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71. The role of Nagorno-Karabakh in the shaping of Armenian and Azeri identity

Author:
Ricardo Juan Torres
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI)
Abstract:
The paper discusses the effect of the 19th century rebirth of Armenian nationalism in the Ottoman or Western Armenia and Russian or Eastern Armenia and that of Azeri nationalism in Russian Azerbaijan with its ramifications in Iran and Ottoman Turkey on the formation of Armenian and Azeri identity from the late 1800s to the present and the key role of Nagorno-Karabakh - called Artsakh by the Armenians - from the beginning of the 20th century, using the theories of Anthony D. Smith.
Topic:
Nationalism, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, and Identity
Political Geography:
Caucasus, Eastern Europe, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Nagorno-Karabakh

72. Multi-dimensional assessment of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War

Author:
Andrius Bivainis
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
This article contains an assessment of the last war in the Southern Caucasus, referring to it as the second Nagorno–Karabakh war. The assessment is concentrated on the military capabilities built up prior to the major escalation of this war and operational features identified during the battles. The assessment uses analytic categories of processed information and initiatives that sovereign actors took during decision cycles and the conduct of military campaigns. Those analytic categories are named dimensions, with the strategic and military dimensions being the most important for this analysis. The key findings of this article suggest that additional dimensions could be used in researching the complex conditions of the war, which might have a continuous impact even outside the Southern Caucasus. The review of initiatives at the strategic dimension suggested that the built-up of two competing security policy fractions in the South Caucasus was an influential factor. The assessment of the military dimension of that war provided insights regarding the tactical choices of both adversaries. That assessment revealed some significant differences in how the campaign was conducted on both sides. Further complex tensions in the region are expected as national political decisions will drive strategic choices and drive the development of military capabilities. Given the fact that both countries were short of a consensus-based peace deal and Russia sent in peacekeeping forces, further developments in the political and strategic dimensions of this war saga should be expected.
Topic:
Science and Technology, War, Territorial Disputes, Quantitative, and Military
Political Geography:
Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Nagorno-Karabakh

73. The Sky is the Limit: The Azerbaijan-Israel-Türkiye Trio and the Greater Middle East

Author:
Rusif Huseynov
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In our latest issue of Turkeyscope, the director of Azerbaijan's Topchubashov Center, Rusif Huseynov writes on the existing and potential security and economic cooperation between Israel and Azerbaijan, as well as the strategic link both countries share with Turkey.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Bilateral Relations, and Cooperation
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Azerbaijan

74. Peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia: Who will economically win?

Author:
Emin Mammadov and Nigar Islamli
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
Following the recent September escalations along the Azerbaijan and Armenian border, in a way towards achieving a sustainable peace deal and long-lasting security in the Caucasus, the quadrilateral meeting in pragmatic terms is deemed to play a significant role in this vein putting an end to hostilities. The President of Azerbaijan and the Prime Minister of Armenia met in Prague on 6 October 2022 in the margins of the first European Political Community at the invitation of the President of the French Republic and the President of the European Council. Both sides reiterated their commitment to the Charter of the United Nations and the Alma Ata 1991 Declaration through which both recognize each other’s territorial integrity and sovereignty which will act as a legal basis for the work of the border delimitation commissions.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Sovereignty, Treaties and Agreements, Territorial Disputes, and Borders
Political Geography:
Caucasus, Armenia, and Azerbaijan

75. Assessment of Initial Impacts of Western Sanctions against Russia: Effects for Azerbaijani Economy

Author:
Emin Mammadov
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
Repercussions of the western sanctions on the Russian economy increasingly arise that negatively affect the total economic structure. National GDP shrank by 4.3% in the first quarter of the current year. As forecasted by the Russian Central Bank following the exposure to sanctions, a 7 percent reduction in the GDP could be expected in the third quarter. Russian ruble lost its value by 7 percent against the dollar in less than a month which even resulted in an inevitable devaluation in the official exchange rate.
Topic:
Sanctions, Economy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia and Azerbaijan

