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52. Can Armenia succeed in aligning with thе Wеst at the expense of Russia?
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 11-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- Armenia's foreign policy has taken a nеw direction following Azеrbaijan’s military attack on Armenian tеrritory on Sеptеmbеr 19, 2023. This attack resulted in Azerbaijan gaining complеtе control over thе disputеd Nagorno-Karabakh rеgion. As a result, Armеnia is now shifting its focus toward bolstеring tiеs with thе Wеst, potеntially jeopardizing its longstanding alliancе with Russia. This shift raises questions about Russia's futurе influеncе in the Caucasus region and Yеrеvan's ability to genuinely develop stronger rеlations with thе Wеst, possibly undеrcutting its tiеs with Russia in thе current gеopolitical landscapе.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Armed Conflict, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Armenia, Azerbaijan, South Caucasus, and Nagorno-Karabakh
53. The End of the Karabakh Conflict: Winners, Losers and New Expectations
- Author:
- Shota Utiashvili, Alex Petriashvili, Zurab Batiashvili, and Kakha Gogolashvili
- Publication Date:
- 12-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
- Abstract:
- In this publication, which includes four expert opinion papers, Rondeli Foundation fellows Shota Utiashvili, Alex Petriashvili, Zurab Batiashvili, and Kakha Gogolashvili analyze the geopolitical consequences of the end of the Karabakh conflict as well as the positions and expectations of two South Caucasian countries and several external actors.
- Topic:
- Territorial Disputes, Geopolitics, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, South Caucasus, and Nagorno-Karabakh
54. Azerbaijan and Armenia: War Looms as Prospects for Negotiated Settlement Recede
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 09-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Due to their failure to resolve disputes through negotiations, tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia have escalated, potentially to the point of a new war and even armed conflict between Iran and Turkey.
- Topic:
- Territorial Disputes, Negotiation, and Armed Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Turkey, Caucasus, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Nagorno-Karabakh
55. The Lobbying Battle for Nagorno-Karabakh
- Author:
- Ben Freeman and Artin DerSimonian
- Publication Date:
- 12-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
- Abstract:
- Long before Azerbaijani forces took the Nagorno-Karabakh region by force in September — displacing 100,000 Karabakh Armenians in an act that’s been described as ethnic cleansing — Azerbaijan and Armenia were waging a furious lobbying and influence battle in Washington. A closer examination of the countries’ respective attempts to influence U.S. policymakers before the Second and Third Nagorno-Karabakh Wars provides critical context for understanding Washington’s muted reaction to Azerbaijan’s recent aggression, seemingly at odds with the strong moral position U.S. officials have taken over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Azerbaijan has spent years pursuing a course of “caviar diplomacy” in our nation’s capital: using the authoritarian petrostates’ wealth to court officials, journalists, and scholars. Since 2015, the government of Azerbaijan has spent just over $7 million on lobbying and public relations firms registered under the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA). Azerbaijan’s agents — like BGR Government Affairs — have conducted vigorous advocacy for Baku’s interests, including continued military assistance to Azerbaijan following the Second Nagorno-Karabakh war in 2020. Azerbaijan’s influence in the U.S. has also been aided considerably by Israel; Baku boasts powerful American-Israeli advocates like Ezra Friedlander as registered lobbyists for its interests. And this only constitutes what’s publicly known which, given Azerbaijan’s history, is likely just the tip of the iceberg. As the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP) has painstakingly documented, the Azerbaijan government has a history of laundering its influence in Europe and the U.S. Azerbaijan’s extensive influence efforts in the U.S. stand in stark contrast to those of the Armenian interests which, until earlier this year, had not had a FARA registered lobbying or public relations firm on their payroll since 2020. Armenia has traditionally relied on its extensive diaspora to garner influence in the West, with repeated successes including a boycott of lobbying and PR firms working for Azerbaijan and President Biden’s recognition of the Armenian genocide. But as the negligible U.S. response to Azerbaijan’s use of military force in Nagorno-Karabakh shows, Washington’s perceived strategic interests continue to trump Armenians’ concerns. As the negligible U.S. response to Azerbaijan’s use of military force in Nagorno-Karabakh shows, Washington’s perceived strategic interests continue to trump Armenians’ concerns. U.S. officials’ overly-cautious and restrained reaction to the lightning offensive against Nagorno-Karabakh and the resulting mass exodus of Armenians from the region seems to reflect a stalemate in the lobbying and influence battle the two countries have been waging in the U.S; it may also be a product of the selective approach to human rights within U.S. foreign policy. No matter how one weighs the precise causes, the effect remains the same: a country used military might to reclaim its territory during a negotiating process, faced little consequences from the U.S., and seems emboldened to continue its aggression in an already volatile region. Time will tell the dangers of that decision.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Territorial Disputes, Lobbying, and Foreign Influence
- Political Geography:
- Armenia, Azerbaijan, United States of America, and Nagorno-Karabakh
56. Fall 2023 edition of Contemporary Eurasia
- Author:
- Levon Hovsepyan
- Publication Date:
- 07-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Contemporary Eurasia
- Institution:
- Institute of Oriental Studies, National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Armenia
- Abstract:
- CONTENTS LILIT HARUTYUNYAN THE IMPACT OF THE SYRIAN CRISIS ON LEBANON: GEOPOLITICAL ASPECT (THE BEGINNING OF THE CONFLICT) ............................................................. 5 ZHAO DONGQIAN THE EVOLUTION, ACHIEVEMENTS, AND PROSPECTS OF THE CHINESE SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS THEORY ................................ 15 NAZELI NAVASARDYAN, TATEVIK MANUKYAN RESUMPTION OF THE KURDISH CARD IN IRANIAN-IRAQI RELATIONS: COMPLEX INTERPLAY, PRE-REFERENDUM REALITIES ........................... 31 ARTYOM TONOYAN, LIANA PETROSYAN THE MUSAVAT AZERBAIJAN POLICY TOWARDS KURDS: PARALLELS WITH POST-SOVIET AZERBAIJAN’S ETHNIC POLICY ............................... 46 KUANG-HO YEH THE IMPLEMENTATION MECHANISM, APPLICATION, AND DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS OF TURKEY’S DRONE STRATEGY ............ 63 INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE THE SYRIAN CRISIS AND THE KURDISH FACTOR: INTRA-KURDISH, REGIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL ASPECTS ............................................... 83
