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2541. A Changing Paradigm of U.S.-East Asian Relations: Strategic and Economic Perspectives

Author:
Terence Roehrig
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:
International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:
There is little doubt that portions of the strategic and economic paradigm in East Asia and for U.S.-East Asia relations have in general been changing in dramatic ways for the past ten to fifteen years. Several contributing factors are well known: China's economic rise along with the potential strategic and political role it is likely to play in the future; the possibility of a more assertive Japan that may revise its constitution in an effort to become a “normal” country; and South Korea, in possession of greater economic, military and political power accompanied by the confidence to be a more significant player in the region. Moreover, even the notion of “East Asia” may be less and less relevant as economic integration is no longer bound by old geographic delineations, particularly with the region's growing economic and political ties with Southeast Asia and India, ties that are breaking down some of these regional distinctions. Finally, the United States is facing a more confident and multipolar Asia that is organizing to play a greater role in controlling its future and increasingly will require a different approach than in the past.
Political Geography:
United States, India, East Asia, Asia, Angola, and Southeast Asia

2542. UKRAINE AND NATO: The Policy and Practice of Co-operating with the Euro-Atlantic Security Community

Author:
Nienke de Deugd
Publication Date:
06-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Security Studies
Abstract:
The opening lines of the national anthem of Ukraine are a reflection of the country's history. For much of its past, Ukraine was divided between, and subjected by, such powerful neighbours as the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, the Habsburg Empire, Poland, the Russian Empire and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR). It was only on 24 August 1991, amidst the epochal events that characterised the end of the Cold War, that the country regained its independence.
Topic:
NATO and Cold War
Political Geography:
Ukraine and Asia

2543. Foreign Military Bases in Eurasia

Author:
Zdzislaw Lachowski
Publication Date:
06-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
On 16 August 2004 the President of the United States, George W. Bush, announced that some 60 000–70 000 US troops stationed in Asia and Europe would be returned to the USA over the coming decade. This realignment of forces signals a major change in US global and regional policies that will affect the structure of US and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) base deployment (referred to as 'basing' or 'forward basing' by the military) throughout the world. In the 1990s Russia had begun pulling out of its cold war spheres of influence, but it either halted or began to reverse its base withdrawal process at almost the same time as Bush's plan was made known.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Eurasia, and Asia

2544. From Alamogordo to Reliable Replacement Warheads

Author:
Leo A. Grünfeld and Francesca Sanna-Randaccio
Publication Date:
12-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The paper discusses three important legacies that the first nuclear age, that of the Cold War, left behind: (1) the recurrent attempts at threat inflation and the corresponding politics of fear; (2) enormous stocks of poorly protected weapons and fissile materials; and (3) a vision of a world free of nuclear weapons. It goes on to explain the characteristics of the second nuclear age, a notion that Paul Bracken introduced after the testing in South Asia in 1998. Finally, it discusses two basic conditions for the international non-proliferation regime to function effectively: leadership and compatibility with the distribution of power in the international system. The latter is primarily about the rise of Asia in international affairs.
Topic:
International Cooperation and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
United States and Asia

2545. L'analyse de la « rivalité » dans les relations internationales. Le cas de l'Inde et de la Chine

Author:
Renaud Egreteau
Publication Date:
12-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
L'émergence de la Chine et de l'Inde suscite depuis peu de nombreux débats scientifiques. Caractérisé par le développement de la croissance, des échanges commerciaux et des dépenses militaires, par la possession d'un arsenal nucléaire et par la revendication d'ambitions diplomatiques mondiales, l'essor des deux géants asiatiques suscite la fascination et l'inquiétude. Entre les lieux communs, l'imaginaire collectif et les travaux scientifiques, l'air du temps est aux interrogations quant à l'avenir de l'Asie et à l'évolution des puissances indienne et chinoise. Après avoir brièvement décrit leur émergence concrète sur la scène internationale, nous essaierons d'analyser la montée en puissance des deux géants et leur éventuelle trajectoire de collision au regard d'un concept peu développé dans les relations internationales, celui de « rivalité ». L'étude de ce phénomène, qui s'est constitué en objet de recherche théorique dans les années 1990, nous permettra de voir si l'Inde et la Chine peuvent se concevoir comme des « puissances rivales ».
Topic:
International Political Economy
Political Geography:
China, India, and Asia

