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3011. Prospects Brighten for Long-term Peace in South Asia

Author:
Rafiq Dossani
Publication Date:
11-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
Ever since 1998, the year of India and Pakistan's nuclear tests, many commentators have argued that, in the absence of U.S. intervention, the two nations are headed for armed conflict that will likely end in nuclear war. The logic underlying this view is twofold. First, that religious radicalism—defined as the participation in political and/or military activities by groups in the name of religion—has become sufficiently powerful in Pakistan to make ongoing support for the Kashmir insurgency inevitable. Second is that India's concurrent growth of nationalism and religious radicalism, as well as a rise in economic power, will make the state less willing to tolerate Pakistan's support for insurgency in Kashmir. Against this seemingly inevitable clash, Pakistani President Musharraf is viewed as a lonely holdout against the forces of religious radicalism in Pakistan. U.S. support is therefore argued to be critical for sustaining Musharraf, whether through political support for Pakistan's policies in Kashmir, or economic support. This paper reaches a different conclusion: that peace is about to “break out” between India and Pakistan. Our conclusion is based on the following analysis. First, Islamic radicalism in Pakistan relies (and has always relied) on the army to survive, as it lacks sufficient popularity to influence state policy through political parties or popular agitation. Second, the army has previously supported Islamic radicalism tactically, but not ideologically, providing such support only when it has perceived the state to be in crisis. Contrary to a common view, the elections of 2002 were no different in this respect. Third, Hindu radicalism in India, though gaining in both popular and political support, is insufficiently popular to support irrational aggression against Pakistan. At the same time, India's improved economic prospects have influenced its rulers to favor accommodation with Pakistan. Third, the outcomes of recent elections in India and Pakistan have shifted the Pakistani army's strategic priorities toward negotiating a civilian-military balance, and away from destabilizing civilian politics through “crisis-mode” tactics that have included support for Islamic radicalism.
Topic:
Nationalism, Nuclear Weapons, and Religion
Political Geography:
Pakistan, United States, South Asia, India, Asia, and Kashmir

3012. Challenges for a Post-Election Philippines

Author:
Catherine E. Dalpino
Publication Date:
05-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The outcome of national elections in the Philippines on May 10 is still to be determined. For the past three years, President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo has governed as an appointed head of state in the wake of President Joseph Estrada's forced resignation on corruption charges. Her administration inherited a country in crisis, and it began the critical process of economic stabilization and growth. Economic indicators in the past two years have shown modest progress. In this interim period, the Philippines has been a steadfast ally of the United States in the war against terrorism. These fragile gains could be imperiled if the Philippines does not complete the electoral process in an expeditious and credible manner. Whatever the outcome of the polls, the winner will have little time to lose in addressing a number of short- and long-term problems in the Philippines.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Asia, Philippines, and Southeast Asia

3013. Stability, Security, and Sovereignty in the Republic of Georgia

Author:
David L. Phillips
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The Republic of Georgia suffers from pervasive problems. Popular frustrations boiled over after the November 2, 2003, parliamentary elections, which international observers determined were fraudulent. Facing mass protests and civil disobedience, President Eduard Shevardnadze resigned. The so-called revolution of roses culminated in a peaceful transfer of power when Mikhail Saakashvili assumed the presidency after receiving 96 percent of the vote in a special ballot on January 4, 2004.
Topic:
Security, Democratization, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Central Asia, Asia, and Georgia

3014. Russia and the West

Author:
Michael Emerson and Irina Kobrinskaya
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Russia and the EU talk in their summit communiqués about their strategic partnership, but it seems like an awkward partnership. The relationship is not that bad, certainly not life-threatening, but it is not that good either.
Topic:
Security and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

3015. Human Rights and Post-Conflict Transitional Justice in East Timor

Author:
Taina Järvinen
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The theme of this paper is human rights in East Timor during the United Nations Transitional Administration UNTAET and the first years of the independent Democratic Republic of Timor Leste. Following a brief background on the history of the conflict in East Timor this study focuses on three topics: human rights in institution building, post-conflict environment and human rights, and transitional justice. The term 'human rights' refers here to internationally recognized human rights standards and principles, including the principle of the indivisibility and equal importance of all hum an rights. However, the emphasis is on the rights related to political participation that are often categorized as civil and political rights, whereas economic, social, and cultural rights will not be specifically addressed. This is not to reinforce the ideological divisions concerning human rights left over from the Cold War period, or to suggest that economic, social, and cultural rights are less significant. Indeed, economic, social, and cultural rights are crucial in post-conflict conditions. The focus reflects the definition of human rights used in UN peace operation mandates, where economic, social, and cultural rights have largely been left out, albeit the importance of the promotion of economic and social well-being is recognized in recent UN peacebuilding strategies.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Government, Human Rights, Peace Studies, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Indonesia, Asia, and Timor-Leste

3016. What Is New About Today's EU-Russia Border?

Author:
Vadim Kononenko
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
On May 1st 2004, the EU reshaped its eastern borders by taking on board ten new member states. Among the many neighbours the EU meets across its enlarged borders, Russia occupies a very specific place. With all the talk about the emerging new EU neighbourhood, one may find it paradoxical that Russia is regarded as one of these new neighbours. There seems to be nothing new about Russia and the EU being neighbours, as they have had a common border for nine years already, since the accession of Finland to the EU in 1995. In this regard, the border that emerged in 2004 can be seen as simply a continuation of the existing 1300-km borderland in the north and as a result of the long-planned accession of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland to the European Union. Added to this is the notion that, for all these countries, the existence of a border with Russia had become a reality more than a decade ago, after every legal and political tie with the dissolving Soviet Union had forever been severed. Later, as preparations for these countries to join the Union got underway, they, in order to comply with the EU's Copenhagen criteria for the new applicants, were to transform their external borders and policies according to the EU's Schengen acquis.
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, Poland, Lithuania, Soviet Union, Latvia, and Northern Europe

3017. Russia and Europe: A Finnish View

Author:
Henrikki Heikka
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
In recent months, several prominent Finnish politicians have criticized the Finnish government for lack of vision in its foreign policy. Liisa Jaakonsaari, Chairman of the Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee and a prominent social democrat), has argued that the government “lacks one thing, and with it, everything: a vision”. Member of the European Parliament Alexander Stubb (the Conservative party's vote puller in the last EP elections) has publicly called contemporary Finnish foreign policy as “pitiful tinkering” (säälittävää näpertelyä). Editorial writers have begun to recycle the old the term “driwftwood” (ajopuu), a term originally coined to describe Finland's flip-flopping during World War II, in their attempts to find an appropriate label for the present government's foreign policy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Democratization, Diplomacy, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Finland, and Asia

3018. Partnership for Peace: Charting a Course for a New Era

Author:
Jeffrey Simon
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
After the collapse of the Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) faced a strategic challenge: how to shape the post-Communist reform process in Central and Eastern Europe in ways that would foster stability and allow for cooperation on common security problems. NATO created the North Atlantic Cooperation Council (NACC) in December 1991 to promote dialogue on common security concerns with these countries and the former Soviet Union. The NACC dialogue bridged the former East-West divide and illuminated opportunities for practical cooperation. The council also helped Central and East European politicians understand that defense requirements are best rooted in democratic politics and that national security encompassed civil emergency planning and a broader range of concerns, not just the military.
Topic:
Security, NATO, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Europe, North Atlantic, Asia, and Soviet Union

3019. China Brief, Energy Concerns and China's Unresolved Territorial Disputes

Author:
Matthew Oresman, Drew Thompson, John C.k. Daly, and Harvey Stockwin
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
While much of the world is fixated on China's booming economic growth and its ravenous appetite for energy, untidy diplomatic loose ends in the form of territorial disputes with neighbors have many of the countries bordering the Asian giant nervous. Though Beijing's claims over Taiwan remain the focus of world attention, China is embroiled in unresolved territorial maritime and land issues with no less than thirteen of its neighbors. Given that China's military capability is growing apace with its economy, the potential for military conflict over the disputed regions is similarly on the rise. While China up to now has attempted to address these issues diplomatically, the fact that many of the unresolved border disputes involve potential energy reserves might prompt China to use military force to resolve issues of strategic economic interest.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China, Israel, Taiwan, Beijing, and Asia

3020. China Brief, Beijing's North Korean Gambit

Author:
Willy Lam, Lionel Martin, John Tkacik, and Toby Lincoln
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Beijing is flashing the North Korean (DPRK) card at a time when the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership feels increasingly threatened by an anti-China “containment policy” that Washington is supposedly spearheading with the help of Japan, Taiwan and other Asian countries and regions.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Washington, Israel, Taiwan, Beijing, Asia, and North Korea