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2. The Importance of the Western Balkans in China’s Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Marcin Przychodniak
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- China’s cooperation with the Western Balkans through the “17+1” format and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), among others, is primarily political. In the economic sphere, Chinese investments are to a large extent only declarations, and trade is marginal in comparison to cooperation with the EU or others. China’s goals are to gain political influence in future EU countries and limit their cooperation with the U.S. Competition with China in the region requires more intense EU-U.S. cooperation, made more difficult by the pandemic.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Investment, and Strategic Competition
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, Asia, and Balkans
3. China’s global investment vanishes under COVID-19
- Author:
- Derek Scissors
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- As expected given COVID-19, China’s construction and, especially, investment around the world plunged in the first half of 2020. The decline may be exaggerated by Chinese firms not wanting to report global activity, but Beijing’s happy numbers are not credible. From what little can be discerned, the Belt and Road Initiative is becoming more important, primarily because rich countries are more hostile to Chinese entities. American policy needs to shift. Incoming Chinese investment is now extremely small, but technology is still being lost due to lack of implementation of export controls. Growing American portfolio investment in China is unmonitored and may support technology thieves, human rights abusers, and other bad actors.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Investment, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
4. China’s global investment in 2019: Going Out goes small
- Author:
- Derek Scissors
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- Chinese investment and construction around the world contracted in 2019, regardless of Beijing’s claims to the contrary. However, the decline is concentrated in large, headline-winning deals, and Chinese firms remain active on a smaller scale. A contraction in acquisitions in rich economies has boosted the relative importance of greenfield spending. The number of countries in the Belt and Road continues to expand, and power plant and transport construction continues to be preeminent. American policymakers were initially spurred to act by intense Chinese investment in 2016. This has dropped sharply, but there are challenges related to investment review that are more important, starting with strengthening export controls.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Economy, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Investment
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
5. The cross-border impacts of China’s official rate shocks on stock returns of Chinese concepts shares listed on U.S. market
- Author:
- Dong Weijia
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- This paper examines a new cross-border effect of an emerging country’s interest rate changes on the stock returns of its domestic firms listed overseas. First, we discover that the increase in China’s official interest rate greatly affects the NYSE-listed Chinese stocks, thereby suggesting that similar to Chinese domestic investors, the institutional investors in a mature market sometimes exhibit irrational sentiment driven by an emerging economy’s unexpected monetary policy shocks. Second, we highlight some novel asymmetric impacts of China’s official rate changes on Chinese concepts stock prices and reveal that these effects differ from the conventional nonlinear effects of monetary policies. For instance, a bull and bear regime has no statistically significant asymmetric effect on NYSE, whereas interest rate rise has different cross-border impact on Nasdaq and NYSE markets. These interesting findings are mainly driven by the smart investors in the U.S. stock market who are knowledgeable about the differences between NYSE- and Nasdaq-listed stocks and carefully analyze the different impacts of China’s official interest rate changes on the fundamentals of different types of Chinese concepts stocks.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, and Investment
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
6. Chinese investments in India
- Author:
- Amit Bhandari, Aashna Agarwal, and Blaise Fernandes
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations
- Abstract:
- Over the last five years, China has quietly created a significant place for itself in India – in the technology domain. While India has refused to sign on to China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), this map shows India's positioning in the virtual BRI to be strategically invaluable for China. Nearly $4 billion in venture investments in start-ups, the online ecosystem and apps have been made by Chinese entities. This is just the beginning; there is much more to come.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Business, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Investment
- Political Geography:
- China, South Asia, India, and Asia
7. A Quantitative Analysis of Disaster Risk Reduction Investment Effects for Sustainable Development: Indonesia Case Study
- Author:
- Hiroaki Ishiwata, Hiroyuki Wada, Koji Suzuki, and Naoto Tada
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- This paper analyses the long-term impacts of large-scale disasters on the economic growth of developing countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Community, by the scale of disaster risk reduction (DRR) investments. As a means of quantitatively analysing the optimal level and economic efficiency of DRR investments, a case study was conducted on Indonesia by using a dynamic stochastic macroeconomic model. The results showed that in Indonesia, although greater economic growth is expected when additional DRR investments are made, an excessive DRR investment may contrarily lead to a slowdown in economic growth: an optimal level of DRR investment exists and maintaining its level is essential for sustainable economic growth. Furthermore, it was confirmed that there is a break-even point when the amount of accumulated disaster damage mitigation benefits exceeds the amount of accumulated DRR investment. This demonstrated that the funds invested in DRR could be recovered. Additionally, the results also showed that even if no disaster damage is caused over a long period of time, DRR investments are by no means redundant as the ‘ex-ante risk reduction effect’ will be generated when the optimal level of DRR investment is made. Lastly, it was determined that providing a continuous DRR investment is important in achieving the global target set forth in the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. In addition, it is considered desirable to maintain a higher level of DRR investment than that which is currently being implemented.