2546. The Role of China in Asia: Engine, Conduit, or Steamroller?

Author:
Beth Anne Wilson, Jane T. Haltmaier, Shaghil Ahmed, Brahima Coulibaly, Ross Knippenberg, Sylvain Leduc, and Mario Marazzi
Publication Date:
09-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This paper assesses China's role in Asia as an independent engine of growth, as a conduit of demand from the industrial countries, and as a competitor for export markets. We provide both macroeconomic and microeconomic evidence. The macroeconomic analysis focuses on the impact of U.S. and Chinese demand on the output of the Asian economies by estimating growth comovements and VARs. The results suggest an increasing role of China as an independent source of growth. The microeconomic analysis decomposes trade into basic products, parts and components, and finished goods. We find a large role for parts and components trade consistent with China playing an important and increasing role as a conduit. We also estimate some regressions that show that China's increasing presence in export markets has had a negative effect on exports of some products for some other Asian economies, but not for other products, including those of the important electronic high-technology industry.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

2547. Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Export Prices: Assessing Some Cross-Country Evidence

Author:
Robert Vigfusson, Nathan Sheets, and Joseph Gagnon
Publication Date:
09-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
A growing body of empirical work has found evidence of a decline in exchange rate pass-through to import prices in a number of industrial countries. Our paper complements this work by examining pass-through from the other side of the transaction; that is, we assess the exchange rate sensitivity of export prices (denominated in the exporter's currency). We first sketch out a streamlined analytical model that highlights some key factors that determine pass-through. Using this model as reference, we find that the prices charged on exports to the United States are more responsive to the exchange rate than is the case for export prices to other destinations, which is consistent with results in the literature suggesting that import price pass-through in the U.S. market is relatively low. We also find that moves in the exchange rate sensitivity of export prices over time have been significantly affected by country and region-specific factors, including the Asian financial crisis (for emerging Asia), deepening integration with the United States (for Canada), and the effects of the 1992 ERM crisis (for the United Kingdom).
Topic:
Economics, Foreign Exchange, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, Canada, and Asia

2548. Legacy Agenda: The Future of the Bush Doctrine, Part II: The Bush Doctrine and the Long War

Author:
Thomas Donnelly and Colin Monaghan
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
The White House has recently taken important steps to ensure that the tenets of the Bush Doctrine endure beyond the end of President George W. Bush's administration, including a new strategy in Iraq and an increase in the size of U.S. land forces. But as time grows short, the president needs to attend closely to three matters. The first of these—a surge in U.S. efforts in Afghanistan—was discussed in the February 2007 edition of National Security Outlook, is a need as obvious and pressing as Iraq and an important factor in the urgency of rebuilding land forces, especially the Army. The second and third factors are less frequently discussed but essential for the long-term viability of the Bush Doctrine and the continuation of the Pax Americana: articulating a strategy for the “Long War” in the greater Middle East and devising a genuinely global response to the rise of China. This issue of National Security Outlook is devoted to the second factor, the strategy for winning the Long War in the Middle East.
Topic:
Government, National Security, and War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, China, Iraq, America, Middle East, and Asia

2549. Legacy Agenda: The Future of the Bush Doctrine, Part I

Author:
Thomas Donnelly
Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
With the recent announcements of a new strategy for Iraq and a commitment to begin increasing the size of U.S. land forces, the White House has taken two important steps to ensure that the tenets of the Bush Doctrine endure beyond the end of President George W. Bush's administration. Since 9/11 and indeed since the beginning of this administration, strategy has been made by an odd combination of ad hoc improvisation and expansive rhetoric. The day-to-day business of fitting means to ends and filling in the policy blanks has either been delegated to subordinates, left to the bureaucracy, or put in the “too hard” box. As time grows short, Bush needs to attend closely to three further matters. The first is as obvious and pressing as Iraq and an important factor in the need to rebuild land forces, especially the Army: a surge in U.S. efforts in Afghanistan. The second and third factors are less frequently discussed but essential for the long-term viability of the Bush Doctrine and the continuity of the Pax Americana: articulate a strategy for the “long war” in the greater Middle East and devise a genuinely global response to the rise of China. This issue of National Security Outlook begins a series devoted to these three measures of the enduring meaning of the Bush Doctrine.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and National Security
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, China, Iraq, America, and Asia

2550. The Vagaries of the Presidential Succession

Author:
Leon Aron
Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Russian president Vladimir Putin's term expires in March 2008. Despite the propaganda barrage designed to persuade everyone of an orderly change of government, the coming Russian presidential succession is far from a done deal. The stability and legitimacy that flow from democratic arrangements are compromised when these arrangements are weakened, as happened under Putin, ushering in uncertainty and risk.
Topic:
Corruption and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Eastern Europe, and Asia