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1. The Russian Bloodletting Strategy in the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War: From Success to Hubris

Author:
Spyridon N. Litsas
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:
Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:
The article focuses on the role of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in shaping the balance of power in the Lesser Caucasus as a prelude to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It argues that Russia implemented a “bait and bleed” strategy to discipline Armenia for its pro-Western agenda. In addition, it focuses on Turkey’s role as a supportive apparatus for Azerbaijan’s military efforts against Armenia, evaluating the connection established between Moscow and Ankara. The Nagorno-Karabakh case marked a new manipulative Russian strategy to influence the balance of power in regions with geostrategic significance for the Kremlin.
Topic:
War, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Turkey, Caucasus, Armenia, and Azerbaijan

2. De-colonising the Azerbaijan-Armenian Conflict: Breaking the Knot of Security and Dependence

Author:
Leila Alieva
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The recent military operation in the Nagorno Karabakh area reflects a broader regional transformation. Its essence is in the second attempt (with the first one in Azerbaijan 30 years ago) of changing the security paradigm, this time in Armenia, leading to de-colonisation of relations in the region. The core of this change is liberation from the dependence on Russia’s almost two centuries old patronage, with Nagorno Karabakh conflict evolving as a tool of this dependence. With all the contradictions over the territory between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and difference in current political systems, the countries seem at last to arrive to the same conclusion of Russia and her control of the Karabakh elite being one of the obstacles to the peaceful relations, reforms and integration in the West. The power balance in the region, affected by such factors as Turkey’s greater involvement, distraction of the West, Russia’s increasing isolation, besides power change in Armenia, has also contributed to the “window of opportunity” for a change of paradigms. The role and influence of the EU and the US in this process, including in deterring potential military developments, will be dependent on the perception of them by the parties as non-partisan brokers, promotion of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan as independent subjects of international relations and consistency in support of democracy.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, Mediation, and Interdependence
Political Geography:
Russia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Nagorno-Karabakh

3. The Pashinyan Conundrum: Predictably Unpredictable, Consistently Inconsistent

Author:
Onnik Krikorian
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
Resolving the conflict in Karabakh requires a careful assessment of the roles of Russia, the EU, and the United States—states that have been involved as mediator, facilitator, and supporter of the peace process, respectively. Moscow believes two things: one, that the EU and the U.S. are hoping to edge Russia out of the region; and two, that there is a particular interest in removing the Russian peacekeeping contingent from Karabakh when its first and possibly last five-year term expires at the end of 2025. Ultimately, finding a solution to the conflict over Karabakh and the broader Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict will require a delicate balancing act among the various stakeholders involved, with a focus on promoting peace, stability, and security in the region. But in the absence of such an environment, there are concerns that competition between the actors involved could disrupt what progress has reportedly been made to date. Regardless of that rivalry, however, it should be remembered that any peace deal will be signed by the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders—and nobody else. But here, too, the situation is unclear. Despite Azerbaijan’s decisive victory over Armenia in the 2020 Karabakh war, a final peace treaty remains elusive nearly two and a half years after the trilateral Armenia-Azerbaijan-Russia ceasefire statement was announced on 10 November 2020.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, European Union, Conflict, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
Russia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, South Caucasus, United States of America, and Nagorno-Karabakh

