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1. The Escalation of Conflict Between Armenians and Azerbaijanis and the Problems of Peaceful Resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh War

Author:
Valeri Modebadze
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
This article explains why it is so difficult to achieve peace in Nagorno-Karabakh and what factors prevent the peaceful resolution of the conflict. This conflict is very difficult to resolve because the conflicting parties have contradictory geopolitical interests and cannot achieve consensus during negotiations. We have to take into account Russia’s geopolitical interests in South Caucasus that Kremlin is interested in freezing this conflict to weaken both states, Azerbaijan and Armenia, and bring them back to Russia’s orbit. Moscow aims to establish firm control over South Caucasus which was viewed in the past as a ‘Russian backyard’. Russia still views South Caucasus as its zone of influence and tries to bring this region back into Russia’s orbit.
Topic:
Territorial Disputes, Conflict, Negotiation, and Peace
Political Geography:
Eurasia, Caucasus, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Nagorno-Karabakh

2. Bridging the Elite-Grassroots Divide Among Anticorruption Activists

Author:
Abigail Bellows
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The professionalization of the anticorruption field has produced a cadre of capital-based NGOs with the technical expertise to be formidable government watchdogs. But at what cost? Corruption-fueled political change is occurring at a historic rate—but is not necessarily producing the desired systemic reforms. There are many reasons for this, but one is the dramatic dissipation of public momentum after a transition. In countries like Armenia, the surge in civic participation that generated 2018’s Velvet Revolution largely evaporated after the new government assumed power. That sort of civic demobilization makes it difficult for government reformers, facing stubbornly entrenched interests, to enact a transformative agenda. The dynamics in Armenia reflect a trend across the anticorruption landscape, which is also echoed in other sectors. As the field has become more professionalized, anticorruption nongovernment organizations (NGOs) have developed the legal and technical expertise to serve as excellent counterparts/watchdogs for government. Yet this strength can also be a hurdle when it comes to building credibility with the everyday people they seek to represent. The result is a disconnect between elite and grassroots actors, which is problematic at multiple levels.
Topic:
Corruption, Political Activism, NGOs, and Political Movements
Political Geography:
Caucasus and Armenia

3. Preventing a Bloody Harvest on the Armenia-Azerbaijan State Border

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
What’s new? Deadly July 2020 clashes between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces left dozens dead, civilians among them, and forced villagers to flee their homes on the Armenia-Azerbaijan state border. Shooting across the trenches along the border is more frequent today than anywhere else on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict’s front lines. Why does it matter? Efforts by Baku and Yerevan, including through limited diplomacy, a communication channel set up in 2018 and an agreement between the two sides to safeguard farmers, have largely failed to create conditions that would deter people from leaving border areas. Violence there also risks permanently damaging wider peace efforts. What should be done? The two sides should use the communication channel to warn each other about planned engineering works or other activities that might be misconstrued and lead to escalation. They should begin talks on limited cooperation to allow farmers to harvest crops, repair water networks and clear mines.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, Violence, and Peace
Political Geography:
Caucasus, Armenia, and Azerbaijan

4. Unknown Suburbs: Azerbaijani Settlements of the Gardabani Municipality

Author:
Aleksandre Kvakhadze
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
Since declaring its independence, the Georgian state has been struggling with the integration of its ethnic minorities. The regions densely populated by ethnic Azerbaijanis and Armenians have been passively involved in the social and political processes in Georgia. The combination of the legacy of Soviet ‘national policy,’ an ineffective educational system and socio-economic problems hinder the integration of these regions. This paper will be devoted to the Gardabani municipality, an administrative entity with a significant Azerbaijani population. Several factors have determined the choice of this region for this study. Firstly, geographically speaking, the region represents a suburban area of the cities of Tbilisi and Rustavi. It can be considered as a part of ‘greater Tbilisi/Rustavi’ or a ‘Tbilisi-Rustavi agglomeration.’ Secondly, despite its proximity to Georgia’s political and economic center, the Azerbaijani community in this region has been leading a parallel life and is disconnected from the country’s social and political dynamics. Simultaneously, very little is known about this region and very little research has been carried out on its multi-ethnic population. Unlike the neighboring Marneuli municipality, which has been receiving increasing attention from academia, the media and the non-governmental sector, the Azerbaijani population in Garbadani remains neglected by academic and non-governmental bodies. For instance, there is no comprehensive academic research on the linguistic, historical, ethnologic, social and religious parameters of Azerbaijanis in Gardabani. The absence of reliable works leads to myths and uncertainties regarding Georgia’s Azerbaijanis. Thirdly, the Gardabani municipality has been an artificially fabricated landmass with at least two culturally and geographically unrelated regions which leads to the lack of interaction between the ethnic Georgian and the Azerbaijani population. Nevertheless, the Gardabani municipality has a significant potential due its strategic geographic location. Several strategic pipelines and the Georgian railway cross the region. In addition to infrastructural and economic development, using the potential of human resources is crucial in regional development. Incorporating the Azerbaijani population of the region in Georgia’s domestic socio-political dynamics and removing the ethnic boundaries will reinforce the development of the region. This paper will discuss the economy, religion, education, women’s rights, organized crime, politics and inter-ethnic relationships in the Gardabani municipality. This paper is a first endeavor to describe this region’s Azerbaijani population. I hope that this paper will become a source of guidance for practitioners, scholars, journalists and NGO activists and assist them to implement their projects in this region. I also hope that it will lead to more comprehensive research on this region.
Topic:
Education, Religion, Governance, Minorities, Women, and Economic Development
Political Geography:
Eurasia, Caucasus, Azerbaijan, and Georgia

5. China’s Activities in the South Caucasus: Issue 1, 29.06.2020 – 26.07.2020

Author:
Medea Ivaniadze
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
The digest covers China’s political, diplomatic, economic and other activities in the South Caucasus region and relations between China and the South Caucasus countries. It relies on a wide variety of sources, including the Chinese media. It is worth noting that the Chinese media is controlled by the Communist Party of China (according to the World Press Freedom Index China is nearly at the bottom of the list and ranks 177th out of 180 countries).
Topic:
Diplomacy, Politics, Media, Economy, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:
China, Eurasia, Caucasus, Asia, and South Caucasus

6. Quarterly Review of the Georgian Economy (III Quarter, 2019)

Author:
Merab Kakulia, Nodar Kapanadze, and Lela Bakhtadze
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
The Quarterly Review of the Georgian Economy is an electronic publication of the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies (Rondeli Foundation), which aims at informing readers about the ongoing processes within the country’s economy. The review is based on data of official statistics and on expert estimates.
Topic:
Debt, International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, Budget, Employment, Economy, Economic growth, Banks, and Inflation
Political Geography:
Eurasia, Caucasus, and Georgia

7. Perceptions and Reflections of the Security Crisis in the Black Sea Region

Author:
Plamen Pantev
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:
The first reflection about the geopolitical environment that Bulgaria faced after the tectonic systemic shifts in the end of the 80s and the beginning of the 90s of the 20th century thirty years later is that the efforts of the country to influence the transformation of the Balkans into a regional security community were successful. The second reflection is that Bulgaria was not able to influence effectively a similar development in the Black Sea area. Both the Balkans and the Caspian Sea-Caucasus- Black Sea area were conflictual knots of relations inherited from the Cold War divide. While the traditional European great powers that polarized the Balkan system of international relations pushing the small countries one against the other and the United States had the strategic interest of pacifying the South Eastern region of Europe, the dominating great power in the Black Sea area – Russia, aimed at preserving the opportunities of coming back to the territories that the Soviet Union lost after its collapse by preserving various degrees of conflictness in the neighbouring countries. Depending on the general condition of the Russian economy and state as well as its domestic political status different opportunities were either designed or just used to preserve the profile of Russia of the empire that sooner or later will be back. What are, in this regard, the perceptions in Bulgaria of the annexation of Crimea?
Topic:
Security, International Security, Geopolitics, Conflict, and Empire
Political Geography:
Russia, Caucasus, Soviet Union, Bulgaria, and Caspian Sea

8. A preliminary assessment of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Azerbaijani economy

Author:
CESD Research Team
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
Azerbaijan became the country among the post-soviet countries, that allocated the largest share of GDP, in order to eliminate the economic challenges caused due to the outbreak of COVID-19. Providing favorable economic conditions in the post-pandemic period is as crucial as supporting the economy during the period of the pandemic. It is an undeniable fact that the impact of the pandemic on the economy might be fully assessed only over time. Experience demonstrates that early evaluation may lead to even greater recession and instability. This paper aims to demonstrate the challenges faced by Azerbaijan in the framework of the fight against a pandemic. Since the economy of a country was affected, a detailed analysis may provide a better understanding of the outcome, enlightening the areas which need more support and development.
Topic:
Development, Economy, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
Eurasia, Caucasus, and Azerbaijan

9. Amendments to state budget of Azerbaijan for 2020: Reasons and Expectations

Author:
Narmina Gasimova and Nigar İslamlı
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
Nowadays, global economic growth has been severely affected beyond anything passed in nearly a century. The outbreak of the coronavirus disease has brought its negative impact and destructive outcome on the economies alongside with the sharp fluctuations in global energy and stock markets. There might be observed a subsequent sharp decline in the number of transactions and practical shutdown of many markets due to the large-scale quarantine and self-isolation measures. Taking into consideration the abovementioned factors, it becomes clear that there emerged a need to revise all economic forecasts for 2020-2021. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted a decline of the global economic growth rate in April (-3%), but in accordance with the current circumstances, the figures were revised in June, representing a 4.9% decrease. In spite of a fact that Azerbaijan became one of the first countries among the post-soviet countries, that allocated the largest share of GDP, in order to eliminate the economic problems caused due to the pandemic, the impact of the emerged difficulties made a necessity to revise the budget.
Topic:
Budget, GDP, Economy, Coronavirus, IMF, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Eurasia, Caucasus, and Azerbaijan

10. Analysis of the Socio-Economic Situation of the Mountainous Region of the Guria and Khulo Municipalities

Author:
Zurab Batiashvili and Alexander Kvakhadze
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
The purpose of the present study is to analyze the social and economic problems in the Khulo municipality and the mountainous region of Guria and identify ways to solve them. It is noteworthy that both the internal socioeconomic challenges and the current geopolitical reality are greatly influencing the region. The paper examines the challenges facing the region in the fields of religion, political engagement, education and socio-economic development. The combination of these problems to some extent impedes the region’s progress and its full integration into Georgia’s social and political space. The work has been produced under the auspices of the United Kingdom Good Governance Fund and the British Good Governance Fund in the framework of the Rondeli Foundation’s project entitled Promoting Participation and Engagement in Local Governance in the Mountainous region of Guria and Adjara.
Topic:
Development, Geopolitics, Economy, and Rural
Political Geography:
Eurasia, Caucasus, and Georgia