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2442. NORTH KOREA: THE ART OF SURVIVAL
- Author:
- Peter Brezán
- Publication Date:
- 02-2008
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Issues: Slovak Foreign Policy Affairs
- Institution:
- Slovak Foreign Policy Association
- Abstract:
- The very frequent downs of North Korean domestic socio-economic and political development determine the political and security situation, not only in the region of Northeast Asia, but also globally. Despite the effort of the international community, most of the issues regarding North Korea have not been solved and some have not even been addressed, largely due to the uncooperative and 'stubborn' attitude of DPRK leadership. This article argues that as long as the current leader, Kim Jong Il, is in power in North Korea promoting the ideology and realizing the policy that his late father imposed, the internal affairs and foreign policy of this isolated country will not mark any positive progress in the years to come.
- Political Geography:
- Asia and North Korea
2443. China's Economic Fluctuations: Implications for its Rural Economy
- Author:
- Albert Keidel
- Publication Date:
- 01-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Since market reforms began in 1978, China's economy has shown cyclical fluctuations. These cycles of change appear in obvious statistical patterns-faster growth and then slower growth, higher price inflation and then lower inflation, stronger investment flows and then weaker investment-and all are accompanied by other cyclical fluctuations in a range of variables and policy initiatives. Most of these fluctuations tend to move together. Their beauty is that they allow analysis of which fluctuations influence others and, by extension, which policies might make a difference in managing China's economy. In this regard, the cyclical interaction between China's formal urban economy and its rural economy is particularly relevant for the issues facing Chinese policy makers today.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
2444. U.S.-China Energy Security Cooperation Dialogue
- Publication Date:
- 03-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The 2007 U.S.-China Energy Security Cooperation Dialogue was held in a period when a broad range of activities and policy recommendations have been proposed to address global energy security and environmental issues. The Dialogue identifi ed a number of further steps that China and the United States could cooperatively undertake to accelerate developments.
- Topic:
- Economics, Energy Policy, Environment, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Asia, and North America
2445. U.S.-China Cooperation on Clean and Efficient Transportation
- Publication Date:
- 05-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Because of their significant contribution to global demand for improved living standards, meaningful actions by the United States and China on transportation and energy will be important in any effort to reduce global consumption of traditional energy sources. Together the United States and China consume 40% of the world's energy and are responsible for 50% of the world's greenhouse gas emissions. Given their economic size and impact on global markets, it is imperative that the U.S. and China join in a mutually beneficial process.
- Topic:
- Economics, Energy Policy, Environment, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Asia, and North America
2446. Perspectives on Peace and Security in Korea and Northeast Asia
- Author:
- Patrick Degategno and Joseph Snyder
- Publication Date:
- 03-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The Atlantic Council of the United States published a report entitled A Framework for Peace and Security in Korea and Northeast Asia in April 2007. The report was the culmination of deliberations of a working group of distinguis hed American scholars and practitioners with a wide range of experience on Korea and Northeast Asia and chaired by Ambassador James Goodby and General Jack Merritt. It laid out a program for resolving the North Korean nuclear issue as part of a comprehensive s ettlement of a range of fundamental security, political and economic issues on the Korean peni nsula. The working group first met in June 2006, shortly before the North Koreans test fire d a series of missiles and about three months prior to the time Pyongyang exploded its firs t, and so far only, nuclear weapon on October 9. At the time the project began, the Six-P arty talks were suspended and prospects for a peaceful solution to the North Korean nuclear issue looked dim.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, Nuclear Weapons, and Authoritarianism
- Political Geography:
- United States, Asia, North Korea, and Korea
2447. The Asian Financial Crisis, Uphill Flow of Capital, and Global Imbalances: Evidence from A Micro Study
- Author:
- Brahima Coulibaly and Jonathan Millar
- Publication Date:
- 08-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- This study assesses the role of the Asian Önancial crisis of the late 1990s in the emergence and persistence of the large current account surpluses across non-China emerging Asia, which have been a signiÖcant counterpart to the U.S. current account deÖcit. Using panel data encompassing nearly 3,750 Örms, we trace the current account surpluses to a marked and broad-based decline in corporate expenditures on Öxed investment in the aftermath of the crisis that cuts across a wide spectrum of countries, industries, and Örms. The lower corporate spending in turn depressed aggregate investment rates, widened the saving-investment gap, and allowed the region to turn into a net exporter of capital. We then consider the factors behind this reduction in postcrisis corporate investment. While weaker Örm-level fundamentals in the postcrisis period seem to explain part of the drop in investment rates, ongoing re-structuring owing to large debts accumulated and excess investment undertaken in the run-up to the crisis has been the main source of restraint postcrisis corporate investment. The results suggest that even after a decade, the e§ect of the Önancial crisis is still a§ecting corporate investment decisions in emerging Asia, and that as the restructuring completes its course, investment rates will likely rise to contribute to a gradual reduction in the regionís current account surpluses.
