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91. Turkey's Troubles in the Caucasus

Author:
Michael A. Reynolds
Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Insight Turkey
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
Increasing numbers of Turks have come to recognize that their country's traditionally hesitant and circumspect foreign policy no longer serves its interests, and is incommensurate with Turkey's regional weight. Accordingly, the governing Justice and Development Party has attempted to shed that tradition by seeking to engage Turkey's neighbors proactively in recent years. In the Caucasus, Ankara has taken steps that may lead to the normalization of relations with Yerevan and the breaking of the stalemate over Nagorno-Karabakh. The Russo-Georgian War of 2008, however, demonstrates that Turkish diplomacy faces a severe test for which it may not be prepared. The war revealed that old institutional practices continue to constrain Turkey's diplomacy; moreover, the war restored Russia to the position of spoiler in the Caucasus. The return of Russia may mean that Turkey's new diplomacy will be too little, too late.
Topic:
War
Political Geography:
Turkey and Caucasus

92. Will Georgia Go North? On Democracy and Regional Security in the Caucasus

Author:
Lasha Tchantouridze
Publication Date:
10-2007
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Insight Turkey
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
The results of the January 5 2008 presidential elections in Georgia will have a long-lasting effect on this emerging democracy, as well as its foreign policy orientation, and on overall stability in the Caucasus. The winner, Mikheil Saakashvili, widely seen as a pro-American and pro-Western politician very keen on the issues of joining NATO and the EU, has in fact done nothing during his first four years in power to secure his country's political independence from Russia or to weaken Moscow's position in the Caucasus. If Saakashvilis's deeds, rather than his words, are examined more carefully, he appears to be more pro-Russian in his foreign orientation rather than pro-Western. It is not entirely unlikely that President Putin of Russia and his Georgian counterpart Saakashvili are staging the hate game between themselves for the benefit of Western observers and their respective domestic audiences. Saakashvili has just managed to secure his second term in office on the anti-Russian ticket, with all the legal and illegal means at his disposal. This will keep his political opposition, whatever is left of the independent news media, and the majority of Georgians actively opposed to him for years to come. If pressured hard by the West, Saakashvili may be forced to make a turn in his foreign policy orientation, and openly choose Moscow as his political overlord. Such a turn of events would have long reaching consequences for the overall stability and security of the Caucasus, as well as for extra-regional links and energy cooperation.
Topic:
Security and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
America, Caucasus, Moscow, and Georgia

93. Azerbaijan 2006 Survey FAQ

Publication Date:
07-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Academy of Political Science
Abstract:
Dates of Fieldwork: Nov. 17 -Dec. 20, 2006 Sample Size: 1,600 Consists of a base national sample of 1,400 and an oversample of 200 respondents in select areas of the country Data presented here reflects national distribution of population. Margin of error for national sample: ±2.75% Urban/Rural Distribution: Urban (51%), Rural (49%) Gender Breakdown: Women (53%), Men (47%).
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Caucasus, Asia, and Azerbaijan

94. Building Stability in the North Caucasus: Ways Forward for Russia and the European Union

Author:
Neil J. Melvin
Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
The North Caucasus is a mountainous region in the south of the Russian Federation, bordered by the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov to the west, Georgia and Azerbaijan to the south, and the Caspian Sea to the east. In this Policy Paper, as in much policy discussion about current developments in the region, the term 'North Caucasus' refers to eight republics of the Russian Federation—Adygeya, Chechnya, Dagestan, Ingushetia, Kabardino-Balkaria, Kalmykia, Karachai-Cherkessia and North Ossetia (Alania)—as well as the predominately ethnic Russian territories of Krasnodar krai and Stavropol krai.
Topic:
Islam and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Russia, Caucasus, Azerbaijan, and Georgia

95. Javakheti after the Rose Revolution: Progress and Regress in the Pursuit of National Unity in Georgia

Author:
Hedvig Lohm
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Centre for Minority Issues
Abstract:
Javakheti is situated in the South-East of Georgia, and is densely inhabited by Georgia's second largest national minority, Armenians. In most respects, Javakheti has been more dependent on Russia (in socio-economic terms) and Armenia (in cultural terms) than on its proper state, Georgia, since Georgia gained independence in 1991. Throughout the 1990s the region was often described as a 'potential hot-spot', yet another possible breakaway region in the Caucasus. This working paper will look into whether the situation has started to change in terms of whether Javakheti is now closer to becoming an integrated part of Georgia, given that territorial unity has been one of the main priorities of the Georgian government since the 'Rose Revolution' of 2003. The aim of this paper is thus to create a better understanding of the challenges that Javakheti faces, in order to facilitate an informed debate on the current situation and the future development of the region.
Topic:
Government, Nationalism, and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Caucasus, Armenia, and Georgia

96. Dukhobors in Georgia: A Study of the Issue of Land Ownership and Inter-Ethnic Relations in Ninotsminda rayon (Samtskhe-Javakheti)

