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802. The Rise of Petroyuan
- Author:
- Dan Steinbock
- Publication Date:
- 01-2018
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- In the late 20th century, U.S. petrodollar dominated the world economy. In the 21st century, we are witnessing the rise of the Chinese petroyuan. This ascent could speed up the erosion of the dollar’s dominance after a century of power. The U.S. dollar still accounts for 39% of international payments – more than the euro (33%), English pound (7%), Japanese yen (3%) and Chinese yuan (28%) – but times are changing.
- Topic:
- Oil, History, Natural Resources, Economy, and Currency
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
803. National Security Update 4: The Implications of China’s Actions in the South China Sea and U.S. Options
- Author:
- Jack Kelly
- Publication Date:
- 02-2018
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis (IFPA)
- Abstract:
- This IFPA National Security Update addresses the potential consequences of China’s strategy to control the South China Sea and possible U.S. and allied responses. In early 2017, the Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis initiated an online series entitled National Security Update. Its purpose is to examine key foreign policy/defense issues and to set forth policy options. These updates are made available to the broad policy community within and outside government, including key policy makers in Washington, D.C.; members of Congress and their staffs; academic specialists; and other members of the private-sector security community. Future National Security Updates will address a range of topics in an effort to provide timely analyses and policy options.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, National Security, Territorial Disputes, Grand Strategy, and Missile Defense
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, South China, and United States of America
804. Macron, Diplomat: A New French Foreign Policy?
- Author:
- Thomas Gomart and Marc Hecker
- Publication Date:
- 04-2018
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
- Abstract:
- How can we define Emmanuel Macron’s foreign policy since he took office? After Nicolas Sarkozy’s brazen style of “gutsy diplomacy” and François Hollande’s “normal diplomacy”, the eighth president of the Fifth Republic seems to have opted for an agile classicism. In substance, he makes no claim to any radical break with the past, but sees his approach as being in line with historical tradition. In relation to his predecessors, he has adjusted the balance between alliances, values, and interests in favor of the latter, while giving his policies an unambiguous European orientation. Formally, his approach is characterized by recourse to symbolism, strict control of communications, and an agile personal style. A term used within the business world to encourage organizations and individuals to adapt and innovate, “agility” also connotes a will to utilize and master new technologies. [...] Comprising 14 brief analyses, this collective study contributes to the initiative launched by Ifri in 2016 to analyze French foreign policy, and follows on directly from the earlier study published on the eve of the presidential election. It aims to give an update on the action Emmanuel Macron has taken on the principal international issues since his arrival in office. It should therefore be read not as an overall assessment, which would be impossible at this early stage of the presidential term, but more as an impressionist tableau giving a sense of an overall movement containing many different hues. Emmanuel Macron has four years left to perfect it.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Trade Policy, and Emmanuel Macron
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Russia, Middle East, Asia, France, United States of America, and European Union
805. The Japan-India Economic Partnership: A Politically Driven Process
- Author:
- Celine Pajon and Isabelle Saint-Mezard
- Publication Date:
- 09-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
- Abstract:
- In the last decade, the strengthening of the India-Japan strategic partnership has been primarily driven by geopolitical considerations, in an era of competing regional visions and influence. While bilateral relations have shown progress in terms of political values and interests, strategic convergence and military cooperation, their economic dimension has seemed to lag behind. While India has been one of the largest recipients of Japanese official development assistance (ODA) loans since 2003, it made up only 2.2% of Japan’s total overseas direct investment (ODI) flows in 2016. Moreover, the volume of bilateral trade has remained surprisingly modest. In other words, India and Japan still need to boost business links to give more substance to their bilateral partnership as well as support India’s robust and long-term development and economic growth, as Japan needs a strong democratic partner in Asia. The objective is highly political. Japan and India are eager to develop their partnership as a balancing act vis-à-vis China. If they are to fulfill their ambitious geopolitical visions, they also need to promote cooperation in third countries.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Infrastructure, Geopolitics, Economic Cooperation, and Economic Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Japan, India, and Asia
806. The Trump-led Trade War with China: Energy Dominance Self-destructed?
- Author:
- Sylvie Cornot-Gandolphe and Jean-François Boittin
- Publication Date:
- 09-2018
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
- Abstract:
- Under particular US legal rationale, such as calling foreign imports a “national security threat”, President Donald Trump has started imposing tariffs and/or quotas and has launched national security investigations on a growing number of imported goods from US allies and others alike.In March and June 2018, the US imposed tariffs or quotas on steel and aluminium on all trading partners, but Australia. In July and August 2018, the US began imposing tariffs on $50 billion in Chinese industrial goods on the ground of unfair trade practices. As China has retaliated with tit-for-tat measures, President Trump has imposed tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods from 24 September 2018 onwards, and in an unprecedented escalation of his trade war with China, he has also threatened to impose tariffs on an additional $267 billion in Chinese goods. If eventually carried out, Trump’s latest threat could result in tariffs on all Chinese goods entering the US. China has retaliated and imposed tariffs on $60 billion in US goods, including a 10% duty on liquefied natural gas (LNG). For the time being, trade tensions have had a limited impact on the energy market. But the new round of US tariffs and retaliation measures by China suggest that this is going to change.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, Gas, Renewable Energy, and Coal