- Topic:
- Emerging Markets, Financial Crisis, Economic Inequality, and Investment
- Political Geography:
- Asia
2448. Emerging Market Business Cycles with Remittance Fluctuations
- Author:
- Ceyhun Bora Durdu and Serdar Sayan
- Publication Date:
- 09-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- This paper analyzes the implications of remittance fluctuations for various macroeconomic variables and Sudden Stops. The paper employs a quantitative two-sector model of a small open economy with financial frictions calibrated to Mexican and Turkish economies, two major recipients, whose remittance receipts feature opposite cyclical characteristics. We find that remittances dampen the business cycles in Mexico, whereas they amplify the cycles in Turkey. Their quantitative effects in the long run, approximated by the stochastic steady state are mild. In the short run, however, remittances have quantitatively large impacts on the economy, when the economy is borrowing constrained. This is because agents in the economy cannot adjust their precautionary wealth to sudden tightening in credit, hence, fluctuations in remittances get magnified through an endogenous debt-deflation mechanism. Our findings suggest that procyclical (or countercyclical) remittances can play a significant deepening (or mitigating) role for Sudden Stops.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economics, and Credit
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Asia, North America, and Mexico
2449. The Iranian Intentions behind Joining the Shanghai Cooperation Organization
- Author:
- Michael Bell and Mahjoob Zweiri
- Publication Date:
- 04-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic Studies (CSS)
- Abstract:
- China welcomed Iran’s desire to strengthen cooperation in all spheres with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) following its official application in April 2007 to become a full member. With the SCO currently growing into strategic alliance between several of the worlds leading energy producers and two of its most hungry consumers; the United States saw an opportunity to establish itself in the region and therefore lobbied for observer status in 2005, however the request was denied. Since then, we have seen the SCO assume an ideological mantle of growing anti-Americanism. Committed to establishing a new international political and economic order, the association of East Asian states known as the SCO was founded as an intergovernmental organization in Shanghai on15th June, 2001. Its six founding countries; China, Russia Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, with Iran, Mongolia and Pakistan holding roles as country observers, have asppired to mitigate the influence of US power in the region, therefore Iran’s application for full membbership has crucial, and possibly underlying aspects to its reasoning. Therefore we would like to present some information about the SCO to specifically present the benefits Iran would gain by full membership.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, International Cooperation, Economy, and Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)
- Political Geography:
- China, Iran, Middle East, Asia, and United States of America
2450. Russian-Algerian cooperation and the 'gas OPEC': What's in the pipeline?
- Author:
- Hakim Darbouche
- Publication Date:
- 03-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- President Abdelaziz Bouteflika's statement to Spain's El País1 that the idea of a 'gas-OPEC' should not a priori be excluded, adds to a series of twists, among which was Vladimir Putin's confirmation on 1 February that the idea of a gas cartel was an 'interesting one' worth considering further. Hitherto, this gas saga featured Russia, Algeria, the EU, NATO and Iran. The story revolves around Russian-Algerian mingling on gas matters, spurring European and Transatlantic concerns over the prospects of a 'gas OPEC'. At a time of increasing European dependence on foreign energy supplies, these developments have been interpreted as being part of a wider effort, led by Russia, to use energy as a lever to undermine European diplomacy. These allegations have been dismissed by Algeria and Russia, whose leaders insist that their cooperation is intended to optimise their benefits and those of their customers alike. This paper examines the underpinnings of these developments by assessing the likelihood of their culmination in a gas cartel and offers an insight into the potential policy choices behind them.
- Topic:
- Economics and Energy Policy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia, and Algeria