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11. China’s economic ‘miracle’ in context

Author:
Derek Scissors
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Contrasting China at various stages of reform to Japan and Korea at analogous stages shows China as less successful. The payoff is personal income, where China’s growth in local currency terms is similar to Japan’s. But it is slower than Korea’s, and, in comparable dollar terms, China is far behind Korea and Japan 40 years into the respective “miracles.” In evaluating key contributors to income gains—agricultural productivity, labor quantity and quality, leveraging, and innovation—China failed to extend education in the first 25 years of reform. A recent failure is the explosion in leveraging in the past decade. Other indicators of success roughly match Japan but trail Korea. China’s size makes it important even with less development success. For example, Chinese research and development spending affects the world while being inadequate to offset aging and indebtedness. When projecting economic size, though, trend extension is misleading. Korea and Japan illuminate how innovation and other factors will alter China’s trajectory.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Economics, and Reform
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Asia, and Korea

12. The Impact of Intranational Trade Barriers on Exports: Evidence from a Nationwide VAT Rebate Reform in China

Author:
Jie Bai and Jiahua Liu
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
It is well known that various forms of non-tariff trade barriers exist within a country. Empirically, it is difficult to measure these barriers as they can take many forms. We take advantage of a nationwide VAT rebate policy reform in China as a natural experiment to identify the existence of these intranational barriers due to local protectionism and study the impact on exports and exporting firms. As a result of shifting tax rebate burden, the reform leads to a greater incentive of the provincial governments to block the domestic flow of non-local goods to local export intermediaries. We develop an open-economy heterogenous firm model that incorporates multiple domestic regions and multiple exporting technologies, including the intermediary sector. Consistent with the model’s predictions, we find that rising local protectionism leads to a reduction in interprovincial trade, more “inward-looking” sourcing behavior of local intermediaries, and a reduction in manufacturing exports. Analysis using micro firm-level data further shows that private companies with greater baseline reliance on export intermediaries are more adversely affected.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, Reform, and Tariffs
Political Geography:
China and Asia

13. Supply-side reform leads to economic resilience

Author:
Qiyuan Xu
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Abstract:
China's GDP grew 6.6 percent in 2018, according to National Bureau o ftatistics data. Despite the slight slowdown in the GDP growth rate, however, exports grew at a relatively high 9.9 percent year-on-year calculated in US dollars. And, not surprisingly, China's trade surplus with the United States expanded further. ...... Besides, the relative prosperity index of small and medium-sized enterprises has dropped to the second-lowest point in a decade, and the financial cost differentiation among various industries is growing. This may have a negative impact on not only short-term macroeconomic stability, but also the development space of relevant emerging industries and long-term growth momentum.
Topic:
Reform, GDP, Economy, Economic growth, and Resilience
Political Geography:
China and Asia

14. Perceiving Truth and Ceasing Doubts: What Can We Learn from 40 Years of China’s Reform and Opening up?

Author:
Fang Cai
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
China’s reform, opening up and resultant economic growth in the past 40 years haveled to the accumulation of an immense array of experiences, which economists areobligated to look into, analyze and theorize upon. In fact, the rich literature in thisarea has positively assessed and documented China’s successful experiences. However,theories that were established in Western countries have been applied as doctrine tojudge China’s experiences. By adopting an analytical framework unifying historicallogic and theoretical logic, the purpose of this paper is to reveal the unique Chineseexperience and its relevance to the general laws of economic development. Based on theexperiences of and in reference to research findings about China, this paper chroniclesthe process of reform, opening up and economic growth, and analyzes the nexus betweenthem. The study demystifies how the incentive mechanism, the factor accumulation andallocation system, market development, and macro policy environment reforms havespurred China’s economic growth, structural changes and the increase in productivity.The changes in development stage are examined and policy implications for furtherreform are discussed.
Topic:
Reform, Economy, Economic growth, and Trade Policy
Political Geography:
China and Asia

15. India's Social Policies: Recent Changes for the Better and Their Causes

Author:
Joachim Betz
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Despite being a consolidated democracy with free and fair elections and having a political system with intense party competition, a relatively vibrant civil society, and a functioning federal set-up, India still ranks poorly in terms of the coverage, generosity, efficiency, and quality of its social protection. This is difficult to explain based on the factors usually advanced for the implementation of generous social policies. A second puzzle is the predominantly protective nature of welfare policies in India in the current era of globalisation, which should necessitate policies enabling workers to participate successfully in a more demanding economic environment. These puzzles may be explained partly by (a) the long-term insulation of the Indian economy from international competition, (b) the low share of industry and modern services in GDP until recently, (c) the precedence of identity policies, (d) the fragmentation of the political sphere, and (e) the meagre empowerment of women in India. We should, however, acknowledge that change is underway and that the picture is not bleak across India as a whole – being supported by economic reforms and growth, a greater degree of decentralisation and party competition within the country, increasingly discerning voters, and progress on female education and employment opportunities.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Reform, Democracy, Social Policy, and Welfare
Political Geography:
India and Asia

