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11. Structural Change, Income Distribution and Unemployment Related to COVID-19: An Agent-based Model

Author:
Branimir Jovanovic, Michael Landesmann, Oliver Reiter, and Torben Schütz
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
We study the distributional consequences of COVID-19 by using a stock-flow consistent agent-based model that captures some of the aspects of pandemic-related lockdowns. In particular, the model distinguishes between ‘essential’ and ‘non-essential’ industries, between jobs that can be done from home and jobs that must be carried out on site, and takes into account that firms need to hire a certain amount of overhead labour. Allowing for government-financed short-time working schemes and loan guarantees, we find that these policies significantly reduce the rise in firm liquidations and income inequality (the ‘Keynesian’ result). However, we also find that the absence of government policies leads to higher levels of productivity and GDP in the aftermath of the crisis, as it means that more of the less productive firms face liquidation during lockdowns (the ‘Schumpeterian’ result). The last finding must be taken with adequate caution as our model is designed to describe the short run, while statements about the long run would require the inclusion of additional features such as technological progress and the entry of new firms.
Topic:
Income Inequality, Macroeconomics, Unemployment, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe and Austria

12. Employment Effects of Offshoring, Technological Change and Migration in a Group of Western European Economies: Impact on Different Occupations

Author:
Michael Landesmann and Sandra Leitner
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
This paper estimates conditional demand models to examine the impact of offshoring, technological change, and migration on the labour demand of native workers differentiated by four different types of occupational groups: managers/professionals, clerical workers, craft (skilled) workers and manual workers. The analysis is conducted for an unbalanced panel of five economies Austria, Belgium, France, Spain, and Switzerland covering the period 2005-2018. Our results point to important and occupation-specific effects: offshoring seems to have beneficial employment effects for native craft workers in this set of economies, while negative effects for native manual workers across a wide set of industries (including manufacturing and services industries) and managers/professionals in manufacturing. Furthermore, there are important distinctions whether offshoring occurs in other advanced economies, in the EU13 or in developing countries. The analysis of the impact of technological change shows the strong positive impact which the additional IT equipment has on most occupational groups of native workers (with the exception of manual workers), while robotisation in manufacturing showed strongly negative impacts on the employment of all groups of workers and especially of craft workers. Increasing immigrant shares in the work forces showed strongly negative impacts on native workers – however, considering only the partial substitution effects and not including the potential for productivity and demand effects – and this is mostly accounted for by immigration from low- to medium-income source countries.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Migration, Labor Issues, Immigration, Foreign Direct Investment, Employment, Competition, Income Distribution, and Offshoring
Political Geography:
Europe, France, Belgium, Spain, Switzerland, and Austria

13. Factsheet: Vienna Forum on Countering Segregation and Extremism in the Context of Integration

Author:
Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
The Vienna Forum on Countering Segregation and Extremism in the Context of Integration was initiated by Austrian Minister of Women and Integration Susanne Raab (ÖVP) to make Vienna “a center in the fight against political Islam.” Eleven European countries are part of the conference. Once a year, the forum brings together ministers and bureaucrats from several European countries alongside hundreds of terrorism and deradicalization experts, some of whom are known to advocate for policies that criminalize Muslim civil society.
Topic:
Islamophobia, Integration, Regional Organizations, and Susanne Raab
Political Geography:
Europe and Austria

14. Factsheet: Manfred Weber

Author:
Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Manfred Weber is a German politician who has served as President of the European People’s Party (EPP) since 2022, and as Leader of the EPP Group in the European Parliament since 2014. He has been a Member of the European Parliament (MEP) from Germany since 2004. He is a member of the Christian Social Union in Bavaria (CSU), which is a member of the EPP. Weber has made statements alleging that Muslims and Islam are a threat to European culture.
Topic:
European Union, Islamophobia, Catholic Church, Xenophobia, Christian Social Union, and European People's Party (EPP)
Political Geography:
Europe, Germany, and Austria

15. Factsheet: Nina Scholz

Author:
Nina Scholz
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Nina Scholz is a German political commentator and writer on Islamism based in Vienna, Austria. Scholz is often presented as an expert on Islam and Islamism by the Austrian media and policy circles. She produces many texts with Heiko Heinisch, with whom she served as an expert for Operation Luxor, an unlawful raid targeting the homes of 60 prominent Austrian Muslims, carried out by the Austrian government in 2020.
Topic:
Domestic Politics, Islamophobia, and Islamism
Political Geography:
Europe, Germany, and Austria

16. Selected Areas of Terrorism Threats with Relevance for Austria and the EU

Author:
Daniela Pisoiu and Annika Scharnagl
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
The policy analysis highlights the interconnectedness of right-wing extremist groups in the United States and Europe, the connection between populist parties and right-wing extremist organizations in Scandinavia and looks at terrorism in the Sahel region. It discusses the emergence of groups like Atomwaffen Division (AWD) and their affiliates in various countries, including Germany and Austria. Recent arrests and crackdowns reveal the presence of sympathizers and potential threats. The policy analysis emphasizes the need for vigilance, given the global nature of extremist ideologies and the potential for further incidents. Furthermore, the analysis explores the rise of right-wing populist parties in Scandinavian countries, highlighting their anti-immigration stances. It discusses instances where politicians have associated with neo-Nazi groups, raising concerns about extremist ties within these parties. The policy analysis underscores the implications of such connections for both politics and societal acceptance of right-wing extremist groups. In addition, the Sahel region is identified as a global epicenter of terrorism, marked by coups and increasing violence. The analysis highlights the challenges faced by governments in the region, including terrorism-related deaths, climate change, food insecurity, and population growth. It notes the shift of attacks from the Chad-Niger-Cameroon border to Mali-Burkina Faso-Niger, presenting a growing concern. The policy analysis also mentions recent activities of Boko Haram and other ISIS affiliates in the region. In conclusion, the analysis emphasizes that Austria must consider both domestic and global factors in addressing the evolving terrorism landscape. The interconnected nature of extremism requires a comprehensive approach.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, European Union, and Far Right
Political Geography:
Europe and Austria

