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3201. Chechnya Weekly: Putin Amnesty Proposal Raises Host of Questions . . .

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Russian President Vladimir Putin's amnesty proposal, which last week received preliminary approval from the federal Duma, is intended in large part to serve the same purpose as his March constitutional referendum. That is to create the impression that peace, reconciliation and the rule of law are returning to Chechnya, with the support of all but a few separatist fanatics. But compared to the referendum, the amnesty has a key disadvantage: Most (though not all) of the key issues involve the proposed legislation's formal text, not the largely hidden process by which that text will be put into practice. Ever since the president formally presented his proposal to the Russian parliament on May 12, skeptics have subjected it to withering criticism—most of the specific points of which Putin and his circle have not even seriously tried to address.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, and Chechnya

3202. Chechnya Weekly: Terror Attacks Suggest Disturbing Trend

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
In some few respects—indeed, fewer even than a year ago— Shamil Basaev remains a traditional Chechen rebel rather than a postmodern global terrorist. For one, he takes full, public and personal responsibility for his atrocities. That fact alone casts doubt on the Kremlin's attempts to create the impression that the Chechen separatist movement (of which Basaev in any case represents only a part) is simply an arm of al Qaeda. Another difference is that Basaev has not followed al Qaeda's recent switch to soft targets. A pair of mid-May attacks, which Basaev publicly claimed as his own on May 19, were directed against two of the most heavily defended entities in hyper-militarized Chechnya—a key regional headquarters of the Federal Security Service (FSB) secret police, and the person of the head of the republic's Moscow- appointed administration.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, and Moscow

3203. When Wen Comes To Washington . . .

Author:
Yu Bin
Publication Date:
12-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
In the Chinese language, the character "wen" means moderation and modesty. This happens to capture the personality and policies of China's new premier, Wen Jiabao. In his first trip to the United States as premier, Wen will try to present the image of a rising China that is liberalizing at home, is confident abroad, and willing and able to work with the world's sole superpower. The U.S. side will also have a closeup look at the man who may well administer China for the next 10 years.
Political Geography:
United States, China, Israel, and Asia

3204. Taiwan Referendum: Waving a Red Flag

Author:
Ralph A. Cossa
Publication Date:
12-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
TAIPEI – Is President Chen Shui-bian trying to provoke a crisis with the PRC in the run up to the March 2004 presidential elections in Taiwan? Taiwan government spokesmen say no, but there is a growing perception among cross-Strait watchers that Taipei is purposefully baiting Beijing in hopes of provoking a hostile response (a la the 1996 missile “tests”) that will cause the island's public to rally around the flag (and the ruling Democratic Progressive Party) in the name of Taiwanese nationalism.
Political Geography:
China, Israel, and Asia

3205. Six-Party Talks Prospects

Author:
Ralph A. Cossa
Publication Date:
11-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
President Bush's recent offer to provide Pyongyang with written assurances that the U.S. does not intend to attack North Korea and the North's willingness “to consider” this offer provide the basis, however tentative and contentious, for a negotiated solution to the current nuclear stand-off on the Korean Peninsula. But even if the North really does return to the bargaining table – and this is by no means assured – a long and difficult road lies ahead in the search for common ground between the two primary antagonists in this six-party drama. The key to a successful outcome remains the willingness of the other four actors – China, Japan, Russia, and especially South Korea – to stand firmly behind Washington's central demand: that Pyongyang “fully, verifiably, and irreversibly” abandon its nuclear weapons programs.
Political Geography:
Russia, Japan, China, Israel, and Asia

3206. A Bittersweet Win For Mr. Koizumi

Author:
Brad Glosserman
Publication Date:
11-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Tokyo – In the end, the weather just wasn't bad enough. Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has dominated politics since 1955, claimed victory in Sunday's national election as it and its coalition partners took a comfortable majority in the Diet. Prime Minister Koizumi Junichiro's celebrations have been muted, however: The LDP's failure to win an outright majority in the lower house will embolden obstructionists within his own party who oppose his reform agenda.
Political Geography:
China, Israel, and Asia

3207. South Korea Must Play Bigger Role In Defense

Author:
James J. Przystup and William M. Drennan
Publication Date:
11-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Fifty years ago, the United States and South Korea signed a mutual defense treaty designed to meet the "common danger" posed by North Korea to the survival of the South and to vital U.S. interests. The golden anniversary should be cause for celebration, but hold the applause. The alliance is in serious trouble, and possibly terminal decline, unless urgent steps are taken to revitalize it.
Political Geography:
United States, China, Israel, Asia, and South Korea

3208. What's at Stake in Japan's Elections?

Author:
Takao Toshikawa and Richard Katz
Publication Date:
11-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
In a series of newspaper advertisements, a few of Japan's more cosmopolitan business leaders, including Kazuo Inamori, founder of Kyocera, pointed to what's really at stake in the November 9 elections for the Lower House of Japan's Diet. "We support a nation where a change of government is possible," they wrote.
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Israel, and Asia

3209. Deepening America's Response to Terrorism

Author:
Patrick M. Cronin
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Hidden away in President Bush's trip to Asia, especially his short stopover in Bali, are clues that the administration may be finally broadening and deepening its counter terror strategy. Unveiled during the president's trip is an investment of $157 million over the next six years to improve the quality of secular basic education and moderate the influence of extremist views in Islamic day and boarding schools –madrasahs and pesantren, respectively. The president's trip to the world's largest Muslim-majority country may not be remembered for education, but it should be.
Topic:
Terrorism
Political Geography:
China, Israel, and Asia

3210. China's Manned Space Program

Author:
Dean Cheng
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
In recent weeks, there has been mounting attention paid to the Chinese space program, as China prepares to join the United States and Russia in launching one of its citizens into outer space. This has been a long-standing goal of the Chinese space program, since at least the founding of the Space Flight Medical Research Center by Qian Xuesen, in 1968 (two years before China's first satellite was orbited). Indeed, it has become clear in recent years that the Chinese seriously considered trying to put a man in orbit early in the 1970s. an array of satellites that fulfill a variety of military missions, including reconnaissance, meteorology, and communications. The addition of a manned program does not provide significant additional advantage.
Political Geography:
China, Israel, and Asia