Author:
Hedvig Lohm
Publication Date:
11-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Centre for Minority Issues
Abstract:
This working paper is the result of a fact-finding fieldwork mission conducted in August, September and October 2006 in the Ninotsminda rayon (district), in the Samtskhe-Javakheti region of Georgia. It is based on 70 interviews with local inhabitants, authorities and other related parties as well as legal documents and analytical articles. The intention of the paper is to analyse the current situation in the multi-ethnic rayon of Ninotsminda. Special attention is given to the conditions of the Dukhobors, a Russian ethno-religious group that has inhabited the Ninotsminda rayon since the 1840s. Currently, the future existence of the Dukhobor community is in jeopardy. This paper will work to explain why. A background to Dukhoborian history in Georgia will be provided, as well as a short socio-economic overview for readers who are not familiar with Samtskhe-Javakheti in general and Ninotsminda in particular. In addition, a number of acute problems that have recently arisen for the Dukhobor community in the village of Gorelovka will be accounted for. The paper will also provide recommendations for future actions.
Topic:
Demographics, Ethnic Conflict, and Religion
Political Geography:
Caucasus

97. Defusing Conflict in Tsalka District of Georgia: Migration, International Intervention and the Role of the State

Author:
Jonathan Wheatley
Publication Date:
10-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
The Tsalka district of Georgia, situated in the west of the province of Kvemo Kartli, is home to a highly diverse population and has, since Georgia gained independence, been affected by three interconnected and potentially destabilising trends. First, after the collapse of the USSR, the local economy disintegrated. During the Soviet era, Tsalka had been a highly productive agricultural region, but after the Soviet internal market broke down and the roads and railway links fell into disrepair, most inhabitants of Tsalka district were forced to eke out a subsistence living from what they could grow and raise on their own parcels of land. Secondly, the state-society relationship in Tsalka district has changed radically over the last twenty years; from a highly regulating state in the Soviet period, to its virtual withdrawal in the 1990s and early 2000s, to a re-establishment of state authority in the aftermath of the November 2003 'Rose Revolution'. Finally, Tsalka has been the epicentre of successive waves of in-migration and out-migration; from a large-scale exodus of Greeks that began in the immediate aftermath of the collapse of the Soviet Union and continues unabated today to the rapid in-migration of Georgians from Adjara and Svaneti that began to gain pace in the late 1990s and reached its peak during the construction of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline in 2003-2004.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Development, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Caucasus

98. Chechnya Weekly: Rebels Launch Large Raid On Nalchik

Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Rebels in Kabardino-Balkaria on October 13 tried to seize all of the buildings of the republic's power structures in the capital, Nalchik. The attack was carried out by large group of what the authorities called "religious extremist-Wahhabis." According to official estimates, 150-300 rebels were involved the attack. Kavkazky Uzel website reported, however, that up to 600 were involved in the raid. The separatist Daymohk website reported that the raid was carried out by "mujahideen" of the "Caucasus Front." As newsru.com noted, the "Caucasus Front" was established along with five others_the Dagestani, Eastern, Western, Northern, and Grozny fronts_on the orders of Chechen separatist leader Abdul- Khalim Sadulaev.
Topic:
Security, Civil War, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Caucasus, Chechnya, and Kabardino

99. Promoting security sector governance in the EU's neighbourhood

Author:
Heiner Hänggi and Fred Tanner
Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
With the European Union's enlargement eastwards and southwards, its neighbourhood now stretches from the Balkans to the south Caucasus, and from Russia to the southern Mediterranean. The EU's eastern and southern neighbourhood is composed of areas which, to a greater or lesser extent, have serious deficits in security, development and democracy. There are many types of security problems, ranging from weak states and rampant international crime to spoilers in post-conflict reconstruction and unpredictable authoritarian leaders who pursue regime security often at the expense of national or regional security. In terms of socio-economic development, most of the countries in the EU's neighbourhood are fragile, often struggling with the effects of black market economies and cronyism, and burdened by bloated defence and security sectors that escape any accountability. As regards political systems, the EU's neighbourhood is composed of regime types ranging from new but weak democracies to regimes with authoritarian features and limited political participation.
Topic:
Security, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Caucasus, and Balkans

100. Montenegro's Referendum

Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Although there are some shoals still to be navigated, the narrow pro-independence victory in Montenegro's 21 May 2006 referendum should, on balance, increase rather than diminish stability in the western Balkans. It is in the interest of the European Union (EU), now that its previous policy of keeping Serbia and Montenegro together has run its course, to welcome the new state and speed its accession to international institutions. Podgorica still faces significant challenges associated with transition, but none should affect regional stability, and all can be resolved as the country moves forward with the Stabilisation and Association process towards EU membership. Given the positive international response to the referendum, Montenegro can aspire to becoming a “boring” country moving toward integration with Europe. But its opposition, and Belgrade, need to be persuaded not to renege on their commitments to the EU to accept the referendum result, lest this generate new uncertainties in the region as a Kosovo status decision approaches.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Europe, Caucasus, Kosovo, Serbia, and Balkans