- Topic:
- Economic growth, Investment, Risk, and Disaster Management
- Political Geography:
- Indonesia, Asia, and Indo-Pacific
8. Assessing the Impacts of Chinese Investments in Cambodia: The Case of Preah Sihanoukville Province
- Author:
- Sovinda Po and Kimkong Heng
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- The past several years have seen an unprecedented inflow of Chinese investments to Cambodia, resulting in a huge increase in the number of Chinese people in this Asian country. Chinese investment projects have previously been concentrated in the Cambodian capital city, Phnom Penh, but the focus has recently been shifted to Sihanoukville, a coastal province of Cambodia. The growing presence of the Chinese, many of whom are business people and migrant workers in Sihanoukville, has brought concerns about potential impacts resulting from Chinese investment projects. Although positive impacts in terms of infrastructure development and job opportunities are apparent, Chinese investments have created numerous issues that have made headlines across various media outlets, both national and international. This analysis aims to assess the impacts of Chinese investment in Cambodia by drawing on data in the form of new reports, commentaries, analyses, and articles published on different media platforms and in academic journals. Taking Sihanoukville as a case study, the analysis shows that, despite economic benefits, Chinese investments have significant negative impacts on Cambodia as a host country of foreign direct investment. Four dimensions of the impact, including political, socio-cultural, environmental, and socio-economic are discussed. The analysis concludes with ways forward for Cambodia and China to ensure that positive rather than negative outcomes are the consequences of Chinese investments in Cambodia.
- Topic:
- Foreign Direct Investment, Investment, and Economic Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and Cambodia
9. Chinese Investments in the US and EU Are Declining—for Similar Reasons
- Author:
- Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- For years China has been one of the world’s most rapidly growing sources of outward foreign direct investment. Since peaking in 2016, however, Chinese outward investments, primarily to the United States but also the European Union, have declined dramatically, especially in response to changes in China’s domestic rules on capital outflows and in the face of rising nationalism in the United States. Concerns about growing Chinese influence in other economies, the ascendant role of an authoritarian government in Beijing, and the possible security implications of Chinese dominance in the high-technology sector have put Chinese outward investments under intense international scrutiny. This Policy Brief analyzes the most recent trends in Chinese investments in the United States and the European Union and reviews recent political and regulatory changes both have adopted toward Chinese inward investments. It also explores the emerging transatlantic difference in the regulatory response to the Chinese information technology firm Huawei. Concerned about national security and as part of the ongoing broader trade friction with China, the United States has cracked down far harder on the company than the European Union.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, National Security, Foreign Direct Investment, and Investment
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America
10. From Failed Economic Interfaces to Political Levers: Assessing China-South Korea Competition and Cooperation Scenarios on North Korean Special Economic Zones
- Author:
- Théo Clément
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
- Abstract:
- While North Korea has developed Special Economic Zones for several decades now, these zones have attracted little attention from foreign investors, due to a mix of lack of economic reforms in the DPRK, the tense geopolitical situation, and China’s peculiar economic engagement towards North Korea. With the denuclearization process and North-South dialogue moving forward, this situation could change as South Korea’s announced policy of economic engagement with the North could provide Pyongyang the opportunity to play Beijing against Seoul to maximize its interests and attract foreign investment in Special Economic Zones from partners keen to maintain close ties with the DPRK.
- Topic:
- Economics, Bilateral Relations, Investment, Trade, and Denuclearization
- Political Geography:
- Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and Korea
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