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11. The Aras Corridor: Azerbaijan's Rationale Behind the Deal with Iran

Author:
Rahim Rahimov
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
Since the 2020 Second Karabakh War, Azerbaijan’s victory over Armenia and its subsequent push for the Zangezur Corridor, Baku, and Tehran have been embroiled in fierce waves of escalation. With the launch of construction works for the Aras Corridor as the purported replacement to the Zangezur Corridor, the two nations appear to have made a breakthrough, and a thaw can be seen in current bilateral relations. In lieu of Baku’s strong push for the Zangezur Corridor over the last three years, the change in direction triggers the immediate question as to why Azerbaijan agreed to the Aras Corridor deal with Tehran. In order to properly address this question, it is essential to distinguish Azerbaijan’s Zangezur Corridor project from its Zangezur discourse, which can otherwise lead to misunderstandings. The main reason for Baku’s concession to the Aras Corridor deal with Tehran and backtracking from the Zangezur Corridor is that Baku has achieved its objectives in the Zangezur discourse. Having achieved those objectives, the Zangezur Corridor alone, without the discourse, is of mere local importance to Azerbaijan. Yet the hype around it still persists, with the subsequent international reactions having made the topic somewhat toxic for Azerbaijan.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Territorial Disputes, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:
Iran, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Nagorno-Karabakh

12. Performing Diasporic Resistance: (Re)Claiming the Heritage Language

Author:
Shushan Karapetian
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
“All wars are fought twice, the first time on the battlefield, the second time in memory,” writes Pulitzer Prize-winning author Viet Thanh Nguyen.1 In the landscape of memory, language is the theater of war. Through language, we frame the narratives of our experiences and transmit those narratives for the historical record as individuals and collectives. The chronology and processes so profoundly articulated by Nguyen have merged in the recent decade such that combat on the physical battlefield does not necessarily precede the curation of narratives about the war. They now take place synchronously. Due to advances in digital media and communication technologies, the landscape, strategies, and potential combatants have outgrown geographic, physical, and temporal limitations. Civilians can now participate in military conflicts through digital and participatory warfare enabled by the hyperconnected battlefield of social media platforms. In parallel with actual fighting in combat zones and the official narratives of the states involved in war, new participatory modalities within a global digital battlefield are impacting the representation, perception, participa- tion, and memorialization of conflict. The mobilization of transnational human resources by diasporas can enlarge the scope of civilian participation in warfare, impacting war’s narration, cura- tion, and framing. In this current environment, language becomes the theater of war, not just within the post-combat landscape of memory, but also during combat—in the parallel digital battlefields of modern-day participatory warfare. It is, therefore, important to consider how language is viewed and used during war, particularly the heritage language of diasporan civilians. More specifically, we must assess the extent to which the heritage language is employed as both a symbolic and strategic tool in wartime transnational activism in processes through which diasporic identities are fashioned. In this essay, I examine the role of the Armenian language in the unprecedented transnational mobilization of Armenian communities across the globe during and after the 2020 Nagorno- Karabakh War.2 I argue that transnational actors (re)claimed the Armenian language as an act of resistance in the context of participatory warfare, which not only intensified the existing symbolic range of the Armenian language as a central identity marker, but also introduced a novel instrumental element for many Armenians.
Topic:
Diaspora, Language, Participation, Heritage, and Resistance
Political Geography:
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Global Focus, and Nagorno-Karabakh

13. A "Frozen Conflict" Boils Over: Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023 and Future Implications

Author:
Walter Landgraf and Nareg Seferian
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)
Abstract:
This report has two objectives: first, to present an account of the conflict with an emphasis on analytically useful categories and context up to the present, and second, to discuss local, regional, and global consequences of the latest developments of the dispute, including policy implications and recommendations.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Sovereignty, Territorial Disputes, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Nagorno-Karabakh

