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2022. Rice Crisis Forensics: How Asian Governments Carelessly Set the World Rice Market on Fire
- Author:
- Tom Slayton
- Publication Date:
- 03-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- The world rice market was aflame last spring and for several months it looked as if the trading edifice that had exhibited such resilience over the last two decades was going to burn to the ground. World prices trebled within less than four months and reached a 30- year inflation-adjusted high. Many market observers thought the previous record set in 1974 would soon be toast. The fire was man-made, not the result of natural developments. While the governments in India, Vietnam, and the Philippines did not to set the world market on fire, that was the unintended result of their actions which threatened both innocent bystanders (low-income rice importers as far away as Africa and Latin America) and, ultimately, poor rice consumers at home. This paper describes what sparked the fire and the accelerants that made a bad situation nearly catastrophic. Fortuitously, when the flames were raging at peak intensity, rain clouds appeared, the winds [market psychology] shifted, and conditions on the ground improved, allowing the fire to die down. It remains to be seen, however, if the trading edifice has been seriously undermined by the actions of decision makers in several key Asian rice exporting and importing countries. In describing the cascading negative effects of these seemingly rational domestic policies, this paper aims to help policy makers in the rice exporting and importing nations to avoid a repeat of the disastrous price spike of 2008.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Economics, Health, Humanitarian Aid, Markets, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Africa, India, Asia, and Latin America
2023. Pakistan and the Future of U.S. Policy
- Author:
- Malou Innocent
- Publication Date:
- 04-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- A spreading Islamic insurgency engulfs the amorphous and ungoverned border between Afghanistan and Pakistan. After initial victories by the United States and the Northern Alliance in autumn 2001, hundreds of Taliban and al Qaeda fighters fled Afghanistan to seek refuge across the border in Pakistan's rugged northwest. Since 2007, the number of ambushes, militant offensives, and targeted assassinations has risen sharply across Afghanistan, while suicide bombers and pro-Taliban insurgents sweep through settled areas of Pakistan at an alarming pace. For better and for worse, Pakistan will remain the fulcrum of U.S. policy in the region—its leaders continue to provide vital counterterrorism cooperation and have received close to $20 billion in assistance from the United States, yet elements associated with its national intelligence agency, Inter-Services Intelligence, covertly assist militant proxy groups destabilizing the region
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Islam, and War
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, South Asia, and Asia
2024. Indian Involvement in Afghanistan: Stepping Stone or Stumbling Block to Regional Hegemony?
- Author:
- Melanie Hanif
- Publication Date:
- 04-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Global and Area Studies
- Abstract:
- Due to its geo-strategic location between the Central Asian, South Asian, and Middle Eastern security complexes, Afghanistan is often defined as an insulator state, and sometimes also as a connector. This in-between position has led to constant instability: ever since the creation of the Durrani Empire, the country has suffered from internal power struggles as well as outside interference. External attempts to control Afghanistan have nonetheless proven extremely difficult. This also holds true for the current conflict management efforts of the US-led coalition. But what could the alternatives be? This paper seeks to explore the prospect of regional security cooperation as a path towards stability for Afghanistan. Although the academic debate has thus far not considered Afghanistan as a primarily South Asian country, I will focus on the South Asian subsystem for three reasons: Firstly, current security matters in Afghanistan are highly connected to the situation in Pakistan. Secondly, with its accession to the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), Afghanistan has shown an interest in establishing stronger ties with South Asia. Thirdly, India as a rising regional power is the only country in the region that might possess the capabilities, the willingness, and the legitimacy for a long-term engagement in Afghan security.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, South Asia, India, and Asia
2025. The Outlook for Tokyo: New Opportunities or Long-term Decline for Japan's Financial Sector?
- Author:
- Vanessa Rossi
- Publication Date:
- 03-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- Japan's economy has suffered exceptional damage because of its high level of exposure to the massive downturn in world trade and investment, notably impacting on demand for cars, consumer electronics and investment equipment. The depth of Japan's recession looks set to be far worse than that of the US and the EU. However, the recession has also radically reshaped the global financial environment in ways that suggest unexpected opportunities for Japanese financial institutions and markets. This report reviews the outlook for Tokyo as a financial centre and the role of Japan's financial sector in the light of domestic targets as well as international trends and competition.
