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72. Climate Change and Geopolitics in the Blue Pacific
- Author:
- Danielle Lynn Goh
- Publication Date:
- 12-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- Climate change has consistently been articulated as the greatest threat to the region by the leaders of Pacific Island countries. Atoll nations face the possibility of forced displacement due to rising sea levels and extreme weather events. At the same time, these countries risk being drawn into the China-US competition for geopolitical influence even though this rivalry provides opportunities for them to engage with the big powers to deal with climate change. The Pacific island countries have also been strengthening their regional security through a more unified approach, established in their 2050 Blue Pacific Strategy.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Geopolitics, Regional Security, Forced Displacement, and Climate Refugees
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America
73. The Future of Small Modular Reactors: Implications for Nuclear Governance
- Author:
- Julius Caesar Trajano and Alvin Chew
- Publication Date:
- 07-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) are classified by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) as advanced reactors that produce electricity of up to 300MW. An SMR is a fraction of the size of a conventional nuclear power reactor and will produce carbon-free electricity. The Asia-Pacific region has seen renewed interest in nuclear power. Northeast Asian countries are involved in business and technological investments in developing SMR projects while Southeast Asian countries, as possible commercial users, are exploring SMRs as a future clean energy source. The development of SMR technology offers an alternative source of clean energy for Southeast Asian countries where energy demand continues to grow rapidly. However, in preparation for future SMR deployment, it is worthwhile to review ongoing efforts to enhance nuclear governance frameworks. Key challenges to the introduction of SMRs revolve around regulatory frameworks, operation and maintenance, spent fuel management, and the 3S (Safety, Security, Safeguards) of nuclear governance among others. This NTS Insight provides an overview of SMR projects in Northeast Asia and recent developments in Southeast Asia. It examines the critical roles of global nuclear safety and security regimes, national regulatory bodies, and nuclear vendors in ensuring a more robust nuclear governance that incorporates the 3S concept associated with advanced SMRs.
- Topic:
- Security, Governance, Electricity, Renewable Energy, Nuclear Energy, and Small Modular Reactors (SMRs)
- Political Geography:
- Southeast Asia and Asia-Pacific
74. EU – Pacific Talks: H2 – Hydrogen Hype
- Author:
- David Plhák
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Europeum Institute for European Policy
- Abstract:
- Czechia is in many respects similar to Japan in its limited ability to rely fully on renewables. It is therefore in the interest of Czechia to increase hydrogen imports and its use in the energy mix. In order to ensure a steady supply of hydrogen the gas system operators of Czechia, Slovakia, Ukraine, and Germany launched in 2021 joined initiative to create a Central European Hydrogen corridor in an effort to create a supply of hydrogen from Ukraine. Unfortunately, given the Russian aggression on Ukraine, this project must be stopped, until Ukraine will be free of war again.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, European Union, Economy, and Hydrogen
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Ukraine, Germany, Asia-Pacific, Slovakia, European Union, and Czechia
75. Dangerous Straits: Wargaming a Future Conflict over Taiwan
- Author:
- Stacie L. Pettyjohn, Becca Wasser, and Chris Dougherty
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
- Abstract:
- Until recently, U.S. policymakers and subject matter experts have viewed the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC’s) forcible unification with Taiwan as a distant threat. But the mix of rapid Chinese military modernization, a narrow window for localized near-parity with the U.S. military, and growing pessimism about the prospects for peaceful unification may lead the PRC to perceive that it has the ability to pursue a successful operation against Taiwan. Beijing’s lessons learned from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could prompt the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to adjust its war plans for Taiwan to become more effective and deadly. Coupled together, these developments may suggest an accelerated timeline for seizing Taiwan. It is therefore urgent that the United States, in conjunction with its regional allies and partners, identify ways to deter the PRC from invading Taiwan and prevent a future conflict. To do so, the Gaming Lab at CNAS, in partnership with NBC’s Meet the Press, conducted a high-level strategic-operational wargame exploring a fictional war over Taiwan, set in 2027. The wargame sought to illuminate the dilemmas that U.S. and Chinese policymakers might face in such a conflict, along with the strategies they might adopt to achieve their overarching objectives. The game was intended to produce insights as to how the United States and its allies and partners could deter the PRC from invading Taiwan and could better position themselves to defend Taiwan and defeat such aggression should deterrence fail.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Conflict, and War Games
