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3021. China Brief,Beijing's Reaction to East Asia's Changing Alliance

Author:
Christine Loh, Willy Lam, Eric Teo, and Steven Sun
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
If China had sufficient economic and military prowess, there seems little doubt the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership would “go teach the U.S. a lesson” for the wrongs it had allegedly inflicted upon on the country. Previous CCP administrations had used similar clauses of indignation – and the assertion of a moral high ground based on self-defense and the preservation of sovereign rights – when they went to war with nations including India, Russia and Vietnam. And while the Chinese party and military leadership may for the time being be deterred by America's superpower status from trying out something rash, tension between China on the one hand, and the U.S. and many Asian countries on the other, is expected to rise in the foreseeable future.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Russia, China, America, Asia, and Vietnam

3022. The U.S. – ROK Alliance: Building a Mature Partnership

Author:
James J. Przystup and Kang Choi
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
In thinking about the future direction of the alliance between the United States and South Korea, one needs to start in the past. For in this case, the past is truly prologue. More than a decade ago, as President George H.W. Bush came into office, structural changes in the security landscape of Asia were becoming manifest. The Cold War was winding down. Congress and the American public were looking for returns on the “peace dividend.” There was a clear expectation that cuts would be coming across the board — and in Asia, these cuts would begin with the Korean Peninsula.
Topic:
Security and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Israel, Asia, South Korea, and Korea

3023. The case for regional exchange rate arrangement in East Asia'

Author:
Takuji Kinkyo
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
The Asian crisis highlighted the difficulties for developing countries to actively manage exchange rates in an environment of high capital mobility. Now it became fashionable to argue that the exchange rate should be either allowed to float freely or irrevocably fixed. This paper examines the case for regional exchange rate arrangements as an instrument to enhance the manageability of exchange rates and discusses the options in East Asia. It critically assess the existing proposal of common basket peg system and suggests that East Asia should seek to create an Asian-version of regional monetary system modeled on the EMS.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Economics, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
East Asia and Asia

3024. Transmission channels of capital flow shocks: why Korean crisis was so severe'

Author:
Takuji Kinkyo
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
The Asian crisis highlighted the vulnerability of emerging market economies faced by sudden capital flow reversals. An important question that has critical implications for crisis management is how negative shocks in capital inflows were transmitted to economic activities, transforming financial instability into fully-fledged crises. Using VARs, this paper analyzes the transmission mechanism of capital flow shocks during the Korean crisis of 1997-98. Although it is commonly believed that severe economic contractions were caused by credit crunch, the analysis suggests that the major constraint for production was a steep rise in prices of imported inputs due to sharp exchange rate depreciations.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Economics, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
Asia and Korea

3025. The Changing Role Of China On The Korean Peninsula

Author:
Samuel S. Kim
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:
International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:
There has been much talk lately about the changing role of China on the Korean peninsula. China's proactive diplomacy during the second standoff over nuclear weapons between the United States and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) stands in marked contrast to the risk-averse “who me?” posture it held during the conflict of the early 1990s that culminated in the U.S.-DPRK Agreed Framework on October 21, 1994. In that earlier conflict, the Chinese opted to sit on the sidelines with the familiar refrain that this was a dispute to be resolved bilaterally between Washington and Pyongyang. In the latest (second) nuclear standoff, China has played the primary catalytic role of facilitating bi-trilateral (DPRK-U.S.-China) and multilateral six-nation dialogues among all the Northeast Asian concerned states, drawing North Korea into a sui generis regional multilateral setting that it had previously sworn off in a quest for bilateral negotiations with the United States. In this process, the People's Republic of China (PRC) and the Republic of Korea (ROK) have increasingly come into virtual geopolitical alignment, in tandem with the straining and fracturing of the ROK-US alliance.
Political Geography:
United States, China, Washington, Asia, Korea, and Pyongyang

3026. China's "Peaceful Rise:" Implications for US Interests in Korea

Author:
Robert Sutter
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:
International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:
Beginning in 2003, Chinese leaders began a new stage in China's efforts to define China's approach toward its neighboring countries and what China's approach meant for the United States and US interests in Asia and the world. Premier Wen Jiabao addressed the topic of China's peaceful rise in a speech in New York on December 9, 2003. Despite such high level pronouncements, the exact purpose and scope of the new emphasis on China's “peaceful rise” remained less than clear to Chinese and foreign specialists. Consultations in May 2004 with 50 Chinese officials and non-government specialists closely involved in this issue helped to clarify the state of play in Chinese decision-making circles regarding China's peaceful rise and what it meant for China's approach to Korea and the rest of Asia and for US interests and policy in the region.
Political Geography:
United States, China, Asia, and Korea

