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322. The Institutional Setting of the NAFTA Debate in the United States
- Author:
- Miguel Ángel Valverde
- Publication Date:
- 02-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
- Abstract:
- The objective of this paper is to analyze the institutional setting of the NAFTA debate in the United States, focusing on the interaction between the Presidency and Congress, in the formulation of foreign commercial policy. A series of arrangements have tamed confrontation between the Executive and Legislative powers, reconciling their institutional biases. THese arrangements channel and contain domestic demands for protectionism, favoring international trade liberalization negotiations.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United States, Asia, and North America
323. George Russell Centre Newsletter No. 4, VAT Administration: Is Reform Necessary?
- Publication Date:
- 06-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- EastWest Institute
- Abstract:
- The fourth regular round table discussion, organized by the George Russell Centre for Corporate Competitiveness (GRCCC) within the framework of the open discussion "The Future of Russia: Developing Global Competitiveness" took place on July 11, 2003 in the Moscow Centre of the EastWest Institute. The theme of the round table was: "VAT Administration: Is Reform Necessary?". Leading Russian experts, largely members of the George Russell Centre expert group, participated in the discussion.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Asia, and Moscow
324. Sino-Japanese Relations Entering A New Stage- With the Trend of the Times, Broader Perspective as A Fresh Starting Point
- Author:
- Yang Bojiang
- Publication Date:
- 01-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- Relations between China and Japan have weathered 30 turbulent years since the normalization of diplomatic ties in 1972. This period of 30 years can be divided roughly in half into the first and second parts. From 1972 to the late 1980s, when the world had the bipolar polygenetic political and military structures, the two countries took down the barriers of the Cold War to restore normal exchanges between the states and their cooperative relationship achieved rapid development in areas of trade, finance and technologies. In the period between the end of the Cold War and the present day, the bilateral relationship has entered the new stage where friction and collaboration coexist as do competition and cooperation amid the progress in political multipolarization and economic globalization of the world.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
325. Asian Oil Market Outlook: Role of the Key Players
- Author:
- Jeffrey Brown and Kang Wu
- Publication Date:
- 10-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- The Asia Pacific region's dynamic oil market is marked by strong growth in consumption, declining regional oil production, and over capacity in its highly competitive oil-refining sector. Its "key players" are China, India, Indonesia, Japan, and South Korea—a group that includes the region's five top consumers and three of its major producers—and developments in these countries will have commercial and strategic implications for the whole region. On the consumption side, Japan's slow growth in demand has failed to dampen regional growth, which is now driven by China and India's fast growing thirst for oil. On the supply side, Indonesia's inevitable transition to a net oil importer highlights the trend toward growing dependence on Middle East oil, which already comprises 42–90 percent of imports among the key players. In response to this trend, China, Japan, and South Korea are pushing to acquire overseas oil reserves, with Japan and China already locked in a fierce competition for projected Russian supplies—a type of struggle that will likely become more commonplace.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, Indonesia, Middle East, India, Asia, and South Korea
326. The Move to Preferential Trade in the Western Pacific Rim
- Author:
- John Ravenhill
- Publication Date:
- 06-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Western Pacific Rim states have been slow to participate in preferential trade agreements (PTAs). In the past four years, however, more than 40 PTAs involving these economies have been proposed or are being implemented. For the first time, Japan and China have either signed or are negotiating bilateral or plurilateral agreements. The new interest in PTAs reflects the perception that they have been successful in other parts of the world, and is reinforced by dissatisfaction with the region's existing trade groupings. Although arguments can be made in favor of PTAs, they amplify political considerations in trade agreements, may adversely affect the political balance in participating countries, impose costs on nonparticipants, and deplete scarce negotiating resources. Nevertheless, the number of western Pacific Rim states participating in PTAs continues to climb. Northeast Asian countries have been following Europe in exploiting loopholes in WTO rules on PTAs to protect their noncompetitive sectors, thereby strengthening their political positions, which will likely make global liberalization more difficult.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, Asia, and Australia/Pacific
327. The Strategic Importance of US-Korea Economic Relations
- Author:
- Marcus Noland
- Publication Date:
- 05-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Despite the passage of 50 years since an armistice ended military hostilities, the Korean peninsula remains divided, a Cold War vestige that seemingly has been unaffected by the evolution that has occurred elsewhere. If anything, US confrontation with North Korea—a charter member of its “axis of evil”—has intensified in recent years. Yet today, increasing numbers of South Koreans, accustomed to living for decades in the shadows of the North's forward-deployed artillery, do not regard the North as a serious threat. Growing prosperity and confidence in the South, in marked contrast to the North's isolation and penury, have transformed fear and loathing into pity and forbearance. Instead, it is the United States, an ocean away, that regards the North and its nuclear weapons program with alarm. As the United States has focused on the nuclear program, its ally, South Korea, has observed the North Koreans' nascent economic reforms and heard their talk of conventional forces reduction, and the gap in the two countries' respective assessments of the North Korean threat has widened dangerously, threatening to undermine their alliance.
