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2971. Nepal's Maoists: Their Aims, Structure and Strategy

Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
In less than ten years, the Maoist insurgency has transformed Nepal. The Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) has spread armed conflict across the country and reshaped its political environment irrevocably. But their political aims are still questioned, and not enough is known about their structure and strategy. This background report seeks to fill in many of the gaps, based on close study of their writings and actions and a wide range of interviews, in order to provide policymakers in Nepal and the international community with information and insights needed to approach a peace process realistically.
Topic:
Development and Government
Political Geography:
Asia and Nepal

2972. Authoritarianism and Political Party Reform in Pakistan

Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Although the dangers are evident, the international community continues to support General Pervez Musharraf because of his perceived cooperation in the war on terror, ignoring unconstitutional constraints on the civilian opposition. However, the military's refusal to cede real power to civilians and its marginalisation of moderate parties has boosted religious extremists. Instability is worsening, and sectarian conflict threatens to spin out of control. Lacking robust international support for a democratic transition, mainstream parties struggle to survive, subjected to coercion and violence. They can be the most effective safeguard against the religious lobby's manifestly anti-Western agenda, but only if allowed to function freely in a democratic environment. They need outside help but must also get more serious about reforming themselves.
Topic:
International Relations, Politics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Pakistan and Asia

2973. China and Taiwan: Uneasy Détente

Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
After drifting toward crisis for much of 2004, the outlook for stability across the Taiwan Strait has improved. Constraints on Taiwan pursuing pro-independence initiatives that risk conflict with China will likely remain strong through to the end of President Chen Shui-bian's term of office in 2008. These include a reinvigorated political opposition and Chinese initiatives that have won some poplar support in Taiwan and weakened the drive for independence. Most importantly, the U.S. appears determined to deter not only a Chinese attack but also provocative Taiwan independence moves.
Topic:
International Relations and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, China, Taiwan, and Asia

2974. Afghanistan Elections: Endgame or New Beginning?

Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Elections for Afghanistan's National Assembly and Provincial Councils are a critical opportunity to achieve a sustainable peace in a country that is still emerging from a quarter century of conflict, created and exacerbated by ethnic, sectarian, regional and linguistic divisions. A representative and functional National Assembly could prove a crucial step in stabilising Afghanistan by allowing diversity of voices in decision-making. Provincial Councils could also help extend the authority of central government by introducing legally approved layers of devolution.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Asia

2975. Towards a Lasting Peace in Nepal: The Constitutional Issues

Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Nepal is in the grip of a constitutional crisis. The drafters of the 1990 Constitution hailed it as "the best constitution in the world", ending three decades of absolute monarchical rule by enshrining a multi-party system under a constitutional monarchy. But the nine- year-old Maoist insurgency has cruelly exposed the inherent weaknesses in that settlement, and the royal coup of 1 February 2005 has dealt it a near fatal blow. Constitutional change is a necessary, if not sufficient, element for producing lasting peace. The conflict's root causes can only be addressed by structural change in the state and its governance system. Constitutional issues and the political means by which they are dealt with are crucial to a peace process.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Government, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Asia, Nepal, and Guinea

2976. Nepal: Beyond Royal Rule

Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Nepal is in turmoil and the monarchy is in question. King Gyanendra had calculated that his authoritarian moves since October 2002 would return order to a land wracked by Maoist insurgency and political instability but he has failed. The seven months since the royal coup have seen security degenerate under a royal government with no plans for peace and democracy. The Maoists seized the initiative by announcing a unilateral three month ceasefire on 3 September 2005. The international community needs to recognise that its calls for palace/political party reconciliation as the sole path toward stability are unrealistic. New lines need to be explored, beginning with support for the ceasefire and the tentative dialogue underway between the parties and the Maoists.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:
Asia and Nepal

2977. Football diplomacy

Author:
Anthony Bubalo
Publication Date:
11-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
What is the problem? While Australian governments have successfully built pragmatic ties with Asian leaders, a popular dimension to our engagement with Asia has in many respects been missing. This didn’t matter greatly in the past, but today public opinion is increasingly a factor in foreign policy. Governments must influence individuals as well as elites to address global problems such as terrorism and disease and ‘branding’ has become critical to a state’s ability to attract trade, investment and international political support. But a new opportunity to deepen people-to-people links with Asia has arrived in the form of Australia’s recent admission into the Asian Football Confederation. For the first time, Australia will have a significant sporting relationship with Asia. The question is, how can Australia best use this opportunity to enhance its regional image and engagement?
Topic:
Diplomacy and Government
Political Geography:
Asia and Australia/Pacific

2978. Angels and Dragons: Asia, the UN, reform and the next Secretary-General

Author:
Michael Fullilove
Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The relationship between the UN and Asia can seem unfamiliar and distant. Most of New York's energy is consumed by the Middle East and Africa rather than Northeast, South and Southeast Asia; the international organisation can seem Atlanticist in orientation. On the other side of the Pacific Ocean the strict view of state sovereignty adopted by many Asian capitals leads them to keep the UN at arm's length. As always, however, the story is more complex: we need to differentiate between the UN's work in Asia on the one hand, and Asian behaviour at the UN on the other. Since 1945, the UN has contributed to the Asian security order but only at the margins, its security role circumscribed by power politics and Asian approaches to security. By contrast, Asian states have always been keen to exercise their prerogatives in New York, viewing their UN activities as a marker of sovereignty and a source of prestige. The Brief reviews this history and sets out the current stances of the three major regional powers — China, India, and Japan — towards the UN.
Topic:
International Relations, International Organization, and United Nations
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, India, and Asia

2979. Balancing act: Taiwan's cross-strait challenge

Author:
Malcolm Cook and Craig Meer
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Taiwan is in the middle of a deep social transformation that is redefining the way its people identify themselves, how it sees its place in the world and, most urgently, its relationship with China. Taiwan's metamorphosis, and China's reaction to it, are making it more difficult to maintain peace across the Taiwan Strait. Washington and its regional allies, including Australia, need to understand these changes better and to incorporate responses to them into their policies.
Topic:
International Relations and Democratization
Political Geography:
China, Washington, Taiwan, Asia, and Australia

2980. Australians speak 2005: public opinion and foreign policy

Author:
Ivan Cook
Publication Date:
03-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Australians feel positive and self-confident about Australia's place in the world, but we also have a realistic sense of our limitations and vulnerabilities. A vast majority believe Australia is 'a good international citizen' (82%), 'important in Asia' (82%), and 'well-placed to succeed in a competitive world' (79%), while few agree with the notion that we are 'unimportant in global politics' (37%). But three quarters of respondents also think we are 'vulnerable to external threats' (76%), and while the population is evenly split on whether we are 'independent minded', 65% think we are 'a follower not a leader'.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Asia, Australia, and Australia/Pacific