14. Are Azerbaijan and Armenia Heading to Peace?

Author:
Anna Borshchevskaya
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
New regional and international factors are creating conditions conducive to ending their decades-long conflict, with potentially important consequences for Iran, the Ukraine war, and Turkey. Against the backdrop of the Gaza war, the escalation of Iran and its proxies across the Middle East, and Russia’s war in Ukraine, the South Caucasus is quietly undergoing a profound transformation. Armenia and Azerbaijan are slowly moving towards signing a peace treaty. If they do, this outcome would have profound implications for the South Caucasus and Russia, Europe, and Iran. The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan is both ethnic and territorial and has spun for over thirty years. Specifically, the dispute is over Nagorno-Karabakh (or Artsakh as Armenians call it), internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan but until recently controlled by a breakaway separatist ethnic Armenian regime backed by the Armenian government. This is the longest-running conflict in the post-Soviet space, one of several so-called “frozen conflicts” on Russia’s periphery. In the last several years, observers periodically declared that a peace agreement between Baku and Yerevan was imminent, but it never materialised. However, there are several reasons why this time may be different.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, Territorial Disputes, Peacebuilding, and Frozen Conflict
Political Geography:
Eurasia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Nagorno-Karabakh

15. Proposal for a Regional Emergency Action Partnership (REAP) for Peace in the South Caucasus

Author:
Anar Ahmadov, Rusif Huseynov, Tatul Manaseryan, Arman Martirosyan, and Niko Orell
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Armenia and Azerbaijan, together with Georgia, are facing unprecedented challenges that arise from unfolding climate change and seismic risk in the South Caucasus. Placing considerable strain on economies, livelihoods, and government resources, these hazards can significantly worsen the complex geopolitical landscape and exacerbate unresolved political issues. The absence of structured and coordinated disaster response mechanisms can increase vulnerability and hamper effective crisis management, leading to avoidable loss of life, widespread suffering, and significant economic damage. We propose the establishment of a Regional Emergency Action Partnership (REAP) in the form of a coordinated binational disaster response system. This system could enable better preparation and facilitate effective responses to disasters that are likely to have an impact across borders, ultimately saving lives through joint efforts and resource mobilisation. Including Georgia would further strengthen such a crisis management system and solidify regional cooperation. Furthermore, this mechanism could help catalyse political rapprochement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Natural disasters and humanitarian crises can bring adversarial states together and unexpectedly foster collaboration. Greece and Türkiye have engaged in “earthquake diplomacy”, and despite the lack of diplomatic relations, Armenia and Türkiye briefly reopened their border to facilitate aid during the devastating 2023 Turkish earthquake (see Case Study 1 for more information). This rare example of earthquake diplomacy demonstrates how countries in seismically active regions can share common threats and opportunities for cooperation in their disaster responses. Similarly, Israel, Jordan, and Palestine have conducted joint disaster-response exercises involving 400 firefighters, medical personnel, and first responders, and the United States and Western states extended considerable support to the Soviet Union in the aftermath of the 1988 Armenian earthquake.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Natural Disasters, Partnerships, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
Eurasia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and South Caucasus

16. Enhancing Prospects for Peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan through Joint Climate Change and Energy Security Action

Author:
Anar Ahmadov, Agha Bayramov, Tatul Manaseryan, and Arman Martirosyan
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
This Policy Brief outlines practical ways in which environmental and energy cooperation between Armenia and Azerbaijan could foster regional stability and peace amid the looming impacts of climate change. Collaboration on shared resources could mitigate the negative impacts of cross-border environmental challenges while fostering mutual trust, thereby reducing the risk of future conflicts. Joint efforts to produce and transmit renewable and non-renewable energy resources could further promote regional stability by strengthening energy security and deepening economic interconnectivity. Joint action on climate change is becoming increasingly urgent in the South Caucasus, especially between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Both countries face serious economic, social, and political risks from climate impacts, including rising temperatures, reduced precipitation, desertification, extreme weather, water scarcity, and the spread of diseases. Armenia and Azerbaijan are also likely to face challenges affecting energy dependence and security, although in different ways. These challenges are likely to strain resources, heighten tensions, and increase the potential for conflict within and between these two nations. To mitigate climate change impacts, enhance energy security, and reduce the risk of conflict, cooperation is crucial, particularly as Armenia and Azerbaijan navigate a fragile post-conflict environment. The Policy Brief proposes five actionable policy options to promote environmental and energy cooperation. Their implementation would create platforms for government representatives, experts, and civil society members and organisations to jointly study, deliberate, and negotiate through technical and economic communication channels, fostering mutual understanding, confidence building, and reconciliation through shared problem solving. After discussing these policy options, the Policy Brief concludes by summarising the key take-aways from this important discussion.
Topic:
Civil Society, Climate Change, Regional Cooperation, and Energy Security
Political Geography:
Armenia, Azerbaijan, and South Caucasus