- Topic:
- Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, Europe, Israel, Asia, and Tokyo
2026. Options for a Democratic Taiwan
- Author:
- Kerry Brown
- Publication Date:
- 03-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- Over the last two decades, as Mainland China has been developing and liberalizing its economy, Taiwan has been undergoing an equally remarkable but very different political transformation, from martial law in 1987 to its current status as one of the most vibrant, stable democracies in Asia. Despite its eventful experience of the democratization process, the parliamentary and presidential elections in 2008 proved that Taiwan is now a mature, and stable, democracy. It has passed the ultimate test, seeing the successful transition of rule from one party to another and back again, without social turmoil. Economic performance over the same period has been less striking. Once among the fastestgrowing economies, Taiwan is now afflicted by a relatively low growth rate, and problems over the outflow of capital and investment to the Mainland. The potential for conflict over cross-straits relations remains but it has been significantly reduced under President Ma and by the Mainland Chinese government's greater accommodation with a democratic Taiwan in the last decade. The risk of a military conflict between the two sides, which could drag in the US, and therefore the rest of the world, cannot be entirely discounted, however. Taiwan's greatest challenges in the next decade remain the same as in the last – to maintain its identity, to develop its democratic system, and to handle relations with the Mainland in a way that preserves its interests while avoiding conflict. Taiwan's system, which has so far proved itself robust and effective, faces a new challenge too: how to benefit from the increase in Mainland investment abroad.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Economics, and Markets
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Israel, Taiwan, and Asia
2027. Oil, Gas and International Insecurity: Tackling a Self-fuelling Fire
- Author:
- Daniel Litvin
- Publication Date:
- 03-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- In the United States, European Union and Asia, fears about dependence on oil and gas imports from unstable regions have become a major theme of political debate. This paper provides a high-level and historical perspective on this complex issue. Dependence on oil and gas imports raises real economic- and political-security issues for many countries. Neither the global economic crisis nor climate change policies - both of which look set to restrain oil and gas demand - will solve the problem entirely. In fact, over the next few decades it is likely to become worse.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, and Oil
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, and Asia
2028. Farm Futures: Bringing Agriculture Back to U.S. Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Catherine Bertini and Dan Glickman
- Publication Date:
- 05-2009
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Foreign Affairs
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Hunger remains one of world's gravest humanitarian problems, but the United States has failed to prioritize food aid and agricultural development. Washington must put agriculture at the center of development aid -- and make it a key part of a new U.S. foreign policy.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United States, Washington, and Asia
2029. Indonesia: Radicalisation of the "Palembang Group"
- Publication Date:
- 05-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Indonesia has earned well-deserved praise for its handling of home-grown extremism, but the problem has not gone away. In April 2009, ten men involved in a jihadi group in Palembang, South Sumatra, were sent to prison on terrorism charges for killing a Christian teacher and planning more ambitious attacks. Their history provides an unusually detailed case study of radicalisation - the process by which law-abiding individuals become willing to use violence to achieve their goals. The sobering revelation from Palembang is how easy that transformation can be if the right ingredients are present: a core group of individuals, a charismatic leader, motivation and opportunity. Another ingredient, access to weapons, is important but not essential: the Palembang group carried out its first attack with a hammer and only later moved to making bombs.
- Topic:
- Political Violence and Islam
- Political Geography:
- Asia
2030. Turkey's Local Elections of 2009: Results, Trends and the Future
- Author:
- ALİ ÇARKOĞLU
- Publication Date:
- 05-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
- Abstract:
- This article aims at presenting a descriptive account of the March 2009 local elections in Turkey. Comparing the general and local elections since 2004, an overall evaluation of trends in electoral preferences is presented. Using provincial general council election results, a detailed geographical comparative analysis of the 2004 and 2009 local elections is also carried out. The analyses show that the AKP's rise has stalled but it still remains as the dominant power in the party system. The electoral map continues to be divided between the coastal western and most developed provinces where the opposition is significantly supported, the east and southeastern provinces where the Kurdish ethnic electoral support is rising and the more conservative provinces in between where the AKP continues to be dominant with the MHP trailing behind. Even though the March 2009 elections had all the characteristics of a local election, they also revel the rising trends in electoral behaviour in Turkey.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Asia