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1. What Could Changing Conflict Dynamics Mean for the Risk of Mass Atrocities in Burma

Author:
Andrea Gittleman and Denise-Nicole Stone
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
In March 2024, the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum’s Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide hosted a private roundtable discussion on potential conflict scenarios in Burma/Myanmar. The discussion explored plausible trajectories of the conflict over the next six months, and whether these paths may lead to increased risk of mass atrocities for civilians. The convening included researchers, policymakers, and civil society representatives and discussed the following questions: • What are the plausible scenarios in which the conflict could evolve in the coming six months? • What would these changes mean in terms of the mass atrocity risks to civilian populations? • Are there specific regions/areas in Burma where civilians may be at especially high risk? • What particular developments should policymakers monitor? • What potential resiliencies exist to mitigate growing or changing mass atrocity risks, and what strategies should US policymakers use to support them? • What are the policy options available to US policymakers? The discussion took place under the Chatham House rule. This report summarizes key topics from the conversation without attribution.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Atrocities, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Burma, Southeast Asia, and Myanmar

2. Leveraging Social Media for Genocide and Mass Atrocity Prevention: Understanding the Digital Toolbox

Author:
Shannon Raj Singh
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
Much of the existing literature discussing social media focuses on how it might fuel or incite mass atrocities, drawing from experiences in contexts such as Sri Lanka and Burma. But there is significantly less awareness of how tools deployed or developed by social media companies might reduce the risk of mass violence and contribute constructively to atrocity prevention efforts. This report aims to address this gap by focusing on how social media tools can support two core atrocity prevention strategies: (1) protecting vulnerable civilian populations at risk of mass atrocities, and (2) degrading potential perpetrators’ capacity to commit mass atrocities. It provides a landscape assessment of the suite of social media product, policy, and operational interventions that may offer potential to support these strategies and articulates some of the associated limitations, risks, and important considerations when these tools are deployed. This report is primarily aimed at those inside social media companies with authority to develop or deploy tools in moments of heightened atrocity risk (which may include trust and safety professionals, human rights or crisis response teams, and senior leadership), as well as atrocity prevention experts and policy makers who may be able to encourage or incentivize the use of digital tools to support atrocity prevention. Select tools may also be of interest or use for humanitarian and civil society advocacy organizations that operate in atrocity risk settings. The objective of this report is to fill a gap by expanding the understanding of both policy makers and social media platform representatives about the available tools in the digital realm to support atrocity prevention efforts, to stimulate future research in this space, and to broaden our collective imaginations in designing modern atrocity prevention policy strategies that leverage digital tools and opportunities. This report is based on a series of semi-structured expert consultations, held under the Chatham House Rule of non-attribution, with more than 30 current and former representatives of social media companies, academics and practitioners specialized in technology and atrocity prevention, and members of at-risk communities who lent their experiences and insights to support this project. The report concludes that expanding the atrocity prevention toolbox to include digital tools and interventions offers an opportunity to develop more modern atrocity prevention strategies to meet the challenges of the moment.
Topic:
Social Media, Atrocities, Digital Policy, and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:
South Asia, Sri Lanka, and Burma

3. Observe and Act The role of armed and political movements in the implementation of the Women, Peace and Security agenda in Myanmar

Author:
Zin Mar Phyo, Veronique Dudouet, Ann-Kristin Sjoberg, Tilman Papesch, Katharina Schmitz, Nicolas Sion, Maw Day Myar, and Thinzar Linn Htet
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Berghof Foundation
Abstract:
Berghof Foundation and Fight for Humanity, with the support of the German Federal Foreign Office, conducted a participatory research project examining the role that armed and political movements can play to implement UNSCR 1325. The research is based on the experiences of two Ethnic Resistance Organisations (EROs) from Myanmar: the Karenni National Progressive Party (KNPP) and the Karen National Union (KNU). One of the key findings is that the movements do engage with this agenda and have maintained a constant dialogue with women’s organisations in their territories. However, a conservative mindset still exists among parts of the leadership as well the general population. Consequently, measures to protect women in conflict areas are limited and mainly decided on by men, which reduce their effectiveness.
Topic:
Women, Conflict, Peace, and Gender
Political Geography:
Asia, Burma, and Myanmar

