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111. Whither the Six-Party Talks?

Author:
Scott Snyder, Ralph Cossa, and Brad Glosserman
Publication Date:
05-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
It has been nine months since the fourth round of Six-Party Talks concluded with a joint statement of principles. Unfortunately that statement now appears to be the high-water mark of the six-party process rather than a baseline for future negotiations. Even if the prospects for near-term movement on the negotiating front appear slim, the process may still prove useful as a crisis management tool until negotiations are once again possible.
Topic:
International Relations, Nuclear Weapons, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Asia

112. Upping the Ante - The North Korean Nuclear Deterrent

Author:
Martin Rødbro
Publication Date:
07-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
A party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) since 1985, North Korea in 2003 admitted that the country had nuclear weapons; a message that stunned the world. The announcement was made following a long conflict with the International Community (IC) where first the North Korean regime had limited International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspections in 1992 and since had been playing a dangerous tit-for-tat game with the IC over its nuclear program.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Asia and North Korea

113. The U.S.-India Nuclear Deal: Triumph of the Business Lobby

Author:
Subrata Ghoshroy
Publication Date:
09-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:
South Asia has come a long way since the days of SEATO and CENTO1 —the U.S.- sponsored pacts to contain China and keep India under check. Gone are the days when the Seventh Fleet flexed its muscle on the Bay of Bengal in support of a beleaguered Pakistan in its military campaign against the “mukti bahini”—the freedom fighters in erstwhile East Pakistan, now Bangladesh. Once the leader of the non-aligned, the Indian government has not expressed even a whimper of protest about what has been happening to Iraq, Lebanon, or Gaza. India and the United States now are “natural allies,” apparently forged primarily by mutual economic interests. But there was the China factor as well. Although left unsaid, China entered in to the calculation of both India and the United States. The Bush administration is careful not to revive the notion of the Cold War policy of containing China, but many in the Congress are not so reticent. At the same time, the Indian government is equally careful to highlight the growing normalization of relations and the growing trade ties with Beijing. But the clamor in the security community in New Delhi is all about countering China—a topic I heard repeatedly during my recent visit to the region. So its importance cannot be discounted. But the economic incentives of the deal have not earned as much scrutiny, a major oversight in the public discourse.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Deterrence, and Denuclearization
Political Geography:
United States, China, India, Asia, and North America

114. Waiting for Goldilocks: Getting Japan’s Foreign Policy Just Right

Author:
Richard J Samuels
Publication Date:
10-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:
Generations of American parents have read their children a story called "Goldilocks and the Three Bears." It is the story of a young girl who wanders into the bears’ home in the woods. Goldilocks sits on chairs that are too big and too small, before find- ing one that is “just right.” She rejects bowls of their porridge as being too hot and as too cold, until she finds one that is “just right.” Like most children’s stories, Goldilocks is metaphorical. Americans use it to describe the process of finding just the right balance between alternatives that are too extreme. This metaphor captures the challenges awaiting Abe Shinzo, Japan’s new prime minister very nicely—particularly in the areas of foreign and secu- rity policy. His predecessor, Koizumi Junichiro, had already been like Goldilocks in his extended effort to find just the right policy toward North Korea. In his 2002 visit to Pyongyang he explored engagement, only to adopt toward a harder, more confrontational line. If the first was too hot and the second too cold, Abe is left with the responsibility to find a policy toward the DPRK that is “just right.” North Korea’s nuclear weapons test in October 2006 and its July 2006 missile tests certainly do not make this any easier.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

115. Trip Report – DRAFT v. G1

Author:
Jim Walsh
Publication Date:
08-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
This report describes meetings and events that took place in the DPRK (Pyongyang), the PRC (Beijing), and the ROK (Seoul) from June 25th through July 4th, 2005. The report focuses on my meetings in the DPRK, including discussions with. Kim Gae Gwan, Vice Foreign Minister (5.5 hrs) Kim Myung Gil, Deputy Dir. General of the American Depart. (3.3 hrs) Kim Yong-dae, Vice Chair of Presidium of the Supreme People's Assembly (1 hr.) Gen. Ri Chan Bok, Korean People's Army, Rep. to the Panmunjum (1 hr.) Ri Hak Gwon, Vice Chair, Korea Comm. for the Promotion of Intl. Trade (1 hr.) My Foreign Ministry guides were Mr. Hyon and Mr. Hwang.
Topic:
International Relations, Nuclear Weapons, and Politics
Political Geography:
Asia

116. The Defense Monitor: Dear Friends Colleagues

Publication Date:
11-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
Many of you are aware of CDI's 30-year history of research and commentary on U.S. defense topics. You may also have noticed the expanding breadth of our international projects and activities, such as our ground-breaking China Security Bulletin featuring contributions from a retired Chinese general, and a forthcoming report on Russia's defense spending by a Russian scholar who heads our Moscow office. To better reflect our global scope and project diversity, we have created the World Security Institute — which can be thought of as our “holding company.” We felt that this title better describes all of our activities that now encompass a wider definition of “security.”
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Disaster Relief, Government, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Asia, and Moscow

117. Waiting to Exhale: The Six-Party Talks Agreement

Author:
Wade Huntley
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Foreign Policy In Focus
Abstract:
Nuclear nonproliferation advocates worldwide welcomed the joint agreement issued September 19 by the participants in the "Six-Party Talks" process aimed at denuclearizing the Korean peninsula. The agreement evinces not only a commitment by North Korea to end all nuclear weapons development, but also a validation of a negotiated approach to the current Korean nuclear crisis which both North Korea and the United States have, at various times, resisted.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
United States, Asia, and North Korea

118. Uses of Ambiguity in North Korea Agreement

Author:
John Feffer
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Foreign Policy In Focus
Abstract:
On September 19, North Korea agreed to give up its nuclear program. As part of the same agreement, which followed the latest round of the Six Party Talks, the United States pledged not to attack or invade North Korea, to coexist peacefully with the country, and to work toward normalized relations. The United States and other parties to the agreement — China, Japan, Russia, and South Korea — offered to put together an energy package for North Korea.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

119. Feeding the Nuclear Fire

Author:
Zia Mian and M.V. Ramana
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Foreign Policy In Focus
Abstract:
The July 18 joint statement by U.S. President George Bush and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has attracted a great deal of comment. The focus has been on the possible consequences of U.S. promises to support India's nuclear energy program in exchange for India clearly separating its military and civilian nuclear facilities and programs and opening the latter to international inspection.
Topic:
International Relations, Nuclear Weapons, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
United States, India, and Asia

120. Kim Jong Il's Nuclear Winter

Author:
Nicholas Eberststadt
Publication Date:
02-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
North Korea recently announced that it had “manufactured nukes,” that “these weapons” would be kept “for self-defense under any circumstances,” and that Pyongyang would immediately suspend its participation in further six-party denuclearization talks for an indefinite period. So much for probing North Korea's nuclear intentions. That game is now over. With the illusions of the international community's engagement theorists suddenly and nakedly exposed, the rest of us are obliged to face some unpleasant truths about the unfolding proliferation spectacle in the Korean peninsula.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Asia and North Korea