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
807. Xi Jinping’s Institutional Reforms: Environment over Energy?
- Author:
- Thibaud Voïta
- Publication Date:
- 10-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
- Abstract:
- During its two sessions (lianghui) in March 2018, the National People’s Congress (NPC) announced China’s most important institutional reforms in the last 30 years. These changes occurred right after Xi Jinping consolidated his power and at a time when stakeholders working in the energy field were expecting more clarity on policy orientations. Though the reforms are in line with those initiated since the 2000s, the energy sector is likely to be deeply affected by the new institutional setting, which reflects China’s energy policy path with a strong emphasis towards low-carbon technologies and a rise in importance of environmental issues, alongside Xi’s institutional modernization through greater centralization and control. Nevertheless, it is too early though to judge whether this will effectively impact the balance of power with the fossil fuel related institutions and policies. The day Environment became more important than energy The environment sector is at the core of the reforms, which probably reflects the will to put environmental protection ahead of energy issues. The latest reforms established a Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE) which gathers climate and environment responsibilities, that used to be spread between a number of bodies. Unveiled in April, the MEE is now in charge of managing most environmental issues, and theoretically able to draft and empower regulations. In addition, it now represents China in international climate negotiations. In order to manage these new duties, MEE staff increased from 300 to 500.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Governance, and Xi Jinping
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
808. Between Giants: The Sino-Indian Cold War in the Indian Ocean
- Author:
- David Brewster
- Publication Date:
- 12-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
- Abstract:
- Strategic competition between India and China in the Indian Ocean is growing and has the potential to profoundly impact the stability and security of the region. The Indian Ocean is becoming the scene of a sustained contest that in some ways resembles strategic competition during the Cold War. This will include pressure on Indian Ocean states to align themselves with one side or another within an increasingly unstable and complex strategic environment.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Political stability, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Strategic Competition
- Political Geography:
- China, South Asia, India, Asia, and Indian Ocean
809. Will North Korea Denuclearize after the Singapore Summit? Lessons from the past
- Author:
- Naoko Aoki
- Publication Date:
- 07-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM)
- Abstract:
- Policy-makers, scholars, and analysts disagree about whether North Korea will take any meaningful denuclearization steps after its leader Kim Jong Un met with U.S. President Donald Trump in Singapore in June 2018. Many believe that the breakdowns of the 1994 Agreed Framework and the Six Party Talks process in the 2000s show that North Korea’s nuclear weapons program cannot be constrained through cooperation. According to this view, Pyongyang violated its previous commitments once it received economic and political benefits, and it will do so again. The underlying assumption is that Washington was fully implementing its own commitments until Pyongyang broke the deal. But is this true? This paper discusses three key findings drawn from an analysis of U.S. implementation of past denuclearization agreements with North Korea. The first is that the United Stated did not always follow through with its cooperative commitments because of domestic political constraints, even when North Korea was fulfilling its commitments. This makes it difficult to determine whether North Korea ultimately did not honor its obligations because it never intended to or because it was responding to U.S. actions. The second is that some parts of past deals were more susceptible than others to being undercut by domestic opposition because they received insufficient political attention. The third is that such domestic interference could be minimized by obtaining the widest possible coalition of domestic support from the negotiation stage. The roadmap for North Korea’s denuclearization is unclear, as the Singapore summit did not determine concrete steps toward that goal. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s visit to Pyongyang in early July also did not yield specifics such as the scope and timeline of denuclearization. But based on the findings from past agreements, this paper argues that the only way for the United States to find out if engagement will work this time is to test North Korea’s intentions by carrying out Washington’s own cooperative commitments more consistently than in the past.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Nonproliferation, and Deterrence
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, China, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and Korea
810. Rethinking Soft Power in Light of China’s Belt and Road Initiative
- Author:
- Mustafa Yağci
- Publication Date:
- 06-2018
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Uluslararasi Iliskiler
- Institution:
- International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
- Abstract:
- This paper investigates how China appeals to other countries by utilizing soft power in ensuring their participation in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which seeks to revive ancient Silk Road through infrastructure, trade, finance and other linkages. By employing a behavioral and contextualized explanation for soft power, this investigation reveals that Chinese state actively pursues a soft power-oriented economic diplomacy for BRI and relies on hard power resources for its effectiveness. Furthermore, China takes advantage of the power vacuum in the global economy and embraces a liberal economic vision for the international system in its diplomatic activities emphasizing the importance of globalization, free trade, infrastructure investment, and win-win cooperation in achieving high levels of economic development. While China frames BRI mainly in terms of economic development purposes, China’s soft power appeal to other countries is likely to have important political and security implications for the international system.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Soft Power, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Economic Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia