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2981. A Currency Basket for East Asia, Not Just China

Author:
John Williamson
Publication Date:
08-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
China recently announced that it is adopting a basket of currencies as the peg for its exchange rate instead of the US dollar. This announcement raises questions of how such a system works, whether other East Asian countries would be advised to follow China in adopting a basket numeraire, and whether it would be advantageous to these countries if they were all to adopt the same basket. This brief answers these questions.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

2982. Prospects for Regional Free Trade in Asia

Author:
Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Yee Wong
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Frustrated with lackluster momentum in the WTO Doha Round and the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum, and mindful of free trade agreement (FTA) networks centered on the United States and Europe, Asian countries have joined the FTA game. By 2005, Asian countries (excluding China) had ratified 14 bilateral and regional FTAs and had negotiated but not implemented another seven. Asian nations are also actively negotiating some 23 bilateral and regional FTAs, many with non-Asian partners, including Australia, Canada, Chile, the European Union, India, and Qatar. China has been particularly active since 2000. It has completed three bilateral FTAs—Thailand in 2003 and Hong Kong and Macao in 2004—and is initiating another 17 bilateral and regional FTAs. However, a regional Asian economic bloc led by China seems distant, even though China accounts for about 30 percent of regional GDP. As in Europe and the Western Hemisphere, many Asian countries are pursuing FTAs with countries outside the region. On present evidence, the FTA process embraced with some enthusiasm in Asia, Europe, and the Western Hemisphere more closely resembles fingers reaching idiosycratically around the globe rather than politico-economic blocs centered respectively on Beijing, Brussels, and Washington.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
United States, China, Europe, Washington, Canada, India, Beijing, Asia, Australia, Qatar, Chile, Hong Kong, Brussels, and Macao

2983. South Korea's Experience with International Capital Flows

Author:
Marcus Noland
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
South Korea's experience is unparalleled in its combination of sustained prosperity, capital controls, and financial crisis. Over several decades South Korea experienced rapid sustained growth in the presence of capital controls. These controls and the delinking of domestic and international financial markets were an essential component of the country's state-led development strategy. As the country developed, opportunities for easy technological catch-up eroded, requiring more sophisticated corporate and financial sector decision making. But decades of financial repression had bequeathed a bureaucratized financial system and a formidable constellation of incumbent stakeholders opposed to transition to a more market-oriented development model. Liberalization undertaken in the 1990s was less a product of textbook economic analysis than of parochial politicking. The capital account liberalization program affected the timing, magnitude, and particulars of the 1997-98 crisis. Despite considerable reforms undertaken since the crisis, concerns remain about both South Korea's lending culture and its authorities' capacity to successfully regulate the more complex financial system. The main lesson of the South Korean case appears to be that while the state-led model may deliver impressive initial gains, transitioning out of this approach presents an exceedingly complex political-economy challenge.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and Emerging Markets
Political Geography:
Asia and South Korea

2984. North Korean Human Rights Act of 2004: Issues and Implementation

Author:
Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
It is an honor to be invited to testify before this committee. We would like to begin our testimony by restating a simple yet compelling point: The absence of human, civil, and political rights in North Korea and the humanitarian disaster that afflicts its population are inextricably linked.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
Asia and North Korea

2985. The Chinese Economy: Prospects and Key Policy Issues

Author:
Morris Goldstein
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
No abstract is available.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Asia

2986. Will Globalization Survive?

Author:
Martin Wolf
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Ours is not the first age of globalization. The decades before the First World War were remarkably similar to our own era. Under the aegis of the United Kingdom and stimulated by a host of technological advances, the world enjoyed an era of liberal trade, remarkably free movement of people, and almost entirely free movement of capital. The world also enjoyed an unprecedented rise in prosperity. According to the economic historian, Angus Maddison, real GDP per head rose at a rate of 1.3 percent a year in the world as a whole between 1870 and 1913. This is not far short of the improvement of the past three decades. As table 1 shows, only Asia and Africa, both victims of colonialism, failed to share in the rising prosperity.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, Globalization, and War
Political Geography:
Africa, United Kingdom, and Asia

2987. China's Role in the Revived Bretton Woods System: A Case of Mistaken Identity

Author:
Nicholas R. Lardy and Morris Goldstein
Publication Date:
03-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
According to a popular argument put forward by three Deutsche Bank economists (Dooley, Folkerts-Landau, and Garber, here after DFG), one needn't worry about the sustainability of either the large US current account deficit or the undervalued exchange rates of a group of Asian economies (Dooley, Folkerts-Landau, and Garber 2003, 2004a, 2004b, 2004c; Folkerts-Landau 2004). In their view, the United States and the Asian economies have entered into an implicit contract—the so-called revived Bretton Woods system (hereafter BW2)—that can comfortably carry on for another decade or two, with significant net benefits to both parties.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

2988. Here There Be Dragons: The Shanghai Cooperation Organization

Author:
Benjamin Goldsmith
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
In the aftermath of Sept. 11, 2001, the task of wiping out radical Islamist groups and their support networks gained a new urgency for the United States. U.S. attention landed squarely on Afghanistan and Central Asia, the home base of Al Qaeda, the Taliban, and several other radical Islamic groups. The war in Afghanistan created the need for large number of U.S. troops in the region and a base from which to operate, while the newly proclaimed “War on Terror” created a strategic interest in maintaining this presence to suppress further Islamic radicalism.
Topic:
Security and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, and Asia

2989. Slower Growth

Author:
John H. Makin
Publication Date:
02-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
The average forecast for 2005 U.S. growth is 3.5 percent, with some prognosticators hoping for 4 percent. This forecast is predicated upon the assumption that the economy is on a sustainable expansion path, where consumption will be supported by steady growth of employment and household incomes. The 3.5 percent growth forecast for 2005 is identical to the mean growth rate of the U.S. economy since 1947. However, there is good reason to believe that the consensus forecast is too high. This possibility has important consequences because U.S. growth must be sustained at least at average levels to avoid a sharp drop in global growth. There are no signs of higher growth in Europe and Asia. Growth in Japan is looking weaker, while Chinese growth is moderating.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, Europe, and Asia

2990. North Korea Triumphs Again in Diplomacy

Author:
Nicholas Eberstadt
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Contrary to conventional wisdom, which holds the North Korean state to be an unremittingly hostile “negotiating partner,” history actually demonstrates that Pyongyang can be a highly obliging interlocutor under certain very specific conditions. All that is necessary to “get to yes” with the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) is to concede every important point demanded by the North Korean side while sacrificing vital interests of one's own. The mid-September “breakthrough” at the six-party talks in Beijing would appear to conform precisely to this long-established pattern. The vaunted outcome—a long-desired “consensus statement” inked by North Korea and the other five governments engaged in protracted discussions over North Korean denuclearization—is being celebrated by diplomatic sophisticates in Seoul, Beijing, Moscow, Tokyo, and Washington.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Washington, Beijing, Asia, North Korea, Tokyo, Korea, and Seoul