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America
76. Assessing the groundwork: Surveying the impacts of climate change in China
- Author:
- Stephan Robin
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
- Abstract:
- The immediate and unprecedented impacts of climate change are becoming increasingly apparent across China, as they are for many parts of the world. Since June 2022, China has been battered by record-breaking heatwaves, torrential downpours, flooding disasters, severe drought and intense forest fires. In isolation, each of those climate hazards is a reminder of the vulnerability of human systems to environmental changes, but together they are a stark reminder that climate change presents a real and existential threat to prosperity and well-being of billions of people. Sea-level rise will undermine access to freshwater for China’s coastal cities and increase the likelihood of flooding in China’s highly urbanised delta regions. Droughts are projected to become more frequent, more extreme and longer lasting, juxtaposed with growingly intense downpours that will inundate non-coastal regions. Wildfires are also projected to increase in frequency and severity, especially in eastern China. China’s rivers, which have historically been critical to the county’s economic and political development, will experience multiple, overlapping climate (and non-climate) impacts. In addition to these direct climate hazards, there will also be major disruptions to the various human systems that underpin China, such as China’s food and energy systems as are discussed in this report. These impacts deserve greater attention from policy analysts, particularly given that they’ll increasingly shape China’s economic, foreign and security policy choices in coming decades. This report is an initial attempt to survey the literature on the impact that climate change will have on China. It concludes that relatively little attention has been paid to this important topic. This is a worrying conclusion, given China’s key role in international climate-change debates, immense importance in the global economy and major geostrategic relevance. As the severity of climate change impacts continue to amplify over the coming decades, the significance of this gap will only grow more concerning.
- Topic:
- Security, Climate Change, National Security, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia-Pacific
77. Suppressing the truth and spreading lies: How the CCP is influencing Solomon Islands’ information environment
- Author:
- Blake Johnson, Miah Hammond-Errey, Daria Impiombato, Albert Zhang, and Joshua Dunne
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
- Abstract:
- The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is attempting to influence public discourse in Solomon Islands through coordinated information operations that seek to spread false narratives and suppress information on a range of topics. Following the November 2021 Honiara riots and the March 2022 leaking of the China – Solomon Islands security agreement, the CCP has used its propaganda and disinformation capabilities to push false narratives in an effort to shape the Solomon Islands public’s perception of security issues and foreign partners. In alignment with the CCP’s regional security objectives, those messages have a strong focus on undermining Solomon Islands’ existing partnerships with Australia and the US. Although some of the CCP’s messaging occurs through routine diplomatic engagement, there’s a coordinated effort to influence the population across a broad spectrum of information channels. That spectrum includes Chinese party-state media, CCP official-led statements and publications in local and social media, and the amplification of particular individual and pro-CCP content via targeted Facebook groups. There’s now growing evidence to suggest that CCP officials are also seeking to suppress information that doesn’t align with the party-state’s narratives across the Pacific islands through the coercion of local journalists and media institutions.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Propaganda, Disinformation, and Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
- Political Geography:
- China, Solomon Islands, and Asia-Pacific
78. North of 26 degrees south and the security of Australia: views from The Strategist, Volume 6
- Author:
- John Coyne and Grace Stanhope
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
- Abstract:
