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2602. China and Taiwan in the South Pacific: diplomatic chess versus Pacific political rugby
- Author:
- Graeme Dobell
- Publication Date:
- 01-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- The competition between China and Taiwan for diplomatic recognition is destabilising island states in the South Pacific, making Pacific politics more corrupt and violent. Solomon Islands offers the clearest evidence of what happens to an island state that becomes a battleground in this contest. Australia is in the front line in the South Pacific. Australia is budgeting billions of dollars for aid and governance in the South Pacific over the decade. Australia's aims in the region will bring it into sharper conflict with the interests being pursued by China and Taiwan.
- Topic:
- Politics
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, Asia, and Australia/Pacific
2603. The European Union and China
- Author:
- Roberto Menotti
- Publication Date:
- 04-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- The EU is a newcomer to East Asian affairs, but its stake in the region is growing rapidly in light of China's economic clout. The European approach to China's rise differs profoundly from that of the US, due to geopolitical realities and a general belief in the benign effects of economic interdependence.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and Economics
- Political Geography:
- China, East Asia, and Asia
2604. The Korea-US Free Trade Agreement: A Summary Assessment
- Author:
- Jeffrey J. Schott
- Publication Date:
- 08-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- The Korea–United States Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA) is a historic accord that should enhance bilateral economic rela¬tions and reinforce our longstanding partnership on political and security matters. Like any negotiated deal, the KORUS FTA is not the optimal result for either country, but it provides substan¬tial benefits that make Korea and the United States considerably better off than they would be in the absence of the pact.
- Topic:
- Markets
- Political Geography:
- United States, Asia, and North Korea
2605. China and Economic Integration in East Asia: Implications for the United States
- Author:
- C. Fred Bergsten
- Publication Date:
- 03-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- East Asia is clearly, if gradually and unevenly, moving toward regional economic integration. Market forces are leading the process, as firms construct production chains across the area that exploit the comparative advantage of its individual countries. Governments are now moving to build on those forces, and consolidate them, through a series of formal agreements to intensify their economic relationships and start creating an East Asian Community.
- Topic:
- Development and Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia
2606. North Korea's External Economic Relations
- Author:
- Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland
- Publication Date:
- 08-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- North Korea's international transactions have grown since the 1990s famine period. Illicit transactions appear to account for a declining share of trade. Direct investment is rising, but the county remains significantly dependent on aid to finance imports. Interdependence with South Korea and China is rising, but the nature of integration with these two partners is very different: China's interaction with North Korea appears to be increasingly on market-oriented terms, while South Korea's involvement has a growing noncommercial or aid component. These patterns have implications for North Korea's development, the effectiveness of UN sanctions, and its bargaining behavior in nuclear negotiations.
- Topic:
- Markets and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and North Korea
2607. Measurement and Inference in International Reserve Diversification
- Author:
- Anna Wong
- Publication Date:
- 07-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- This paper analyzes international reserve diversification by examining changes in quantity shares of currencies held in foreign exchange reserves. It discusses alternative methodologies for constructing quantity shares and applies the preferred methodology to three sets of data on the currency composition of foreign exchange reserves: quarterly aggregate International Monetary Fund's Composition of Foreign Exchange Reserves (IMF COFER) data, quarterly IMF COFER data for industrial- and developing-country groups, and annual data for 23 individual countries that disclose the currency composition of their foreign exchange reserve holdings. What can one infer from available data about the diversification of foreign exchange reserves since 1999? The analysis suggests four conclusions: (1) The behavior of the quantity shares of the US dollar and the euro in total reserves is consistent with net stabilizing intervention; their quantity shares tend to rise when these currencies are declining and vice versa. (2) The principal driver of this stabilizing diversification over the period 1999Q1–2005Q4 is Japan. (3) The industrial countries as a group but excluding Japan do not indicate stabilizing diversification. (4) The nonindustrial countries as a group display stabilizing diversification over short periods of only a few quarters. In summary, the aggregate data conceal much diversity in the practices of individual countries.
- Topic:
- Economics, Foreign Exchange, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, and Asia
2608. A (Lack of) Progress Report on China's Exchange Rate Policies
- Author:
- Morris Goldstein
- Publication Date:
- 06-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- This working paper assesses the progress made in improving China's exchange rate policies over the past five years (that is, since 2002). I first discuss four indicators of progress on China's external imbalance and its exchange rate policies—namely, the change in (and level of) China's global current account position, movements in the real effective exchange rate of the renminbi (RMB), the role of market forces in the determination of the RMB, and China's compliance with its obligations on exchange rate policy as a member of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). I then discuss why the lack of progress in improving China's exchange rate policies matters for the economies of the China and the United States and for the international monetary and trading system. I also argue that several popular arguments and excuses for why more cannot be accomplished on removing the large undervaluation of the RMB are unpersuasive. Finally, I consider what can and should be done by China, the United States, and the IMF to accelerate progress over the next year or two.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Foreign Exchange
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Asia
2609. From Industrial Policy to Innovative Policy: Japan's Pursuit of Competitive Advantage
- Author:
- Marcus Noland
- Publication Date:
- 05-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Japan faces significant challenges in encouraging innovation and entrepreneurship. Attempts to formally model past industrial policy interventions uniformly uncover little, if any, positive impact on productivity, growth, or welfare. The evidence indicates that most resource flows went to large, politically influential “backward” sectors, suggesting that political economy considerations may be central to the apparent ineffectiveness of Japanese industrial policy.
- Topic:
- Development, Foreign Exchange, and Industrial Policy
- Political Geography:
- Japan and Asia
2610. Offshoring, Outsourcing, and Production Relocation-Labor—Market Effects in the OECD Countries and Developing Asia
- Author:
- Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
- Publication Date:
- 04-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- This working paper evaluates the validity of available data on and the extent of the impact of offshoring on service-sector labor markets in the United States, EU-15, and Japan. A three-tier data validity hierarchy is identified. The impact of offshoring on employment in the three regions is found to be limited. Correspondingly, developing Asia is unlikely to experience large employment gains as a destination region. The paper highlights the case of the Indian IT industry, where the majority of job creation has been in local Indian companies rather than foreign multinationals. Domestic entrepreneurs have played a crucial role in the growth of the Indian IT-related service industry. However, increased tradability of services and associated skill bias in favor of higher skilled workers could have an uneven employment impact on developing Asia. Some high-skilled groups are benefiting and will continue to benefit dramatically from new employment opportunities and rising wage levels. Meanwhile, the same skill bias may eliminate many employment opportunities for unskilled or low-skilled groups in the region. Developing Asian countries therefore face a double educational challenge in the coming years: the need to simultaneously improve both primary and higher education.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, Economics, and Industrial Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, and Asia