4. Long Odds Struggles in East and Southeast Asia, the 1910-1920s and 2010-2020s

Author:
Jeffrey Wasserstrom, Manan Ahmed, Lien-Hang Nguyen, and Jeffrey Ngo
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:
During the first decades of the last century, activists with ties to various parts of Asia embraced and then discarded different ideologies and found varying ways to connect with one another, sometimes in exile. What linked them were some shared grievances, such as a dislike of the way their community was being bullied or controlled by people in a distant capital and of the limits on their freedom to speak out on issues that concerned them and organize to bring about change. We have been seeing something similar in some ways but different in others take place now, as activists in and exiles from Hong Kong, Thailand and Burma take part in what is sometimes called "Milk Tea Alliance" struggles. There are obvious contrasts: importance of online connections now is novel; the Chinese state was a weak force a century ago, but is a strong one today; Vietnamese activists were a more central part of the earlier story than the current one; ties between South Asian and East Asian exiles were more notable a century ago; and there is no contemporary counterpart to the Comintern on the scene connecting radicals. And yet, this talk will argue, there are important echoes of the earlier period to be heard today, as well as much to learn about how different struggles in East and Southeast Asia influenced one another at other points in time, such as the 1980s. This talk will focus on Chinese activists of the early 1900s and Hong Kong ones now but place both groups in comparative and transnational perspectives, will move between the two eras with an eye toward reoccurrences, ruptures, and reversals.
Topic:
Protests, Ideology, and Activism
Political Geography:
China, Asia, Burma, Thailand, Southeast Asia, and Hong Kong

5. Myanmar’s Generals Recoup: The recurrence of military-defined “disciplined democracy”

Author:
Bart Gaens
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
Myanmar’s generals cited election fraud as the motive behind their coup. However, as the country’s transition during the past decade has been rooted in military-orchestrated “disciplined democracy”, the real drivers behind the coup are likely different.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Elections, Democracy, Coup, and Military Government
Political Geography:
Asia, Burma, and Myanmar

6. The Geostrategic Interests of External Actors in Myanmar: A Struggle for Influence in a Country in Turmoil

Author:
Bart Gaens and Olli Ruohomäki
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
Countries with geostrategic stakes in Myanmar have reacted in different ways to the military coup of 1 February 2021 and its aftermath, which have resulted in over 750 casualties thus far. China benefits from stability in Myanmar but, given its vast geoeconomic and geopolitical interests as Myanmar is a vital part of the BRI, will not criticize the military. Thailand, itself a military-dominated pseudo-democracy, is certainly reluctant to exert pressure. India focuses on its own national interest and prioritizes the partnership with its strategically important neighbour. Japan applies quiet diplomacy and aims to function as mediator, while at the same time protecting its business interests. The EU and US have sanctions in place, but history shows these do not have much effect on the junta. Russia’s presence is not significant, but Moscow uses arms sales to establish a foothold in the Indo-Pacific. ASEAN aims to mediate with Indonesia in the lead, and even achieved a broad consensus on the situation in Myanmar, but likely remains too divided to deliver lasting change on the ground. Given the divergent geostrategic interests of external actors in Myanmar, a concerted effort to achieve change in the country is unlikely. Hence, sustained change has to come from within the country.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Democracy, Coup, Military Government, Strategic Interests, and Influence
Political Geography:
Asia, Burma, and Myanmar

7. Myanmar’s Military Struggles to Control the Virtual Battlefield

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
In order to silence opposition to the February coup, Myanmar’s military is vigorously policing the internet as it quashes street protests. Outside powers and technology companies should endeavour to keep the online space free of interference and deny the junta tools of virtual repression.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Democracy, Protests, Coup, Military Government, and Oppression
Political Geography:
Asia, Burma, and Myanmar