- The Northern Australia Strategic Policy Centre’s latest report, North of 26 degrees south and the security of Australia: views from The Strategist, Volume 6, is a series of articles published in The Strategist over the last six months, building on previous volumes by identifying critical intersections of national security, nation-building and Australia’s north. This issue, like previous volumes, includes a wide range of articles sourced from a diverse pool of expert contributors writing on topics as varied as maritime law enforcement, equatorial space launch, renewable energy infrastructure, rare earths and critical minerals, agriculture, Industry 4.0, advanced manufacturing, fuel and water security, and defence force posturing. It also features a foreword by the Honourable Madeleine King MP, Minister for Northern Australia. Minister King writes, “Northern Australia promises boundless opportunity and potential. It is the doorway to our region and key to our future prosperity.” The 24 articles propose concrete, real-world actions for policy-makers to facilitate the development, prosperity and security of Australia’s north. The authors share a sense that those things that make the north unique – its vast space, low population density, specific geography, and harsh investment environment – are characteristics that can be leveraged, not disadvantages.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, National Security, Infrastructure, Law Enforcement, Space, and Renewable Energy
- Political Geography:
- Australia and Asia-Pacific
79. The Emergence of African Continental Free Trade Area Agreement and Lessons from the Asia-Pacific Trade Agreement
- Author:
- Samuel Igbatayo
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- Africa’s regional integration agenda arrived at a cross roads in 2019, with the adoption of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement. The AfCFTA framework came into force on 30th May, 2019, with its ratification by The Gambia, which brought the total number of African Union (AU) member state ratifications to twenty-two, the minimum threshold for AfCFTA implementation (Baker McKenzie 2019). As of May; 2022, forty-three of the 55 African countries have ratified the AfCFTA agreement (African Union 2018). The 12th Extraordinary Session of the Assembly of the African Union in Niamey on 7th July; 2019, witnessed the launching of AfCFTA’s operational phase, which is governed by five instruments, namely: the rules of origin, the online negotiating forum, the monitoring and elimination of non-tariff barriers; a digital payment system and the African Trade Observatory. In addition, the beginning of trade under the terms of the agreement was set for July 1, 2020 (TRALAC 2020). A free trade agreement (FTA) can be aptly described as a pact between two or more countries on areas in which they agree to lift most or all tariffs, and other barriers to imports and exports among them (Barone 2019). Under a free trade framework, goods and services can be traded across international borders, with little or no government tariffs, quotas, subsidies, or prohibitions to inhibit their exchange. The theory of free trade Agreements is rooted in classical economics, dating back to the era of Adam Smith. During this period, David Ricardo (1772-1823), a British political economist, was acknowledged with pioneering thoughts on free trade as a key instrument for wealth accumulation. The evolution of preferential trade agreements is traceable to the rise of European countries after World War II, with the establishment of the European Coal and Steel Community in 1951, a development that eventually culminated in the creation of the European Union (EU) (Johnston 2019). Spurred by the success of regional bodies with free trade agreements and Africa’s poor trading performance; estimated at a paltry 3% of annual global trade, the African Union embarked upon the creation of the AfCFTA agreement as a tool for Intra-Africa trade and regional integration.
- Topic:
- Economics, Treaties and Agreements, Regional Integration, and Free Trade
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Asia-Pacific
80. Australia’s Strategic Responses to the US-China Rivalry and Implications to Korea
- Author:
- Ina Choi, Sunhyung Lee, Jaeho Lee, and So Eun Kim
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- As in other Asia-Pacific countries, boosting trade with China has provided a growth engine for Australia's economy. Australia shared concerns over security threats posed by China’s military expansion, but up until the mid-2010s hard balancing against China did not seem to be an option for Australia. Australia’s recent moves against China, however, signal that Canberra has reset its China policy, with an overhaul of its national security and defense strategy. The shift of Australia’s China policy is an interesting case to explore how the regional order is likely to evolve in the growing US-China competition. Assessing Australia’s recent foreign policy is also relevant to Korea, both in terms of navigating Korea’s relations with the US and China and enhancing strategic ties between Australia and Korea. Against this backdrop, this study unravels Australia’s strategic responses to the changing regional order and draw implications for Korea's foreign policy.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, National Security, Economy, Trade, and Rivalry
- Political Geography:
- China, South Korea, Australia, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America