4. Heydar Aliyev As Architect and Founder

Author:
M. Hakan Yavuz
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
There is a story that Charles de Gaulle one day declared to Finance Minister Antoine Pinay, “the facts may prove me wrong, but history will prove me right,” to which Pinay replied, “but, mon Général, I thought history was written with facts.” At the centenary of his birth, Heydar Aliyev’s impact on Azerbaijani’s post-Soviet destiny has emerged as holistic, even if it is not yet fully appreciated in some part of the globe. Heydar Aliyev, like Charles de Gaulle, rescued his nation from collapse, reconstituted the state’s institutions, and set the course for his country to become aware of its potential. He crafted present-day Azerbaijan and its institutions, along with the memory and culture of his nation’s rise to independence. The formation of the Second Republic and Azerbaijan’s eventual military victory in the 2020 Second Karabakh War strategically bookmark Heydar Aliyev’s national accomplishment and legacy. At its center stands the economic renewal of the country and the effectual redrawing of the strategic map of the Silk Road region. Similar to how de Gaulle had to address the divisive war in Algeria, Aliyev had to deal with the First Karabakh War. He astutely found the breathing space he needed to revamp the nation’s institutional infrastructure. In the early 1990s, ordinary Azerbaijanis were not yet adequately prepared to fight and win against Armenian military power (supported actively by Russia), as the concerns of achieving economic viability in a newly independent republic were manifestly a more urgent priority. Aliyev sought to find the ideal path for saving his country’s face and pride in ending the First Karabakh War without making the sorts of concessions to the Armenian side that would humiliate and demoralize the Azerbaijani people. This was a difficult yet courageous decision. To extend the time and space for ensuring Azerbaijan’s nascent yet fragile state as an independent republic, he found a narrow path to end that war without a conclusive peace agreement by negotiating a ceasefire that would not cede Azerbaijan’s rightful claim to its territorial integrity. His unwavering stance that Azerbaijan could only be whole with all of its Karabakh territory included proved prescient—as the facts of history have sustained.
Topic:
History, Leadership, Conflict, and Post-Soviet Space
Political Geography:
Azerbaijan and South Caucasus

5. Sustainable Agriculture in Aghali: The Smart Village Concept in the Great Return to Karabakh

Author:
Nazrin Baghirova
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
On 31 December 2022, Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev delivered his annual televised address on the occasion of the Day of Solidarity of World Azerbaijanis and the New Year. One of his formulations serves as the political background to this essay: “the Great Return program is being successfully implemented. […] I am confident that hundreds of thousands of former displaced persons will return to their homeland in the nearest future.” The Great Return is a flagship state project to repopulate and rejuvenate the Karabakh and East Zangezur Economic Regions, which were liberated by Azerbaijan in 2020 thanks to its victory in the Second Karabakh War. This essay will examine how repatriated farmers can optimally utilize agricultural lands and water, gain access to equipment, fertilizers, and pesticides, and examine how they can gain access to agricultural retail markets thanks to technological innovation. The essay will focus on a pilot project being implemented in one part of Azerbaijan’s liberated lands, namely the Zangilan district, which is one of the five districts that since the administrative reforms of July 2021 belongs the East Zangezur Economic Region. A milestone was achieved on 27 May 2022, when Aliyev participated in the official opening of a “smart village” project in the village of Aghali located in Zangilan (the quotation that serves as this essay’s epigraph was pronounced by the president on that occasion). This ceremony marked the completion of the first stage of a green resettlement project that included 200 fully constructed residential buildings, the introduction of public services (ASAN services, banks, post office, hospital), a “smart” secondary school with a capacity for 360 pupils, a “smart” kindergarten for 60 children, modern infrastructure, a high-speed internet connection, and the Gilmed sewing factory. The state has also allotted agricultural fields to each household. (In the next phase of the project, the state plans to further expand the village and build 150 more homes, including two- and three-story apartment buildings.)
Topic:
Agriculture, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, Resettlement, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
Armenia, Azerbaijan, South Caucasus, and Nagorno-Karabakh

6. The Iceberg Melted: The Enhanced Visibility of Strategic Ties Between Israel and Azerbaijan

Author:
Arthur Lenk
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
The strategic depth of the relationship between the State of Israel and the Republic of Azerbaijan may surprise many people. Each has found a discreet partner in the other that offers key, unique resources allowing both to respond successfully to some of their primary geopolitical challenges. The two small countries are both squeezed in complicated, unpeaceful neighborhoods; both have long-term simmering conflicts with challenging neighbors; and both see themselves as rational actors often needing to deal with unfair media and diplomatic treatment. They have quietly come together to partner in core areas like energy and security over a now significant amount of time while widening their cooperation to spheres like tourism, education, and investing in startups. The recent announcement that Azerbaijan will open an embassy in Israel removed one of the few outstanding limitations to consolidating fully the deep, strategic relationship between the two countries. Baku’s decision was warmly welcomed by Israel’s then Prime Minister Yair Lapid and President Isaac Herzog, together with public figures and foreign policy experts across the political divide in Israel. Azerbaijan’s parliament passed legislation on 18 November 2022 to approve funding for embassies in Israel, Albania, and Kenya along with a representative diplomatic office in Palestine, which was signed by President Ilham Aliyev into law a few days later. It is expected that the new embassy will be inaugurated in Tel Aviv some time in 2023.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Azerbaijan, and South Caucasus

