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262. The Asian Economic Revolution and Canadian Trade Policy
- Author:
- John Whalley
- Publication Date:
- 08-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- This paper discusses the broad orientation of Canada's trade policy relative to two major historical phases of development based on a secure national market behind the National Policy from 1879 until the 1930s, and progressive integration with the United States (US) through Bilateral Agreements (1930s), the Auto Pact (1965), the Canada-US Free Trade Agreement (1987) and the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) (1994). Currently, Canada exports approximately 85% to the US, but imports from China account for 8% and are growing at over 20% a year. Sharply unbalanced (surplus) trade with the US is counterbalanced by unbalanced deficit trade with China. A scenario of elevated growth in Asia (principally China, India, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations or ASEAN) poses challenges of relative disintegration from North America and growing global integration centered on Asia. Seemingly a series of implications follow; including positioning Canada within the emerging network of regional agreements in Asia, more resourcebased and Western Canada focused trade and infrastructure development, and responding to capital market integration with Asia. Broader issues include the potential adjustments facing Central Canada as Asian imports of manufactures displace both imported manufactures from the US and domestic production are raised.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Canada, Asia, and North America
263. Trade, Development and the Doha Round: A Sure Bet or a Train Wreck?
- Author:
- Daniel Drache
- Publication Date:
- 03-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- This paper explores the strategy and assumptions that are pushing the Doha Round into dangerously troubled waters, and it assesses the different agendas on the table. It summarizes how we reached the current deadlock, and examines the state of the WTO's legal dispute mechanism. It then critically assesses how divergences play out in the key policy areas of water exports, generic drugs, textile quotas, service-sector liberalization, and agricultural subsidies. Lastly, it will try to answer the question of whether Doha is 'a sure bet, or a train wreck' by looking at several of the prospects and possible scenarios that face the WTO post-Hong Kong. What is now evident is that a target deal seems more distant than ever. It would appear that evolution is not going to be kind to the WTO. The Doha Round is too complex which increases the possibility of failure; too intrusive to assuage many of global civil society's concerns and too anti-development for numerous countries in the Global South to come on board. Paradoxically, many countries are proving to be resilient and innovative when faced with the negotiating impasse and are not pushing the panic button. The global economy is not drifting towards protectionism and the core trading nations seem ready to accept a less dynamic WTO.
- Topic:
- Development, International Trade and Finance, and Third World
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
264. China and the Depreciating U.S. Dollar
- Author:
- Richard C. K. Burdekin
- Publication Date:
- 01-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Over the past five years, U.S. exports to China have been dwarfed by imports from that country, with the resulting trade deficit igniting a bout of China bashing reminiscent of the Japan bashing of the 1980s. A major culprit in the trade imbalance, according to many U.S. analysts and policymakers, is China's currency: the renminbi, they say, is too cheap relative to the dollar. Some are calling for high tariffs on Chinese goods or for further exchange-rate adjustment that would revalue the renminbi significantly upward, making Chinese goods less competitive. But with just 10.4 percent of total U.S. trade attributed to China in the first half of 2005, it is unrealistic that any renminbi exchange-rate adjustment could rein in the burgeoning U.S. trade deficit. And if the adjustment were drastic the United States could be the big loser: driving China out of the market for U.S. treasuries would most likely have calamitous consequences, not only for the dollar but for U.S. credit markets and for the U.S. economy in general.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, Asia, and North America
265. Roaring tiger or lumbering elephant?
- Author:
- Mark P Thirlwell
- Publication Date:
- 09-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- In the past, there has been plenty of scepticism about India's economic prospects: for many, Charles De Gaulle's aphorism regarding Brazil, that it was a country with enormous potential, and always would be, seemed to apply equally well to the South Asian economy. While the 'tiger' economies of East Asia were enjoying economic take-off on the back of investment- and export-led growth, the lumbering Indian elephant seemed set to be a perpetual also-ran in the growth stakes. Yet following a series of reform efforts, first tentatively in the 1980s, and then with much more conviction in the 1990s, the Indian economic model has been transformed, and so too India's growth prospects. High profile successes in the new economy sectors of information technology (IT) and business process outsourcing (BPO), along with faster economic growth, triggered a widespread rethink regarding India's economic prospects, and a wave of foreign portfolio investment flowed into Indian markets. Perhaps India was set to be a tiger after all.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- South Asia, India, East Asia, Asia, and Brazil
266. The Doha Round after Hong Kong
- Author:
- Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Jeffrey J. Schott
- Publication Date:
- 02-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Trade ministers from member countries of the World Trade Organization (WTO) convened in Hong Kong in December 2005 to jump-start the flagging Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations. The Hong Kong ministerial was not a complete bust. But ministers accomplished only the minimum necessary to keep the Doha Round moving forward—toward an undetermined and probably distant conclusion.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Asia
267. Regional Inequality, Industry Agglomeration and Foreign Trade: The Case of China
- Author:
- Yin Ge
- Publication Date:
- 09-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- How do foreign trade and foreign direct investment affect regional inequality? Foreign trade and investment may affect internal economic geography, and the resulting industry agglomeration may contribute to regional inequality. This paper provides empirical evidence supporting this linkage. The results indicate that the increasing regional inequality in China has been accompanied by an increase in the degree of regional specialization and industry agglomeration. Foreign trade and foreign investment are closely related to industry agglomeration in China. Industries dependent on foreign trade and FDI are more likely to locate in regions with easy access to foreign markets, and exporting industries have a higher degree of agglomeration.
- Topic:
- Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
268. Financial Sector Development and Growth: The Chinese Experience
- Author:
- Mingming Zhou and Iftekhar Hasan
- Publication Date:
- 08-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper documents the financial and institutional developments of China during the past two decades, when China was successfully transformed from a rigid centralplanning economy to a dynamic market economy following its unique path. We empirically examine the relationship between financial development and economic growth in China by employing a panel sample covering 31 Chinese provinces during the important transition period 1986-2002. Our evidence suggests that the development of financial markets, institutions, and instruments have been robustly associated with economic growth in China.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
269. Excess Credit and the South Korean Crisis
- Author:
- Bassam A. Fattouh and Panicos O. Demetriades
- Publication Date:
- 08-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- We provide a novel empirical analysis of the South Korean credit market that reveals large volumes of excess credit since the late 1970s, indicating that a sizeable proportion of total credit was being used to refinance unprofitable projects. Our findings are consistent with theoretical literature that suggests that soft budget constraints and overborrowing were significant factors behind the Korean financial crisis of 1997-98.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
- Political Geography:
- Asia, South Korea, and Korea
270. Trade Liberalization, Environment and Poverty: A Developing Country Perspective
- Author:
- M.S. Quresh
- Publication Date:
- 04-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper revisits the pollution haven hypothesis in the context of Pakistan by offering a systematic analysis of its trade and production patterns. Using bilateral trade statistics from 1975-2003, we test the hypotheses that Pakistan's net exports of pollutionintensive products have increased to the OECD countries. We also investigate if the stringency of environmental governance in the importing countries plays a role in determining Pakistan's exports of pollution-intensive products. The results reveal that there has been a change in the composition of output and exports towards pollutionintensive manufacturing that parallels the opening of the economy. Overall, the findings appear to be in favour of the pollution haven hypothesis and call for effective environmental policy response for poverty alleviation and sustainable development.
- Topic:
- Development, International Trade and Finance, and Poverty
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan and Asia