8. COVID-19 in Cox's Bazar Pandemic Narratives from the World's Largest Refugee Camp

Author:
Yuriko Cowper-Smith
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:
Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:
Conditions in the camps have changed significantly during the COVID-19 pandemic, and Rohingya refugees face intensified challenges. As outlined, the lack of sustainability regarding food and water distribution is acutely apparent. Without suitable rations or the ability to supplement rations, refugees cannot fulfil their nutritional needs. Through the new requirements which necessitate staying close to home or indoors for long periods, the existing housing has been exposed as being less than adequate. Appropriate healthcare is more critical, and other services, such as education, are needed to sustain young refugees’ wellbeing. As in all communities, reliable information is vital to lessen the impacts of rumours and misinformation, which cause fear. Finally, gender-based inequities are aggravated by the tenuous situation.Concerning the camps, the pandemic blatantly reveals that the camps urgently require a long-term political solution. Currently, Bangladesh does not issue exit visas to Rohingya refugees, and many refugees do not hold official refugee status. This means that they cannot leave Bangladesh to be resettled in a third country. At the same time, safe repatriation is not an option due to the ongoing coup d’état and the likelihood of continued persecution upon return. This impasse, heightened by the pandemic, demonstrates that the Rohingya communities in the camps need to be able to access more permanent solutions to their plight within-country or have the option to be resettled abroad.
Topic:
Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, Rohingya, and Stateless Population
Political Geography:
Asia, Burma, and Myanmar

9. Understanding Quality Energy-Related Infrastructure Development in the Mekong Subregion: Key Drivers and Policy Implications

Author:
Han Phoumin, Sopheak Meas, and Hatda Pich An
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Many players have supported infrastructure development in the Mekong Subregion, bridging the missing links in Southeast Asia. While the influx of energy-related infrastructure development investments to the region has improved the livelihoods of millions of people on the one hand, it has brought about a myriad of challenges to the wider region in guiding investments for quality infrastructure and for promoting a low-carbon economy, and energy access and affordability, on the other hand. Besides reviewing key regional initiatives for infrastructure investment and development, this paper examines energy demand and supply, and forecasts energy consumption in the subregion during 2017–2050 using energy modelling scenario analysis. The study found that to satisfy growing energy demand in the subregion, huge power generation infrastructure investment, estimated at around $190 billion–$220 billion, is necessary between 2017 and 2050 and that such an investment will need to be guided by appropriate policy. We argue that without redesigning energy policy towards high-quality energy infrastructure, it is very likely that the increasing use of coal upon which the region greatly depends will lead to the widespread construction of coal-fired power plants, which could result in increased greenhouse gas and carbon dioxide emissions.
Topic:
Development, Energy Policy, Infrastructure, Renewable Energy, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:
China, Asia, Vietnam, Burma, Cambodia, Thailand, Southeast Asia, Laos, and Myanmar

10. Military Crackdown in Burma and the Massacres of 8/8/88

Author:
Franklin Huffman
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
American Diplomacy
Institution:
American Diplomacy
Abstract:
The February military take-over in Burma called to mind the tragic events of 1988, while I was serving as press attaché at U.S. Embassy Rangoon. During August and September that year, massive pro-democracy demonstrations resulted in the massacre of several thousand Burmese citizens at the hands of the brutal military regime. Previous attempts to throw off the shackles of totalitarianism, usually led by students, had taken place in 1962, when ruling General Ne Win’s police killed several hundred students at the University of Rangoon and dynamited the historic Students’ Union Building, and again in 1974, when the regime shot down several hundred students who marched in support of a general strike, arrested thousands, closed down schools and universities, and declared martial law. In 1988, there had been no major uprisings for 14 years, but astrologers were predicting that dire events would happen on the magical date of 8/8/88—the four eights of August 8, 1988. At the embassy, we knew things were coming to a boil. There were widespread reports of students being beaten, raped and killed in the notorious Insein Prison north of Rangoon. In the ethnic minority areas, rape, beatings, looting, and the burning down of villages were commonplace wherever the Burmese army operated. The country’s economy was in a shambles. In September of 1987 the regime suddenly and without explanation demonetized all 25, 35, and 75 kyat notes (whose strange denominations were established in a previous demonetization), so that people holding cash were wiped out; 80 percent of the money in circulation became worthless. Hundreds of enraged students stormed out of the prestigious Rangoon Institute of Technology, smashed traffic lights, and burned vehicles. The regime’s inevitable response was to close schools and universities.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Military Affairs, Violence, Memoir, Demonstrations, and Massacre
Political Geography:
Burma, Southeast Asia, and Myanmar