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Minorities, Geopolitics, Drones, International Relations Theory, Syrian War, and Kurds
- Political Geography:
- China, Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Asia, Azerbaijan, Lebanon, and Syria
57. A Development Approach to a Protracted IDP Situation: Lessons from Azerbaijan
- Author:
- Jennifer S. Wistrand
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal on Migration and Human Security
- Institution:
- Center for Migration Studies of New York
- Abstract:
- This article highlights the realities facing Azerbaijan’s internally displaced persons (IDPs), living in a state of protracted displacement. It argues that the World Bank’s development approach to the IDP population in Azerbaijan and to IDP populations elsewhere has likely done more for these populations’ long-term welfare and prospects than exclusively humanitarian approaches could have accomplished, even though displaced peoples have traditionally been presumed to be the responsibility of the humanitarian community. The article begins with a brief discussion of the differences between refugees and IDPs and between humanitarian and development approaches. It then outlines a history of the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the contested region of Nagorno-Karabakh which, in the early 1990s, produced upward of a half-million Azerbaijani IDPs. Next, the article discusses some of the realities (economic, social, and mental health, among others) that confronted Azerbaijan’s IDPs 15 years into their displacement. It focuses on a community of IDPs who lived in a temporary-turned-long-term “collective center” on the outskirts of Azerbaijan’s capital of Baku. Finally, the article discusses one of the World Bank’s projects in Azerbaijan with IDPs. The article concludes with policy recommendations on the way future scholars, practitioners, and policymakers should be trained to understand and approach IDPs. More broadly, it recommends that combined humanitarian and development approaches to IDP situations should become the norm. This seems imperative given that the number of IDPs displaced by conflict and violence world-wide has increased each year for more than a decade, while the ability of IDPs to avail themselves of traditional durable solutions has not kept pace.
- Topic:
- Development, Humanitarian Aid, Refugees, and Internally Displaced Persons (IDP)
- Political Geography:
- Central Asia, Azerbaijan, and Nagorno-Karabakh
58. Averting a New War between Armenia and Azerbaijan
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The European Union is sending monitors to Armenia’s border with Azerbaijan, so as to lessen the danger of renewed fighting between the two countries over Nagorno-Karabakh and other issues. Brussels must give the mission the means and mandate it will need to succeed.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Territorial Disputes, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Eurasia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Nagorno-Karabakh
59. Strategic Importance of the Ganja Gap in the New Security Scenario
- Author:
- Miguel Borja Bernabé-crespo and Alejandro Vallına Rodríguez
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Novus Orbis: Journal of Politics & International Relations
- Institution:
- Department of International Relations, Karadeniz Technical University
- Abstract:
- The Ganja gap is the border space comprised between Azerbaijan and Georgia. This connection between these two countries represents a strategic zone due to the proximity of another axis of allies: Armenia and Russia, which are separated by the Ganja gap. Moreover, Ganja is the strategic path from Europe and the Black Sea to the Caspian Sea and Central Asia, which also entails not only commercial and military transits but also the connection of the Turkic world between Türkiye and Central Asia. The complex relations of the actors surrounding the Ganja gap warn this space of a potential conflict: the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) membership of Türkiye, its close relations to Azerbaijan, the aspirations of Georgia to become a member of this alliance, opposed to Russia’s intention to control its near abroad. Because of this, the control of this space represents a potential space of clash between military alliances. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has changed the conception of the European Security scenario, leading Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia to apply for European Union (EU) membership, being the former two official candidates, changing EU relations with Türkiye and creating some grey zones in the post-Soviet space. These grey zones are blurry spaces where peace is not guaranteed though there is no war situation – but could potentially evolve as such, as it happened in Ukraine in recent years. This contribution analyses the Ganja gap: its territory, and geopolitical context and discusses the new security scenario and the grey zone concept. It finally delivers some conclusions aiming to provide security by emphasising the strategic location of Ganja Gap and its implications for the whole region.
- Topic:
- Security, International Security, Conflict, and Gray Zone
- Political Geography:
- Caucasus, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Ganja Gap
60. The Second Phase of the EU Southern Gas Corridor: Which role for Azerbaijan?
- Author:
- Marika Karagianni
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- The operation of the Southern Gas Corridor marks the first attempt of the EU to diversify its pipeline gas supplies and routes beyond Russia. The 2nd Phase of the Corridor, which involves the operation of several gas interconnectors in South Eastern Europe, is being promoted, while the EU is looking for additional supply sources, namely LNG. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, coupled with the intense energy crisis in Europe, has reinforced these trends. Field development in Azerbaijan and future prospects for LNG exports, primarily from the US, are discussed in this article as realistic options for alternative supply sources for Europe.
- Topic:
- Development, European Union, Gas, Exports, and Pipeline
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Central Asia, and Azerbaijan