17. Prospects for the Normalisation of Turkish-Armenian Relations Improving

Author:
Aleksandra Maria Spancerska and Wojciech Wojtasiewicz
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The fifth round of negotiations between Türkiye and Armenia, held on 30 July, offers hope for an acceleration of the normalisation of their relations, including the opening of borders between the countries. However, the success of the negotiations depends on the settlement of Armenia’s relations with Azerbaijan. Such an agreement would unblock transport routes in the South Caucasus region, as well as increase the presence of the EU and Poland in the region.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Borders, Negotiation, Transportation, Normalization, and Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Poland, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and South Caucasus

18. Smart Cities in Postwar Karabakh: Comparative Insights from the Balkans

Author:
Orkhan Nadirov, Vusal Mammadrzayev, and Bruce Dehning
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
The development of a Smart City concept is essential for many devastated regions including Karabakh. While traditional methods typically address basic infrastructure repairs, implementing smart city solutions can promote long-term sustainability and enhance the well-being of individuals affected by war. The Smart City concept is viewed as a promising solution for challenges in postwar regions, and scholars argue that it effectively aids in developing post-conflict zones. This approach relies on the concept that it enhances emergency forecasting and planning, assesses disasters, and effectively manages and shares geographic information. Failure to implement smart city initiatives in postwar zones could significantly delay recovery efforts and sustainable development, hinder economic growth, and diminish resilience against future disasters. This paper examines the smart city concept as a vital strategy for the Karabakh region. It draws on lessons from the post-conflict Western Balkans, highlighting the key challenges these regions encountered in developing smart cities and, thus, aims to provide insights for the Azerbaijani government to learn from their experiences.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Smart Cities, and Post-Conflict
Political Geography:
Eurasia, Azerbaijan, Balkans, South Caucasus, and Nagorno-Karabakh

19. Green Infrastructure Development in Karabakh

Author:
Inara Yagubova and Samra Talishinskaya-Abbasova
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
I nfrastructure plays an essential role in addressing societal needs and climate change policies. The methods and materials used during construction can have an impact (positive and negative) on both climate change mitigation and adaptation as well as in engineering a more inclusive society. There is a noticeable shift towards cleaner and sustainable infrastructure worldwide, as countries aim to move closer to fulfilling their net-zero emissions pledges. To achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, an estimated $139 trillion investment in infrastructure will be needed worldwide. The global infrastructure business has enormous growth potential. By 2050, around 75 percent of infrastructure across the globe will be under construction. This growth is likely to be accompanied by a spike in the global green infrastructure market, which is predicted to reach €10 trillion by 2030. The fact that infrastructure accounts for 79 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions highlights the importance of investing in green infrastructure worldwide.
Topic:
Climate Change, Infrastructure, Carbon Emissions, and Mitigation
Political Geography:
Eurasia, Azerbaijan, South Caucasus, and Nagorno-Karabakh

20. Managing Investments in Urban Areas: The Case of Azerbaijani Cities

Author:
Shahnaz Badalova
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
Urban areas in Azerbaijan are experiencing rapid growth and development, fueled by a combination of natural resource wealth, strategic geographic location, and economic reforms. In cities such as Baku, Ganja, and Sumgayit, significant investments have been made in infrastructure, housing construction, and industry. However, effectively managing these investments to achieve sustainable urban development remains a critical challenge. This article examines the policies and strategies for investment management in Azerbaijani cities, learning from both successes and ongoing challenges.
Topic:
Development, Natural Resources, Investment, Urban, and Cities
Political Geography:
Eurasia, Azerbaijan, and South Caucasus