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11. The Trans-Pacific Partnership and Asia-Pacific Integration: A Quantitative Assessment

Author:
Peter A. Petri, Michael G. Plummer, and Fan Zhai
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Two emerging tracks of trade agreements in the Asia-Pacific—one based on the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement and an Asian track—could consolidate the “noodle bowl” of current smaller agreements and provide pathways to a Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP). We examine the benefits and strategic incentives generated by these tracks over 2010-2025. The effects on the world economy would be small initially but by 2025 the annual welfare gains would rise to $104 billion on the TPP track, $303 billion on both tracks, and $862 billion with an FTAAP. The tracks will be competitive but their strategic implications are constructive: each would generate incentives for enlargement. Over time, strong economic incentives would emerge for the United States and China to consolidate the tracks into a region-wide agreement. Each track would bring a different template to such consolidation and can be viewed as defining a “disagreement point” in the Asia-Pacific bargaining game. The study is based on an analysis of 48 actual and proposed Asia-Pacific trade agreements and models impacts on variables including sectoral trade, output, employment and job shifts in 24 world regions.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, China, Israel, Asia, Australia/Pacific, and Asia-Pacific

12. Benchmarking Against Progress: An Assessment of Australia's Aid Effectiveness

Author:
Laurence Chandy
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Is Australia's aid program effective? Measuring the effectiveness of aid is no easy feat. For a start, there is uncertainty about what aid is trying to achieve. Even seemingly straightforward objectives, like poverty reduction, throw up a range of questions as to what precisely ought to be measured. For instance, how should one balance the provision of temporary relief to those in need with catalyzing permanent transformation in people's lives (Barder, 2009)? Second, it is notoriously difficult to isolate the effect of a single aid program from other factors. Aid is delivered in an environment of enormous complexity where all manner of other events shape outcomes, including actions by recipient governments, aid from other countries, non-aid flows, and the performance of the global economy. To accurately attribute impact to aid therefore requires a thorough understanding of the setting in which aid is given. Third, the effects of aid are not always immediate or straightforward. For instance, improvements in people's skills or the performance of institutions may manifest gradually. Measurements of what aid achieves must be sensitive to the different ways change is brought about (Woolcock et al., 2009).
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, Humanitarian Aid, Poverty, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
Australia/Pacific

13. Year in Review 2011

Author:
J. Jackson Ewing (ed) and Alistair D.B. Cook (ed)
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS)
Abstract:
The year 2011 has seen the further prioritisation of nontraditional security (NTS) issues throughout research and policymaking circles in the Asia-Pacific region. Regional trends and events have highlighted the need for strategies that can help people, communities, states and organisations address multifarious security challenges, thus propelling the NTS platform to a higher stratum of political and institutional discourse.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Climate Change, Development, Economics, Health, Poverty, Natural Disasters, and Food
Political Geography:
Asia and Australia/Pacific

14. The Impact of the Global Economic Crisis on the Pacific Region

Author:
Simon Feeny
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
At a macroeconomic level, the Global Economic Crisis (GEC) has had less impact on many Pacific countries than on most other developing countries across the world. However, this does not imply that Pacific country economies are performing well. Economic growth rates for most countries in the Pacific region are expected to be low for 2009 and 2010 and the majority of economies are likely to contract on a per capita basis in these years.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Poverty, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Australia/Pacific

15. Fiji: the flailing state

Publication Date:
04-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Fiji's President Ratu Josefa Iloilovatu Uluivuda announced on 10 April 2009 that he had abrogated Fiji's 1997 constitution, appointed himself head of state, revoked the appointment of all judicial officers and would direct an interim government to hold parliamentary elections by September 2014. The President's announcement followed a Court of Appeal judgement on 9 April which ruled that Commodore Voreqe Bainimarama's December 2006 coup was illegal and directed the President to appoint an independent third person to lead an interim government and call for fresh elections under the 1997 constitution. On 11 April, President Iloilo reappointed Bainimarama as interim Prime Minister, who subsequently imposed strict censorship on the media, deported Australian journalist Sean Dorney, arrested a number of opponents and removed the Reserve Bank Governor, Savenaca Narube.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Foreign Aid, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
Australia/Pacific

16. The Microeconomic Determinants of Emigration and Return Migration and Return Migration of the Best and Brightest: Evidence from the Pacific

Author:
John Gibson and David McKenzie
Publication Date:
05-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
A unique survey which tracks worldwide the best and brightest academic performers from three Pacific countries is used to assess the extent of emigration and return migration among the very highly skilled, and to analyze, at the microeconomic level, the determinants of these migration choices. Although we estimate that the income gains from migration are very large, not everyone migrates and many return. Within this group of highly skilled individuals the emigration decision is found to be most strongly associated with preference variables such as risk aversion, patience, and choice of subjects in secondary school, and not strongly linked to either liquidity constraints or to the gain in income to be had from migrating. Likewise, the decision to return is strongly linked to family and lifestyle reasons, rather than to the income opportunities in different countries. Overall the data show a relatively limited role for income maximization in distinguishing migration propensities among the very highly skilled, and a need to pay more attention to other components of the utility maximization decision.
Topic:
Economics, Migration, Political Economy, and Immigration
Political Geography:
Australia/Pacific

17. The United States and the Asia-Pacific Region: National Interests and Strategic Imperatives

Author:
James J. Przystup
Publication Date:
04-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
From its earliest days, the United States has been engaged in trade with East Asia. In February 1784, the Empress of China left New York harbor, sailing east to China, arriving at Macau on the China coast in August of that year. The ship returned to the United States the following May with a consignment of Chinese goods, which generated a profit of $30,000. In 1844, China granted the United States trading rights in the Treaty of Wanghia.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States, China, Asia, and Australia/Pacific

18. Commodity Price Shocks and the Australian Economy since Federation

Author:
Sambit Bhattacharyya and Jeffery G. Williamson
Publication Date:
07-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Even though Australia has experienced frequent and large commodity export price shocks like the Third World, it seems to have dealt with the volatility better. Why? This paper explores Australian terms of trade volatility since 1901. It identifies two major price shock episodes before the recent mining-led boom and bust. It assesses their relative magnitude, their de-industrialization and distributional impact, and policy responses. In what way has Australia been different from other commodity exporters experiencing volatile prices?
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Australia/Pacific

19. Australia's poisoned alumni: international education and the costs to Australia

Author:
Michael Wesley
Publication Date:
08-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
What is the problem? International education is Australia's third-largest export market, earning over $15 billion in export income annually. But as tertiary institutions face incentives to maximise income from foreign students, some have lowered language standards and cut costs on student welfare and service provision.
Topic:
Crime, Economics, Education, Globalization, and Migration
Political Geography:
Australia/Pacific

20. A G-20 caucus for East Asia

Author:
Stephen Grenville and Mark P Thirlwell
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
In September 2009 the Pittsburgh Summit designated the G-20 as the world's premier forum for international cooperation. The G-20's arrival at the apex of the international economic architecture gives East Asia a much greater presence at the top table of the world economy: six regional economies, including Australia, are members of the G-20, in contrast to the G7, which only had room for Japan. This increase in representation creates important new opportunities for the region. But making use of these opportunities requires significant increases in policy-making resources. Unfortunately, in many Asian economies, such resources are in short supply relative to the wide variety of pressing problems the region currently faces.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Japan, Israel, East Asia, and Australia/Pacific