- Topic:
- Security and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, Israel, East Asia, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and Korea
328. The Difficulties of Discerning What's Too Tight: Taylor Rules and Japanese Monetary Policy
- Author:
- Adam S. Posen and Kenneth N. Kuttner
- Publication Date:
- 12-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Observers have relied increasingly on simple reaction functions, such as the Taylor rule, to assess the conduct of monetary policy. Applying this approach to deflationary or near-zero inflation environments is problematic, however, and this paper examines two shortcomings of particular relevance to the Japanese case of the last decade. One is the unusually high degree of uncertainty associated with potential output in an environment of prolonged stagnation and deflation. Consequently, reaction function-based assessments of Japanese monetary policy are so sensitive to the chosen gauge of potential output as to be unreliable. The second shortcoming is the neglect of policy expectations, which become critically important as nominal interest rates approach zero. Using long-term bond yields, we identify five episodes since 1996 characterized by abrupt declines in Japanese inflation expectations. Policies undertaken by the Bank of Japan during this period did little to stabilize expectations, and the August 2000 interest rate increase appears to have intensified deflationary concerns.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Israel, East Asia, and Asia
329. The IMF's Dilemma in Argentina: Time for a New Approach to Lending?
- Author:
- Carol Graham and Paul Robert Masson
- Publication Date:
- 11-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- In recent years, the international financial system has faced tremendous challenges, from the Asia, Russia, and Brazil crises in the late 1990s, to Argentina's default and ensuing economic collapse in 2002 to new worries about a possible default in Brazil. An increasing number of observers are questioning the way the international financial institutions manage these crises. An alternative approach that is endorsed in principle by many—including Horst Köhler, the new managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF)—is a move toward more selective lending with fewer conditions, with the decision to lend based on a more general and ultimately political assessment of the recipient government's capacity to deliver on its promises. Argentina provides a potential test bed for this approach.
- Topic:
- International Organization and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Asia, Brazil, Argentina, South America, and Latin America
330. Strengthening Financial Sector Governance in Emerging Markets
- Author:
- Robert Litan, Michael Pomerleano, and V. Sundararajan
- Publication Date:
- 07-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- Policymakers and analysts are still sifting through the wreckage of the Asian financial crisis of 1997 and the subsequent crises in Russia, Turkey, and Argentina to discern key lessons so that similar crises will not recur. Some lessons are by now well understood. Pegged exchange rates can encourage excessive borrowing and expose countries to financial collapse when foreign exchange reserves run dry. Inadequate disclosures by both private companies and public bodies can lead to similar dangers. Although many factors undoubtedly contributed to these crises, it is now widely recognized that each suffered from a failure in “governance,” and in particular a failure in governance in their financial sectors. Accordingly, the World Bank Group, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the Brookings Institution devoted their fourth annual Financial Markets and Development Conference, held in New York from April 17-19, 2002, to the subject of financial sector governance in emerging markets. This conference report summarizes some of the highlights of the conference, whose full proceedings will be published as a Brookings book in the fall of 2002.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, Government, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Russia, New York, Turkey, Asia, and Argentina