76. Assessment of Impact of COVID-19 on SMEs in Azerbaijan: Consequences and Perspectives

Author:
Narmina Gasimova
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
COVID-19 had a considerable negative impact on the economy of Azerbaijan, with SMEs being one of the major victims from the economic perspective. Economic sectors were affected to a different extent by the pandemic and lockdown measures. As a result of lockdown measures, many SMEs closed their operations with their employers not being paid or left without pay. Although the government provided essential support to small and medium-sized businesses, the share of closed businesses was high. Over two years since the beginning of the pandemic, a measures toward the improvement of the business environment was done. The share of operating and newly created SMEs increased along with legislative incentives adopted for their development.
Topic:
Economy, Public Health, COVID-19, and Lockdown Policies
Political Geography:
Azerbaijan and Caspian Sea

77. Amendments in the 2022 State Budget of Azerbaijan: Impacts and Perspectives

Author:
Nigar Islamli
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
After the global pandemic, rising global demand, as well as the impact of geopolitical and military tensions, have led to a significant rise in the prices of major energy carriers in recent years. In the context of this pandemic, the recession in the country's economy in 2020 was replaced by the process of rapid economic recovery in 2021. The significant increase in oil prices in Azerbaijan had a positive effect on the nominal amount of GDP, although the increase in nominal GDP was mainly due to the oil sector, the real growth was possible almost due to non-oil sectors. The economic situation for the past period of the current year, the medium-term socio-economic forecast indicators, and the performance of budget revenues more than expected made it necessary to revise the state budget for 2022.
Topic:
Oil, Budget, GDP, Economy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Azerbaijan

78. The Implications of the Third Trilateral Meeting in Brussels

Author:
Emin Mammadov
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
In a way towards a productive peace-building process, discussing the situation in South Caucasus and deepening economic cooperation between the EU and both countries, on May 23 President of the European Council Charles Michel hosted the President of Azerbaijan: Ilham Aliyev and Prime Minister of Armenia: Nikol Pashinyan. Following the 6 April meeting, which is called by the President Ilham Aliyev as a starting point in the normalization of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the content of the recent meeting is once more characterized by its promising and necessary provisions that will serve the interests of Azerbaijan and development of the region more broadly.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe, Caucasus, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Brussels

79. The Azerbaijani economy in the first four months of 2022: İndependent View

Author:
CESD Research Team
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
CESD – the Center for Economic and Social Development – concluded its macro-economic survey results for the first four months of 2022. According to the State Statistic Committee of Azerbaijan, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by 7.2 % in January-April 2022 compared with the same period of previous year: The CESD’s figure for the same period was 6.5 %.
Topic:
Development, GDP, Economy, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
Azerbaijan

80. Azerbaijani Gas Export to Europe: What Advantages Are There?

Author:
CESD Research Team
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
Following Russia's decision to restrict natural gas exports to Poland and Bulgaria, energy security has become a priority in the European Union. Although the ancient continent is trying to increase gas imports from alternative sources, Gazprom is still trying to maintain its dominance in Europe for some time. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan continues to increase natural gas production. In the first quarter of this year, Azerbaijan produced 11.8 billion cubic meters of natural gas. 3.5 billion cubic meters of gas were produced from ACG, 6.4 billion cubic meters from Shah Deniz, and 1.9 billion cubic meters from SOCAR. During that period, gas exports amounted to 5.9 billion cubic meters. 2.2 billion cubic meters of gas were exported to Turkey, 2.6 billion cubic meters to Europe, and 1.1 billion cubic meters to Georgia. More than 4 billion cubic meters of gas were transported to Turkey via TANAP during this period.
Topic:
European Union, Gas, Exports, Russia-Ukraine War, and Energy Sector
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Poland, Azerbaijan, and Bulgaria