republic were represented on a lower level. The meeting was also attended by representatives of the Atlantic Council think tank. Bolstering cooperation between Central European states on the north-south axis has been the declared foreign policy goal of Croatian president Grabar-Kitarović ever since she assumed of�ice in February 2015 . Bolstering cooperation between Central European states on the north-south axis has been the declared foreign policy goal of Croatian president Grabar-Kitarović ever since she assumed of�ice in February 2015. Since then, she has found a staunch ally in Polish president Duda, who took of�ice in August of that same year and stressed that he was striving for the creation of a partner bloc between the Baltic, Black and Adriatic seas. This development is noteworthy for two reasons: �irstly, it represents a widening of the foreign policies of their predecessors – Ivo Josipović of Croatia and Bronislaw Komorowski of Poland. In his �ive-year term, Josipović focused mainly on reinvigorating the ties among former Yugoslav republics, whereas Komorowski concentrated on aligning Warsaw’s interests with those of the European Union’s leading capitals, Berlin and London.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, Croatia, Central Europe, Baltic Sea, Adriatic Sea, and Black Sea

47. ON FEMINISMS IN CZECH POLITICAL CONTEXTS

Author:
Blanka Knotkova-Capkova
Publication Date:
02-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Department of International Relations, Abant Izzet Baysal University, Turkey
Abstract:
This paper is suggesting a periodization of Czech emancipist women’s movement within historical, political and other contexts, from the perspective of feminist analysis. The first phase (roughly up to 1860s – 1870s) represents the beginings of of the movement. This period of the emancipist movement was much influenced by liberal thoughts, namely those of John Stuart Mill. The main emphasis was put on female education. During the seconf phase (up to the end of the First World War and establishing of independent Czechoslovakia), new political aims were articulated, especially the struggle for the female suffrage. In 1905, a “Committee for women’s suffrage” was founded. This phase can be characterized as a shift from more vague emancipism to feminism as a political program. The period between the First and Second World Wars is often called as a „Golden age of feminism in the Czech country“. By the constitution of the new state, education became equal for all the citizens, women got the right to vote and be elected. Czech feminist movement became a part of the world’s movement of the times. This development was cut by the war. The communist dictatorship (1948-1989) supressed any activities from below, feminist activities included. Women as obligatory “builders of socialism” remained loaded with the duties in the private sphere (family) and thus faced a double burden work. Their “emancipation” was rather doubtful. After 1989, a beginning of a transfer to democracy opened the scene for independent activities, the feminist ones included (NGOs). Some laws supporting equal opportunities were passed but some are waiting for acceptance. In the academy, gender studies emerged for the first time – a separate Master´s department was established at Charles University, Prague. Feminism has been developing as a plural system of thoughts, with the specifics of the Czech historical experiences.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Discrimination, Feminism, and Dictatorship
Political Geography:
Europe, Czech Republic, Central Europe, and Prague

48. The Rise of Intelligence Studies: A Model for Germany? Download

Author:
Alessandro Corvaja, Brigita Jeraj, and Uwe M. Borghoff
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Connections
Institution:
Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:
Intelligence Studies have established themselves as a common subject in higher education in the Anglosphere. Germany so far offers no dedicated program in the field. A postgraduate program that promotes an understanding of the role and context of intelligence, strengthens analytical skills and deepens subject-matter expertise would combine the best features of various educational models, and provide a real contribution to building a cadre of highly qualified intelligence professionals. In this research report, the authors succinctly document the state of the discipline, present examples of some twelve degree programs, and, finally, develop initial proposals for an intelligence curriculum for German universities.
Topic:
Education, Intelligence, and Higher Education
Political Geography:
Europe, Germany, and Central Europe

49. Writing the Future of Germany: Progressive Politics in Turbulent Times

Author:
Sigmar Gabriel
Publication Date:
03-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:
Europe has reached a turning point in history. 2015 marks the end of a European era that began with an entire continent embarking on a new age of progress. Twenty-five peaceful years since the fall of the Berlin Wall had raised everyone’s hopes, and the future of Europe seemed to promise democracy, prosperity, security, and stability. Now, these hopes have been replaced by uncertainty. Francis Fukuyama’s “end of history” with the anticipated triumph of liberal Western-style democracy, its normative consensus, and its market-oriented economy has not come about. Instead of a world of peace and progress, we are experiencing a world of uncertainty and insecurity: The Ukraine crisis has brought war back to Europe. The Greece debt crisis brought the eurozone to the brink of failure. The nihilist murderers of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham, or ISIS, are exporting their terror to Europe—a continent that at the same time appears incapable of finding a common response to millions of refugees seeking protection and a new home in Europe. What’s more, although a unified Europe was blessed with many years of growing prosperity after the founding treaties of the European Union were signed, the Europe of today is economically and politically instable and increasingly perceived as a source of incalculable risks.
Topic:
Security, Counter-terrorism, Refugees, and Economic Policy
Political Geography:
Europe, Germany, and Central Europe

50. The Belt and Road initiative: connecting China and Central Europe

Author:
Xiao Fang
Publication Date:
12-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Issues: Slovak Foreign Policy Affairs
Institution:
Slovak Foreign Policy Association
Abstract:
China and Central Europe have experienced similar transitions over time and have a constructive role to play in the international system, taking on responsibility for development. Cooperation between China and Central and Eastern European Countries is conducted via the “16+1” mechanism, the Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st century maritime Silk Road, known as the “Belt and Road initiative.” Central European countries are EU member states and emerging economies. They are located at a geographically strategic juncture and form part of the East Asia–Transatlantic value chain. The 16+1 mechanism is helping China and Central European countries establish high level annual meetings and is encouraging the private sector, business, people-to-people exchanges. The Belt and Road initiative is providing new financing facilities, and a dialogue with the European Commission on investment plans is being launched. Studies and working groups are emerging to help set strategies, build mechanisms, allocate resources and implement policies. This article argues that the Chinese approach, i.e. the 16+1 mechanism and Belt and Road initiative, is platforms paving the way for China–Central Europe cooperation.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Politics, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
China and Central Europe