17. The Labour Market Entry and Integration of Refugees and Other Migrants in Austria

Author:
Stefan Jestl and Maryna Tverdostup
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
This paper analyses the labour market entry of refugees and other (non-humanitarian) migrants originating from middle- and low-income non-European countries that arrived in Austria in 2014-2016. Specifically, we analyse factors that shaped the transition to and out of the first job in the Austrian labour market, document the characteristics of the first job and explore job stability in Austria. Even though refugees took longer to find a job, individual and household characteristics, as well as labour market indicators, are associated with the time between arrival and the first job in Austria, similar to other migrants. Refugees and other migrants also found similar job types as their entry jobs, which tended to be located in low-wage segments. The results, however, suggest that other migrants held their first job, on average, for a longer time than refugees. Although other migrants quit their first job relatively quickly when it was marginal employment, refugees tended to hold marginal jobs as long as full-time and part-time jobs. Finally, our results suggest that entry jobs with a higher quality in terms of working hours and wages (i.e. full-time jobs) tended to be linked with job stability, while entry jobs with a lower quality (i.e. marginal jobs) tended to be associated with job instability for both refugees and other migrants. The results of the paper showcase the importance of immediate access to various training and re-education programs for refugees to improve the quality of their entry jobs and their long-term prospects in the Austrian labour market.
Topic:
Migration, Refugees, Labor Market, Economic Integration, and Jobs
Political Geography:
Europe and Austria

18. Occupational Trajectories Among Refugees in Austria: The Role of Co-ethnic and Austrian Social Networks in Job Search

Author:
Sandra Leitner
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
This paper analyses occupational trajectories of refugees from their last job in the home country to their first and current jobs in Austria and the role of co-ethnic and Austrian social networks in job search, using data from a large-scale survey of recognised refugees from Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq and Iran who have predominantly come to Austria since 2010, thereby covering the strong refugee wave of 2015 2016. The results corroborate a U-shaped pattern, with a sharp initial occupational loss followed by a rather moderate occupational recovery. Although native social networks play no role for occupational changes, co-ethnic social networks – particularly when used as a stand-alone job search strategy – prove detrimental along the entire trajectory. However, co-ethnic social networks are beneficial if used in combination with the Austrian labour market service or NGOs. Some refugees prove particularly vulnerable, such as older refugees or highly educated refugees who undergo more pronounced initial occupational downgrading, with subsequent occupational upgrading either limited or absent.
Topic:
Migration, Refugees, Integration, Social Capital, and Labor Market
Political Geography:
Europe and Austria

19. Development of Mental Distress of Refugees in Austria During their Economic and Social Integration in 2017-2022

Author:
Sebastian Leitner
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
Refugees are more likely to develop mental diseases as most of them have been exposed to potentially traumatic events and fundamental stressors in their home countries, during migration and after resettling in the host countries. This diminishes their prospects for social and economic integration, which also may have detrimental effects on their mental health. We examine the prevalence of mental disorders in the refugee population from Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran and Syria who arrived in Austria recently, drawing on data from four waves of the FIMAS refugee survey project. Interviews were conducted between December 2017 and April 2022 in Austria, with a specific focus on Vienna, Salzburg, Graz, Linz and Innsbruck. We found a high share of refugees (31% in 2017/2018, declining to 26% in 2022) who showed moderate or severe levels of mental distress. Women were found to have a significantly higher risk of mental illness. We also investigate the effects of mediators on mental health, applying pooled and panel regression model. A positive association was found, for example, in the cases of discrimination experienced in Austria and obviously potentially traumatic events experienced during migration. Negative correlations were detected for certain mitigating factors that foster resilience, such as proficiency in the German language, living in the same household with one’s partner and children, being employed, having more supportive relationships, and being more satisfied with the housing situation.
Topic:
Refugees, Mental Health, Integration, Labor Market, and Social Integration
Political Geography:
Europe and Austria

20. Labour Market Integration Programmes for Refugees in Austria: Do they Really Work and for Whom?

Author:
Isilda Mara
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
In this study, we evaluate the effectiveness of the participation of refugees in integration programmes intended to help them gain employment. The specific programmes considered are the Competence Check programme and the Integration Year programme that were introduced in Austria around the time of the 2015 crisis, when refugees poured from the Middle East into the EU. The study is based on the fourth and fifth waves of a survey (FIMAS) of refugees from Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran and Syria in Austria, and it uses matching models to evaluate the effects on employment of participation in those two programmes. More specifically, it applies multivariate matching methods that ensure better balancing properties between the control and the treated groups. We find especially positive effects of the programmes on the employability of women, the poorly educated, younger and older age cohorts. These programmes thus seem to work specifically for those that find themselves in a more vulnerable labour market situation.
Topic:
Refugees, Integration, Labor Market, and Matching Methods
Political Geography:
Europe and Austria