7. Defining Strategic Direction: Azerbaijan and the New Regional Geopolitical Configuration

Author:
Gulshan Pashayeva
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
More than two years have passed since the Second Karabakh War ended and the 10 November 2020 tripartite statement was signed. This essay presents the main priority areas for Azerbaijan of the initial phase of the post-conflict period for which the specific work is currently underway. It then examines the impact of the evolving regional geopolitical landscape to the ongoing normalization process between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Territorial Disputes, Geopolitics, Conflict, and Normalization
Political Geography:
Armenia, Azerbaijan, South Caucasus, and Nagorno-Karabakh

8. Thе Onе-Day War: Analyzing how Azеrbaijan's control of Karabakh is rеshaping gеopolitical equilibrium in thе South Caucasus

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
On Sеptеmbеr 19, 2023, Azеrbaijani forcеs launchеd a nеw military campaign against thе sеparatist rеgion of Nagorno-Karabakh, citing countеr-tеrrorism as a prеtеxt following thе dеaths of sеvеral of its soldiеrs in thе arеa. This action has raised concerns about thе potential for a rеnеwеd all-out war in thе South Caucasus. Azеrbaijan dеclarеd complеtе control ovеr thе rеgion just onе day after commеncing its military opеration. This dеvеlopmеnt has promptеd significant spеculation about its potential rеpеrcussions on thе gеopolitical balancе in thе rеgion.
Topic:
Territorial Disputes, Geopolitics, Conflict, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
Armenia, Azerbaijan, South Caucasus, and Nagorno-Karabakh

9. The End of the Karabakh Conflict: Winners, Losers and New Expectations

Author:
Shota Utiashvili, Alex Petriashvili, Zurab Batiashvili, and Kakha Gogolashvili
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
In this publication, which includes four expert opinion papers, Rondeli Foundation fellows Shota Utiashvili, Alex Petriashvili, Zurab Batiashvili, and Kakha Gogolashvili analyze the geopolitical consequences of the end of the Karabakh conflict as well as the positions and expectations of two South Caucasian countries and several external actors.
Topic:
Territorial Disputes, Geopolitics, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, South Caucasus, and Nagorno-Karabakh

10. Strategic Importance of the Ganja Gap in the New Security Scenario

Author:
Miguel Borja Bernabé-crespo and Alejandro Vallına Rodríguez
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Novus Orbis: Journal of Politics & International Relations
Institution:
Department of International Relations, Karadeniz Technical University
Abstract:
The Ganja gap is the border space comprised between Azerbaijan and Georgia. This connection between these two countries represents a strategic zone due to the proximity of another axis of allies: Armenia and Russia, which are separated by the Ganja gap. Moreover, Ganja is the strategic path from Europe and the Black Sea to the Caspian Sea and Central Asia, which also entails not only commercial and military transits but also the connection of the Turkic world between Türkiye and Central Asia. The complex relations of the actors surrounding the Ganja gap warn this space of a potential conflict: the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) membership of Türkiye, its close relations to Azerbaijan, the aspirations of Georgia to become a member of this alliance, opposed to Russia’s intention to control its near abroad. Because of this, the control of this space represents a potential space of clash between military alliances. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has changed the conception of the European Security scenario, leading Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia to apply for European Union (EU) membership, being the former two official candidates, changing EU relations with Türkiye and creating some grey zones in the post-Soviet space. These grey zones are blurry spaces where peace is not guaranteed though there is no war situation – but could potentially evolve as such, as it happened in Ukraine in recent years. This contribution analyses the Ganja gap: its territory, and geopolitical context and discusses the new security scenario and the grey zone concept. It finally delivers some conclusions aiming to provide security by emphasising the strategic location of Ganja Gap and its implications for the whole region.
Topic:
Security, International Security, Conflict, and Gray Zone
Political Geography:
Caucasus, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Ganja Gap