3027. SIPRI Yearbook 2004: Armaments, Disarmament and International Security (Pocket-size Summary Edition)

Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
There were 19 major armed conflicts in 18 locations in 2003. The number of major armed conflicts and the number of conflict locations were slightly lower in 2003 than in 2002, when there were 20 major armed conflicts in 19 locations. Four of the 19 conflicts in 2003 were in Africa and eight in Asia. In the 14-year post-cold war period, there were 59 different major armed conflicts in 48 different locations. The number of major armed conflicts in 2003 was the lowest for the entire period except for 1997, when there were 18 major armed conflicts. Two interstate conflicts were active in 2003: the conflict between Iraq and the multinational coalition; and the conflict between India and Pakistan. The majority of the major armed conflicts today are intra- state. The persistence of intra-state wars, and their resistance to quick solutions, was reflected in 2003 by the continuation of the Colombian and Israeli–Palestinian conflicts. The potential for sudden and rapid escalation of intensity was evident in conflicts such as Burundi, Côte d'Ivoire, Indonesia, Liberia and Sudan (Darfur). The current international focus on the threat of terrorism is affecting the strategies, intensity and course of intra-state conflicts such as those in Indonesia and the Philippines. Outside actors cannot enforce a quick peace, as demonstrated in Afghanistan, Côte d'Ivoire, Iraq and Sri Lanka. The year demonstrated that intra-state conflicts can be brought to an end only through sustained and comprehensive external engagement. As illustrated by the peace agreements in 2003 in Liberia and Sudan, external assistance, mediation and support are vital to help bring warring parties to a negotiated end to conflict.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, Africa, Sudan, Indonesia, Middle East, India, Asia, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Colombia, Liberia, and Burundi

3028. Economic survey of Korea, 2004

Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
Korea has been one of the fastest growing economies in the OECD area over the past five years, with an annual growth rate of about 6 per cent. Such rapid growth, which has lifted per capita income to two-thirds of the OECD average, reflects Korea's underlying dynamism and its progress in implementing a wide-ranging reform programme in the wake of the 1997 crisis. However, the recession in 2003 – which was due in part to structural problems in the labour market and in the corporate and financial sectors – indicates that the reform agenda is unfinished. Sustaining rapid growth over the medium term as the contribution from inputs of labour and capital slows requires further progress in structural reform, particularly in the labour market and in the corporate and financial sectors, accompanied by appropriate macroeconomic policies.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Asia and Korea

3029. Is China "Exporting Deflation"?

Author:
Steven B. Kamin, Mario Marazzi, and John W. Schindler
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
In the past few years, observers increasingly have pointed to China as a source of downward pressure on global prices. This paper evaluates the theoretical and empirical evidence bearing on the question of whether China's buoyant export growth has led to significant changes in the inflation performance of its trading partners. This evidence suggests that the impact of Chinese exports on global prices has been, while non-negligible, fairly modest. On a priori grounds, our theoretical analysis suggests that China's economy is still too small relative to the world economy to have much effect on global inflation: a back-of-the-envelope calculation puts that effect at about 1/3 percentage point in recent years. In terms of the empirical evidence, we identify a statistically significant effect of U.S. imports from China on U.S. import prices, but given the size of this effect and the relatively low share of imports in U.S. GDP, the ultimate impact on the U.S. consumer prices has likely been quite small. Moreover, imports from China had little apparent effect on U.S. producer prices. Finally, using a multi-country database of trade transactions, we estimate that since 1993, Chinese exports lowered annual import inflation in a large set of economies by 1/4 percentage point or less on average, similar to the prediction of our theoretical model.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Asia

3030. Free Trade and the 2004 Presidential Race

Author:
Claude Barfield
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Senator John Kerry and President George W. Bush offer distinct visions of how free trade would operate for the next four years. Senator Kerry has staked out a more unilateralist position with promises to review all trade agreements to strengthen labor and environmental sanctions, while President Bush reinstated trade promotion authority and expanded free trade agreements. The next president will face challenges regarding the WTO Doha Round and markets in Latin America and Asia.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Democratization, and Economics
Political Geography:
Asia and Latin America