16. Theocracy vs Constitutionalism in Japan: Constitutional Amendment and the Return of Pre-war Shinto Nationalism

Author:
Naoko Kumada
Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS)
Abstract:
This paper offers an understanding of the scope, nature, and context of constitutional change being proposed in Japan today, in internal terms rather than through external reconstruction. Rather than being a mere reaction to “external circumstances”, as portrayed by its apologists and by “realist/rational-reconstructionist” analysis, the movement to amend and replace the Constitution is a project with a history, underpinned by a worldview and driven by an ideology that provide it with its own momentum. The most overlooked aspect of the movement is religion. From the Meiji Restoration until the end of the War, Japan was governed through a religio-political system based on a newly invented State Shintoism. The scope and intent of today’s movement to amend/replace the Constitution cannot be understood without this background in mind. Failure to account for the ideological, cultural, historical, and indeed the constitutional dimensions of the issue seriously underplays the stakes for Japan and its neighbours. The constitutional movement is part of a multi-generational project to restore what its leaders declare to be the “true shape of Japan”, with the pre-war religious ideology and constitutional form that they deem to have been unjustly replaced by the US occupation administration after Japan’s defeat.
Topic:
Imperialism, Reform, Constitution, and Domestic politics
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, Asia, and Asia-Pacific

17. Xi Jinping and PLA Transformation through Reforms

Author:
You Ji
Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS)
Abstract:
China’s five-year plan of PLA reform marked a new page in the history of PLA transformation. This article will analyse two major aspects of this round of unprecedented PLA reforms: (i) the politics of the military reform; and (ii) the PLA’s efforts to reshape its force establishments, organisational structure, and command chains. The first concerns Xi’s political leadership and the second draws a roadmap to remould the PLA by 2020. By now the reform has yielded substantial achievements: (i) the overhaul of the apex of power; (ii) the reshaping of the mid-level command chains of the war zone and service; and (iii) the restructuring of the overall force establishments. It has also created some transitional uncertainties as well.
Topic:
Military Affairs, Reform, Political structure, and transnationalism
Political Geography:
China and Asia

18. Burma: Suu Kyi’s Missteps

Author:
Zoltan Barany
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Democracy
Institution:
National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:
Following the victory of the National League for Democracy (NLD) in November 2015 elections, many vested their hopes in the NLD’s leader, Nobel Peace Prize–laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, whom they saw as a force that would propel Burma toward democratic transition. Constitutional constraints have severely limited Suu Kyi’s power to transform Burma’s political life, with the military continuing to be the most politically influential institution. Even given these limitations, however, Suu Kyi has thus far disappointed her supporters at home and especially abroad. Economic reforms have come slowly, democratic standards have slipped, and Suu Kyi and her government have faced international condemnation for their treatment of the Rohingya Muslim minority.
Topic:
Reform, Elections, Democracy, and Transition
Political Geography:
Asia, Burma, and Myanmar

19. China's plans and direction for further opening-up

Author:
Yang Panpan
Publication Date:
08-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
This year marks the 40th anniversary of China's reform and opening-up, and will be the first year for China to hold the international import expo. This signals that China is further opening up its domestic market and striving to be more integrated with the world. Meanwhile, China is enduring the external uncertainties mainly from its biggest trade partner -- the U.S. One question should be asked: What is China's plan and direction for further opening-up? Since China is shifting from a mid-high-income country to a high-income country, the trajectory of other major developed countries may be a reference for China's further opening-up process. With this in mind, it's necessary to compare the opening-up pattern of these countries with China. One variable might fit this kind of observation -- the foreign value added in one country's final demand. This represent the amount of foreign input used in a country's consumption and investment. Examples include final goods consumed by households, capital goods invested by firms, or intermediate goods used to make products.
Topic:
Markets, Reform, Finance, and Economy
Political Geography:
China and Asia

20. Dual Practice of Public Hospital Physicians in Vietnam

Author:
Ngan Do and Young Kyung Do
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
Although many public hospital physicians in Vietnam offer private service on the side, little is known about the magnitude and nature of the phenomenon of so-called dual practice, let alone the dynamics between the public and private health sectors. This study investigates how and to what degree public hospital physicians engage in private practice. It also examines the commitment of dual practitioners to the public sector. The analysis is based on a hospital-based survey of 483 physicians at 10 public hospitals in four provinces of Vietnam. Nearly half of the participants in the study sample reported themselves as dual practitioners. Various types of private practice were mentioned. Private practice at health facilities owned by the private sector was the most prevalent, followed by private practice delivered at health facilities owned by the dual practitioners themselves. Private practice inside public hospitals was also noted. Dual practitioners were likely to be senior and hold management positions inside their public hospitals. Substantial income differences were found between dual practitioners and those physicians practicing in only the public sector. The majority of dual practitioners, however, reported the willingness to give up private practice if certain conditions were met, such as a basic salary increase or non-pecuniary benefits. The main reasons dual practitioners gave for not leaving the public sector included a sense of public responsibility and opportunities to gain a broader professional network and more training. This study reiterates the significant challenges associated with dual practice, including its financial implications and possible effects on health care quality and access. The need for a high-quality workforce committed to the public sector is particularly critical, given the possibility of universal insurance coverage. Future research should address the need to improve data collection on physicians’ dual practice and incorporate the topic in policy debates on health reform.
Topic:
Health, Health Care Policy, Reform, and Hospitals
Political Geography:
Asia and Vietnam