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271. International Finance and the Developing World: The Next Twenty Years

Author:
Tony Addison
Publication Date:
02-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Much has changed in international finance in the twenty years since UNU-WIDER was founded. This paper identifies five broad contours of what we might expect in the next twenty years: the flow of capital from ageing societies to the more youthful economies of the South; the growth in the financial services industry in emerging economies and the consequences for their capital flows; the current strength in emerging market debt, and whether this represents a change in fundamentals or merely the effect of low global interest rates; the impact of globalization in goods markets in lowering inflation expectations, and therefore global bond yields; and the implications of the adjustment in global imbalances between Asia (in particular China) and the United States for emerging bond markets as a whole. The paper ends by noting the paradox that today we see ever larger amounts of capital flowing across the globe in search of superior investment returns, and yet the financing needs of the poorer countries are still largely unmet.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

272. Is the IMF business model still valid?

Author:
Ángel Ubide
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Since the Asian crisis, the IMF has undergone a deep process of soul searching, trying to extract lessons from the experience. External criticism has been abundant, and basically all three of the IMF's main areas of work – surveillance, crisis prevention and resolution, and poverty reduction – have been called into question. Several years later, there is a feeling that not much has been achieved, and key questions remain unanswered. As the world business cycle matures, and thus the likelihood of further crises slowly increases, it is critical for the stability of the world financial system to discuss what the IMF's business model should look like.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Asia

273. Oxfam Publishing: No Soft Landing: As China opens its markets, US subsidies are making life hard for cotton farmers

Author:
Phoenix Leung Pui Fung
Publication Date:
12-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Cotton is an important crop for some of the poorest areas of China, and millions of cotton farmers depend on it for their livelihoods. Cotton's high economic returns have helped, and continue to help, bring many farmers in the poor western provinces of Gansu and Xinjiang out of poverty. Cotton production is not only essential to the development of China's textile industry; it is also a labour-intensive crop that demands a large workforce in rural areas. It has thus contributed to easing the pressures of rural underdevelopment in China, at a time when the country is faced with seriously high levels of surplus labour and lack of development potential in rural areas.
Topic:
Globalization and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

274. Oxfam Publishing: Mind the Gap: Countdown to Viet Nam's Accession to the WTO

Author:
Mary Kirkbride
Publication Date:
12-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Viet Nam is entering its final stages of accession negotiations. Although it is unlikely that it will achieve the goal of joining the World Trade Organisation (WTO) by the time of the Hong Kong Ministerial Conference in December, negotiators want a swift end to the process. Analysis of progress madebetween the two Working Party meetings of April and September 2005 reveals that Working Party members are continuing to demand further concessions from the Vietnamese negotiators. If agreed to, these concessions could have potentially damaging consequences for Viet Nam's ability to safeguard the livelihoods of its poorest people.
Topic:
Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and World Trade Organization
Political Geography:
Asia and Vietnam

275. U.S. Trade Policy Toward China: Discrimination and its Implications

Author:
Rachel McCulloch and Chad P. Bown
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
The bilateral relationship with China has become a major focus of U.S. trade policy. This paper examines recent U.S. policy toward imports from China, highlighting important explicitly and implicitly discriminatory elements. Discriminatory restrictions on U.S. trade with China protect competing domestic industries as well as non-Chinese foreign suppliers with an established presence in the U.S. market. Unlike discriminatory U.S. treatment of Japan in the 1980s, in which "gray-area" measures like voluntary export restraints were prominent, most U.S. actions toward China are fully consistent with current WTO rules, including the special terms of China's 2001 WTO accession. However, as with earlier discriminatory actions directed primarily at Japan, U.S. trade policy toward China is likely to have complex effects on global trade flows and may produce outcomes far different from those intended.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

276. Economic Effects of Free Trade between the EU and Russia

Author:
Pekka Sulamaa and Mika Widgrén
Publication Date:
05-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
This study simulates the economic effects of eastern enlargement of the EU and an EU-Russian free trade area. The main emphasis of the paper is on the effect this would have on the Russian economy. The simulations were carried out with a GTAP computable general equilibrium model, using the most recent GTAP database 6.0 beta, which takes the former Europe agreements between the EU-15 and the eight new Central and Eastern European member states into account. The results confirm the earlier findings that a free trade agreement with the EU is beneficial for Russia in terms of total output but not necessarily in terms of economic welfare when measured by equivalent variation. The main reason behind this is the deterioration that would occur in Russia's terms of trade. Improved productivity in Russia would, however, make the free trade agreement with the EU advantageous.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

277. Institutions, Restoration, and Revolution

Author:
Leon Aron
Publication Date:
03-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
In its pursuit of an authoritarian recentralization of Russian politics and a greater state presence in the economy, the Putin government is increasingly steering Russia away from the liberalizing course that has characterized the previous decade and a half.
Topic:
Economics, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

278. Putin's Risks

Author:
Leon Aron
Publication Date:
01-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Western and Russian observers alike have watched with mounting concern for slightly more than a year as President Vladimir Putin has tried to consolidate the Kremlin's control over Russia's politics and economy. From the campaign against the YUKOS oil company to the elimination of regional elections, Putin—a growing chorus of critics argues—is leading the country toward authoritarianism.
Topic:
Economics, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

279. China and the World Economy Workshop. Conference Summary

Author:
Robert Kapp
Publication Date:
12-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Peter Bottelier, the principal presenter of this topic, opened by noting that much discussion now surrounds the evolving “new line” embodied in China's economic plans for the next five years. The three agricultural questions, self-innovation, regional adjustment, opening up of a win-win “harmonious society,” and economizing on energy use: what do these and other much-discussed new terms really mean?
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Asia

280. China as Producer: Chinese Industry After 25 Years of Reform

Author:
Thomas Rawski
Publication Date:
12-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Beginning with the start of reform in the late 1970s, China's industry has recorded impressive growth of output, labor productivity, and exports as well as dramatic upgrading of the quality and variety of output. These gains have occurred in spite of difficulties arising from lethargic state enterprises, inadequate corporate governance, excessive official intervention, corruption, and weak financial institutions.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Asia